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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on August 29th, 2019. Ben Rolfe's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
A relatively quiet day is made even worse with a virtually even split in the slate on Thursday. There are four early games, leaving just six on the later "featured" slate that we will be focussing on. Things get worse when you see the caliber of pitchers on the mound in this slate. Out of the 12 pitchers, nine leave a pretty sour taste in the mouth, and even two of the remaining three have struggled recently. This is going to be a fascinating day for DFS.
The biggest favorite on the slate the LA Dodgers, but the fact we do not have any favorite better than -200 tells you how strange this day is. Other favorites better than -150 are the Mets and Rangers, which explains where our "big-three" pitchers come from on this slate. This slate has some pretty random totals as well, the Rockies and Pirates game is up at 13.5, the Rangers and Mariners are at 10 and then the other four games are between 7.5-and-9.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 8/29/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @benrolfe15.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Jacob deGrom, NYM (vs. CHC) - $12,000
This is the only safe bet for me on the slate. Facing the Cubs is never ideal, but deGrom has been a beast once again this season. Since the All-Star break, he has scored less than 20 points just once and has scored over 30 points on four occasions. He averages 22.8 fantasy points per game in this one and should offer both a solid floor and the ability to put up impressive numbers in a start in which the weather is expected to lean towards the pitchers.
Robert Dugger, MIA (vs. CIN) - $5,800
Outside of deGrom, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Lance Lynn you can stick a pin in this and just hope. Dugger takes my fancy because he has around a 20% K rate in the minors and he is pitching in Miami. His first major league start was at the Mets and he was flogged. The Reds are an up-and-down team and I am banking on Duggar to be able to bring me home double-digit points in this one. It might not be pretty, but this is an ugly slate of pitching at the cheaper end.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Carson Kelly, ARI (vs. LAD) - $3,700
Kelly has incredible numbers this season against left-handed pitchers. In 87 PA he has hit six home runs, has a .356 batting average, a .356 ISO and a .466 wOBA. Combine that with Ryu looking mortal in his last two starts against the Braves and Yankees and Kelly could be an amazing value on this slate.
1B - Daniel Vogelbach, SEA (@ TEX) - $4,100
Lynn has been good this year so picking against him is a little tough. However, he has had some issues with left-handed hitters this season, with a .318 wOBA against and an opposing batting average of .279. He also has a 4.03 ERA at home so this is the spot to try and target him. 23 of Vogelbach's 28 home runs have come off of right-handed pitchers, and his .281 ISO with .370 wOBA suggests he could do some real damage in hitter-friendly Texas.
2B - Nick Solak, TEX (vs. SEA) - $3,700
This is just about value for me as Solak is relatively dirt cheap and has started really strongly in the majors. He is currently hitting .357 with one home run and two doubles, having got on base in eight of his nine games so far. Felix Hernandez is making his first start back from injury and could be pretty shaky. This should be a nice spot for the Rangers.
3B - Kyle Seager, SEA(@ TEX) - $4,400
This is the same theory as Vogelbach when it comes to Lynn's struggles against left-handed hitters. However, with Seager, it is about his current form. 12 home runs since the All-Star break and nine in August are impressive. He is also hitting .329 in the month of August and his ISO and wOBA are both over .400.
SS - Amed Rosario, NYM (vs. CHC) - $4,000
Rosario is hitting well against left-handed pitchers this season. Five of his 12 home runs have come against lefties and he has a .322 batting average against them. He has struggled at home, but at a position, with very little value I'll look to ride his .385 wOBA and .235 ISO against lefties, especially given Jon Lester is becoming a bit of a random number generator recently.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Shin-Soo Choo, TEX (vs. SEA) - $4,800
Sticking with the plan of targetting King Felix I have decided to use one of the cheaper Rangers outfielders for this one. Choo does not hit lefties well, but against right-handed pitchers, he has a .288 batting average, 15 home runs, a .214 ISO and a .382 wOBA.
Joc Pederson, LAD (@ ARI) - $4,300
Pederson is back baby! Four home runs and a .242 batting average in August is all I need to go back to the lefty slugger. All 27 of his home runs have come off of right-handed pitchers and Merrill Kelly is a pitcher to target. His road numbers are pretty poor, but a .287 ISO against righties is too hard for me to pass up from a hitter with two home runs in his last four games.
Jason Heyward, CHC (@ NYM) - $3,400
I just wanted some value and even if that means I have to go against deGrom I will. Heyward is leading off and hitting .276 this season against right-handed pitchers. He should see plenty of opportunities and can hopefully get on base and be driven in at some point. His price is so low that really anything you get is a bonus, especially if you want to try and get two expensive pitchers in your lineup today.
