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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/21/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! MLB provides six games to comb through as we officially kick off the summer. The Braves and Mets have a double-header, so we lose a Jacob deGrom start, but there are still several enticing arms to roster in our lineups. The first pitch on Monday will be thrown in Baltimore at 7:05 pm ET when the Astros and Orioles begin their series. Then, the West Coast nightcap is some must-watch baseball between the Dodgers and the Padres at 10:10 pm ET. As for the weather, there's no rain in the forecast, but the wind is expected to be blowing out in Camden Yards and blowing in at Wrigley Field.
I want to play Yu Darvish tonight, but I can't ignore how lethal the Dodgers can be against right-handed pitching. Since May 1, they only strike out 20.54 percent of the time and crush righties with a .339 weighted On Base Average and 119 weighted Runs Created Plus. I'll likely have some exposure to Darvish on Monday, but not as much as I usually would like. Outside of Darvish, there is Tyler Mahle, Frankie Montas, Julio Urias above $9,000, and I have this strange gut feeling about Merrill Kelly doing some good things against Milwaukee in Arizona.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/21/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, find me on Twitter and ask away.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Tyler Mahle - P, CIN at MIN ($9,800)
The last time Mahle was on the mound, he produced the best DraftKings start of his career. The righty threw six innings of one-run ball in Milwaukee, allowing three hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. His performance produced a massive 35.3 fantasy points and surely won a lot of contests for DFS players. It was the second time in his career with 12 strikeouts (the last time was 2018), and it was the third time in his previous four starts where he's scored at least 28 DraftKings points. In addition, Mahle is playing some of the best baseball of his career in June. The 26-year old is sporting a 2.63 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and an elite 36.6 percent strikeout rate in his last four starts. While the Twins aren't an offense to target, their 23 percent K rate and 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers shouldn't scare anyone away from using Mahle in any contest.
Frankie Montas - P, OAK at TEX ($9,400)
You could go with some riskier arms with your SP2, but I want to make sure I get my pitchers right on a six-game slate. Montas is in a great spot to continue his dominant run of form against a weak-hitting Texas outfit. While his season-long line isn't the most glamorous (4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), recently, he's been racking up the strikeouts. In Montas' last five starts, the right-handed hurler has 36 strikeouts in 30 innings to go along with a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The strikeouts are crucial because the 3.30 ERA means he's allowing runs, but in DK, we get a lot of value from the Ks. He's got at least seven in four of his last five starts, and his 21.06 FPPG average in his last five games puts him firmly in the mix as a low SP1 or expensive and reliable SP2.
Other options: Yu Darvish vs. LAD ($10,200), Julio Urias at SD ($9,100), Merrill Kelly vs. MIL ($7,400), Brett Anderson at ARI ($6,500),
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Tyler Stephenson - C, CIN at J.A. Happ ($3,700)
Good things happen when Tyler Stephenson faces left-handed pitching. While he and the Reds won't be in their home run-friendly ballpark, a matchup with J.A. Happ should soothe any concerns for DFS players. In 2021, Stephenson is slashing .295/.354/.614 when facing southpaws while tagging them for eight extra-base hits (three home runs) and nine RBI in just 44 at-bats. The Reds haven't seen a lefty on the mound since June 15, but Stephenson was right there on the lineup card as the cleanup hitter behind the likes of Jonathan India and Nick Castellanos.
Ryan Mountcastle - 1B/OF, BAL vs. Jake Odorizzi ($4,100)
The Orioles gave Mountcastle a day off on June 15th, and he's been electric since the mental rest day. In the five games since his return, the outfielder is slashing .524/.524/.1.095 with five runs, four home runs, and eight RBI. These results are a far cry from his season-long .764 OPS. Mountcastle will see Odorizzi on the mound tonight, and he should be a part of a contrarian stack versus a top-rated Houston lineup.
Jose Altuve - 2B, HOU at Keegan Akin ($5,500)
Altuve has handled the transition back to the leadoff spot in Houston superbly this season. In 60 games, the 2017 MVP owns a .883 OPS with 53 runs, 16 home runs, and 39 RBI. His RBI total is relatively impressive for a leadoff man, thanks to how dangerous Houston is up and down their lineup. The Astros shouldn't have any problems putting up a few crooked numbers on Keegan Akin tonight. Since May 1, the Astros have put together a .356 wOBA and a 132 wRC+ against southpaws. While expensive, Altuve is going to get plenty of chances to score and drive in runs. Plus, he may even blast a ball out of the park, which he's done six times in his last 10 games.
Abraham Toro - 3B, HOU at Keegan Akin ($2,100)
It's not very often a player goes 7-for-11 in a weekend series, and then DraftKings lowers his salary cap hit. However, that's where we find ourselves with Abraham Toro after he took on the everyday role to replace the injured Alex Bregman (quad). In his three games against the White Sox, Toro earned a 1.576 OPS with three runs, a home run, five RBI, and a stolen base. Unfortunately, he hit in the bottom third of the lineup each day, but, as previously mentioned, this Astros lineup is so explosive that even the seventh hitter in their lineup can put up a ton of fantasy points.
Jorge Polanco - 2B/SS, MIN vs. Tyler Mahle ($4,600)
After a sluggish start to the 2021 season, Polanco is turning things around despite the Twins' struggle in the standings. Since Memorial Day (May 31), the infielder slashes .297/.338/.568 with a .382 wOBA and 144 wRC+ to back up the surface stats. His last 10 games have been particularly spectacular, with a .973 OPS to go along with 11 runs, three doubles, three home runs, six RBI, and two stolen bases. While Tyler Mahle shouldn't have a problem against most of this Twins lineup, Polanco is one player I can see succeeding on Monday night.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Tommy Pham - OF, SD vs. Julio Urias ($4,600)
The adage "Patience is a virtue" comes to mind when looking at Tommy Pham's 2021 game log. Before a May 15th game versus the Cardinals, Pham slashed .186/.314/.196 and looked powerless at the plate. Thankfully, he's put all that behind him and has been crushing the baseball for the last five weeks. In the 34 games since his season-low slash line, the 33-year old is sporting a 1.001 OPS with 26 runs, seven doubles, two triples, six homers, 16 RBI, and eight stolen bases. He's averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game in this stretch and is flourishing atop the Padres lineup.
Michael Brantley - OF, HOU at Keegan Akin ($3,900)
Brantley is one of the oldest players in the Houston lineup, but he's a steadying presence for a lineup filled with power. When you need a single, he slaps a base hit. When you need a double, he hammers a two-bagger. His hitting ability is so good; you're legitimately surprised when he makes an out. Over his last 10 games, the four-time All-Star is hitting .500/.556/.750 and is entering Camden Yards in peak form. Despite seeing a lefty on the mound, Brantley can still contribute to your DFS lineup. At $3,900, he should be relatively easy to fit into a Houston stack and provide a less popular avenue to grab a piece of the Astros.
Aristides Aquino - OF, CIN at J.A. Happ ($3,500)
My home-run hunting pick for Monday is Aquino. He's made three appearances since returning from the IL, but two were in Milwaukee, and one of those two same him smash the ball out of the park. With Minnesota sending J.A. Happ to the mound, the Reds should switch out Tyler Naquin for Aquino, but Scott Heineman could steal a spot start. So make sure to check Cincinnati's lineup as soon as possible to either add or remove Aquino from your lineup. The slugger doesn't make a ton of contact (career .236 batting average), but when he does, it goes a long way (.298 ISO).
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (Keegan Akin, LHP)
- Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (Kyle Gibson, RHP)
- Sneaky stack: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish, RHP)
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