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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/9/21. Dave Swan's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's Sunday in Major League Baseball, which means we've got a massive over on Draftkings. In this space, we are going to focus solely on the main slate portion.
The pitching on Sunday is a fun one because we get deGrom and a ton of value plays. The way to beat the competition is by grabbing the correct SP2, at a reasonable price. Next, look at the right stack to attack. Some of the highest implied run totals on the day belong to the Chicago White Sox(4.13), Boston Red Sox(4.78), and Texas Rangers(4.20). Obviously, this is where we want to shift our focus to finding value bats to go along with the stack. However, as a result of so many games, we can expect the field to spread roster percentages evenly on the field.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/9/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Jacob deGrom - P, NYM vs. ARI ($11,700)
deGrom is pitching out of his mind! He touts an unreal 15.17 K/9 over the course of 35 innings pitched. Is he going deep into games? You betcha, the Mets ace is averaging seven innings pitched per start. On top of the massive strikeout upside, we have to squint to see the tiny 1.38 SIERA as well. Also, the matchup is incredibly favorable for deGrom. The Diamondbacks carry an 88 wRC+ vs. RHP and a .688 OPS. Can anything stop deGrom from being the top SP on Sunday's slate? Well, health possibly. deGrom was scratched from his last start, and we are going to pray it keeps some of the roster% off of him while we rack up the DFS points over the field.
Kenta Maeda - P, MIN @ DET ($8,300)
Maeda has not enjoyed the first six outings of 2021. Although, his 5.02 ERA suggests quite a bit of bad luck because the SIERA(3.91) tells a much different story. Those not entirely sure what SIERA means are basically a metric that tries to focus on just the pitcher's skills and taking away anything in the field. I know this can be a little tricky, but trust me, go with SIERA for a DFS indicator. Back to Maeda, ok, we want to focus on the strikeouts. Unfortunately, Maeda's strikeouts have not been there like we expected. However, the uptick in his fastball usage a little in the last outing, and the strikeouts returned. So let's take a gamble at this discounted price that he figured things out and the Ks return.
Other options: Lucas Giolito ($9,500) @ KC, Sandy Alcantara ($9,400) vs MIL
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Danny Jansen - C, TOR @ HOU ($2,400)
This is a total punt play at catcher. Well, not entirely. The Blue Jays' catcher is white-hot in the last week by smashing 3 HRs in his last three games. So he might very well be breaking out of the putrid funk he was in to begin the season. Another reason to enjoy punting with Jansen is he has some power vs. RHP-three of his four MLB seasons have a .200 ISO or better. Either way, at only $2,400 and in a very hitter-friendly park, we are taking a chance on him.
Jose Abreu - 1B, CWS @ KC ($4,700)
Abreu is the start of a three-person stack vs. Mike Minor. Let's get the Minor disdain out here. The Royals' southpaw gives up a TON of loud contact. His barrel rate is over 10%, again. On top of the great quality of contact, batters walk a bunch and collect plenty of hits. This makes him an ideal place to stack against.
Now, shift the focus to Abreu. The surface stats are rather unkind to him. Let's dig deep past those and examine the player as a whole. What sticks out the most is Abreu's dominance over LHP. In exactly 1000 PAs vs. LHP, Abreu showcases an ISO north of .240 and a 149 wRC+. It's safe to say when a southpaw is on the mound; you need to consider Abreu in your builds.
Nick Madrigal - 2B, CWS @ KC ($2,600)
Sifting through the 2B position made me nauseous. With none of the notable names looking worthy of a top-end salary, we punt yet again. But, in a good way. Madrigal gets a salary reduction because of the absolute void of power. However, he makes up for it by collecting hits to all fields and piling up runs. Remember, those points add up in DFS, and he likely gets planted in the 2-hole. Please keep it simple; let's hope he picks up double-digit points, and we let our upper echelon bats do the mashing.
Rafael Devers - 3B, BOS @ BAL ($5,200)
Speaking of upper echelon mashers, the buy-down on Madrigal allows us to smash Devers in our build. Dever's is having his way with RHP to begin 2021. In 83 at-bats, he has served six long balls into the stands and touts a .912 OPS. The 97th percentile brings on this destruction of baseballs in barrel% and 99th percentile in xwOBA. Now, pitchers are getting smart and trying to pitch around Devers, so the BB% has spiked to 12.1%. We hate walks because HRs score more. However, the good news, Devers is swinging in the zone more than ever(81%), and the .566 xwOBAcon is sizzling. He is locked and loaded at the dish with a terrific matchup.
Tim Anderson - SS, CWS @ KC ($5,200)
The last person left in the White Sox stack is Tim Anderson. Oddly, Anderson is not experiencing his superior plate skills vs. LHP yet, but it's only a 15 PA sample size. However, in nearly 700 at-bats vs. LHP, Anderson is 31% better than MLB-average in wRC+. Regardless, the 2021 season is still very young, and plenty of time for Anderson's stats to even out. Today is a perfect spot to see this happen because Minor tends to give up many fly balls. But, wait, let's not forget Anderson's elite sprint speed and thievery on the basepaths(6 SB tied for 8th in MLB).
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Joey Gallo - OF, TEX vs. SEA ($3,700)
Gallo is a boom or bust play, typically in GPP formats. The masses might see left-handed bat vs. southpaw and dismiss—shame on them for being so foolish. Fortunately, we know Gallo rakes vs. LHP. He carries an outlandish .287 ISO against southpaws in nearly 600 plate appearances. This year is no different; against lefties, Gallo has already mashed three into the bleachers and has a higher OPS than when he faces an RHP. Easy tournament play here!
Tyler O'Neill - OF, STL vs. COL ($2,700)
Let's start by looking at the matchup against German Marquez. Again, the masses love to flock to Marquez anytime he is out of Coors Field. However, this year has not been a typical season for Marquez because he is getting torched both home and away. Let's take that leap of faith and hope that trend continues.
The matchup is not the only reason to roster O'Neill. In general, he is also laying waste to RHP, as seen by the .515 SLG% and .258 ISO. Furthermore, in terms of quality of contact, he is a beast. The 15.1% barrel rate and .578 xwOBAcon make him a likely HR candidate. He could be a sneaky slate-breaker because the expected stats suggest he has been unlucky as well.
Adolis Garcia - OF, TEX vs SEA ($3,500)
Speaking of outfielders that go full beast mode, Adolis Garcia is destroying baseballs. The Texas outfielder swatted his eighth HR in only 97 at-bats. Furthermore, he is mashing LHP as well. Against southpaws, he is slugging .543 with .261 ISO-both elite numbers. We are already picking on Sheffield with Gallo, might as well get another Ranger in our build in case they put up a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Speaking of the matchup vs. Justus Sheffield. He is a great SP to target on the slate due to the hard contact he is allowing. The barrel rate is over 10% and a .409 xwOBAcon means he is probably leaving too many pitches over the plate. We like these types of pitchers, so target Adolis and his favorable salary.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (Mike Minor, LHP)
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners (Justus Sheffield, LHP)
- Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer, RHP)
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