RADIO
What's up RotoBallers. Welcome to our MMA preview for this weekend, and recommendations for MMA DFS games on DraftKings. My name is Brett Appley, or bbbomb in the DFS world, and I've been blogging about daily fantasy MMA since January, the same time DraftKings released MMA as an offering on their site.
My goal here with this column is to provide some helpful DFS analysis, and help you create a profitable MMA lineup on DraftKings with my analysis of the fighters. Follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley, and I'll try to answer any questions. MMA on DraftKings is simple: you select a DFS roster of five fighters in a salary cap format, and compete against other DFS players with different rosters.
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I've broken down my DraftKings MMA picks this week into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I'll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS - Cash Game Targets
1. Michael Bisping (9.8k)
If you've read any of my previous articles, you know that I love to target the main event. Why? Main events are scheduled for five rounds.
Every other fight on the card is scheduled for three rounds, which means fighters competing in the main event have a huge advantage. If main-event fighters get an early finish, thats great! But if they can't, they get to compete for an extra two rounds, which massively raises their floor on potential points accumulated.
Michael Bisping is fighting Thales Leites in Saturday's main event, and I think both guys make for good DFS plays. I will be following the line movements on Vegas until the fight starts, but for now, my first choice is Bisping.
He's an experienced kickboxer and his game is tailor-made for five-round fights. He's never had cardio issues and with his volume striking style, and he has potential to score a high number even in a decision. I believe his takedown and submission defense is strong enough to withstand Leites' attack, and I think he'll take a decision victory Saturday.
2. Joseph Duffy (11.2k)
Yes, Joseph Duffy is the most expensive fighter on the card Saturday, but he's well worth it.
DraftKings formulates their prices based on the Vegas odds, so although Duffy is pricy, he's also a massive favorite at -800. For reference, the second biggest favorite is Joanne Calderwood, but she's only a -350 favorite.
Additionally, Vegas has Duffy pegged with a -240 prop to finish the fight. With 100 points added for a first round finish, 70 for a second round finish, and 50 for a third round finish, targeting fighters who can land a KO or submission is always a profitable DFS strategy.
With Duffy's large lines to win and to finish, he makes a great DraftKings play in all DFS formats.
MMA DFS - GPP Targets
1. Ilir Latifi (10.5k)
I like Ilir Latifi in general this week, but I think he makes an especially good GPP play. He's affordable on DraftKings and has a good chance to win, but more importantly, he has a good chance to win the fight quickly.
Looking at specific Vegas props to finish is a good start, but generally targeting heavier weight classes make for great DFS tournament plays. They're strong, powerful, and slow (generally), which usually equates to less than ideal defense.
Latifi is a bulky LHW who is facing a slow kickboxer in Hans Stringer. But Stringer is simply not a good fighter. He is extremely slow and has poor technique in every aspect of his game. I expect Latifi to run through him and secure an early knockout.
2. Leonardo Mafra (8.9k)
You have to fit someone cheap in GPP and DFS cash games, and I like Leonardo Mafra to fill that spot this week. He's facing Stevie Ray, a Scottish born fighter with a home field advantage, but his test will be tough regardless.
Both Ray and Mafra have prospect potential written on them, and I think this fight is closer than the odds suggest. Mafra is an extremely powerful striker and if he can be aggressive, I think he can overwhelm Ray into the cage and out-strike him to victory.
Ray can certainly win though, and Vegas likes him to, but he'll most likely need to get Mafra to the ground. It's possible he gets that done, but for DraftKings tournaments, I love Mafra at his price.
MMA DFS - Fighters to Avoid
1. Joanne Calderwood (10.8k)
I like Joanne Calderwood as a person, she seems really nice, laid back and sincere. But in her last fight she showed an extreme mental weakness that literally cost her the fight.
She later said there were issues going on in her personal life that affected the bout, and that's reasonable, but for her DFS price this weekend, I can't trust her. She was the biggest favorite on the card in her last matchup, and she got blown out of the water. There's going to be every opportunity for her to win her next fight against Cortney Casey-Sanchez, but if she's not all there mentally, the fight will probably play out in a similar manner.
Do I think she gets the win? Yes. But for 10.8k on DraftKings, I'm either going to pay up for Duffy or pay down to Edwards or Latifi.
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley. Good luck RotoBaller, and I hope you enjoy!
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