Starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong is expected to open 2016 in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation. How long he stays there is a mystery. Breaking out in 2011 as a 34-year old, Vogelsong spent the last five seasons in San Francisco, where he benefitted from one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball. Over 135 innings in 2015, Vogelsong posted a 3.07 ERA at home and a 5.90 ERA away from AT&T Park. In 2014, the veteran maintained almost equally alarming splits, sporting a 3.06 ERA at home and 5.10 ERA on the road.
With super-prospect Tyler Glasnow breathing down his neck, Vogelsong, now 38, will need to pitch well out of the gate. His age and 2015 season suggest that will be a difficult task. The right-hander induced swings on only 26.7% of pitches outside the strike zone. Compared to 2014’s 28.5% and 2011’s 31.6%, the declining numbers suggest his ‘stuff’ is not as sharp as it once was. The 3.87 BB/9 rate Vogelsong maintained last year was the highest of his previous five seasons. Don’t bet on the veteran to bounce back in 2016.