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Fantasy is always unpredictable, especially in this most unparalleled of seasons. Even the best players put up dud performances. Not all duds are created equal though. Some disastrous performances are signs of more to come. Here are Week 7's studs turned duds.
Every week is a bad week for injuries in the NFL. As the non-Michael Thomas wide receivers finally return to lineups around the league, running backs hit the bench. Christian McCaffrey remains out. Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, and Miles Sanders also hit the sidelines this week. They remain joined by Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, and Raheem Mostert. All told, eight of the top 15 or so rushers in the league were out with injury in Week 7.
And things only got worse by playing the games. Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, Kenyan Drake, and Jeff Wilson Jr. now join the list of starting backs likely out with injury. Carson's absence gave Hyde a chance, but the veteran is now questionable himself for Week 8. The same substitution injury goes for Mostert and Wilson. The 49ers now impatiently await the return of Tevin Coleman just to have a healthy back behind Jimmy Garoppolo.
As callous as it sounds, though, injuries can be planned and played around. If we know a star player is out, replacements are acquired. What's worse is the bad performance by the guy you had to start. Even the best of players put up dud performances. Not all duds are created equal though. Some disastrous performances are signs of more to come. Here are Week 7's studs turned duds.
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A week after a disastrous performance for Elliott, things somehow got even worse in Week 7. Many folks, myself included, assumed the injury to Dak Prescott would actually boost Elliott's usage and fantasy value, even if Dallas took a tumble as a team. Instead, Elliott has been a mess, perhaps disinterested in playing behind a ravaged offensive line for a bottom-feeding club. He finished with 51 yards from scrimmage and leads the league in fumbles among non-quarterbacks, as well as drops among non-wide receivers (tied). That is quite the combo for a contender for best player in the league prior to the season.
With potentially having a rookie, seventh-round QB under center this week, it is hard to think the Dallas offense will generate anything. Yet it is also impossible to bench Elliott in this matchup considering how many other running backs are out. There is no plausible scenario where a fantasy manager would currently have two or three backs that are comfortably better options than Elliott.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
The Tampa Bay defense strikes again. The best defense in the game shut down Jacobs and company this past week. He finished with 10 carries for 17 yards. There must be some consideration for benching anyone and everyone facing the Buccaneers from here on out. However, as sited with Elliott, it would take some creatively lucky roster construction to actually have a viable replacement for, say, Alvin Kamara facing TB in Week 9. It just isn't plausible. As for Jacobs, he's fine moving forward, though his YPC average is somewhat alarming for the season as a whole. He is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. The Raiders are below average but not terrible in run block win rate. This is on Jacobs to be better next game.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes didn't do much of anything last week against Denver. He only completed 15 passes for 200 yards and one score. He didn't have a carry on the ground, and it all didn't really matter. KC blew out the Broncos thanks to a special teams score, as well as an interception for a touchdown. The Chiefs probably won't need Mahomes to do much of anything this week either, facing the New York Jets. Yet there remains the very real possibility that, instead of fading away and letting the rest of his team beat people, Mahomes blows up and destroys the Jets. It's why everyone who has him is starting him regardless.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs, and George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
With 86 yards between the two of them, the only two stud tight ends in the NFL failed to show up for fantasy managers in Week 7. Kelce's lack of production can be attributed to Mahomes and the Chiefs not even bothering to throw the ball that much in a blowout win. It was his first, legitimate bad game of the year and may be his last. Kelce is a stud tight end for a reason. Kittle has had a tougher go of things thanks to his own injuries, as well as injuries to his quarterbacks. In five games played, Kittle has two huge games and three games that were lacking. Of course, this past performance is eerily similar to Kelce's: a blowout win that didn't require his team to do much of anything in the passing game. Facing the Seattle pass defense in Week 8 should heal all wounds while offering a shootout-type environment that requires offensive firepower.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf finally had his first bad game of the season, at least offensively. He finished with season-lows in targets (five), catches (two), and yards (23). When a teammate is going like Tyler Lockett was, it make sense to keep looking his way. Lockett topped 50 fantasy points in PPR leagues and was simply out of his mind. Metcalf remains in good shape moving forward. He is averaging 16.2 targeted air yards and is seventh in the NFL in average YAC above expectation. The Seattle offense can certainly support two receiving playmakers to boot. With how many running backs the Seahawks have injured, Metcalf and Lockett may only see their targets rise from here.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is it for Evans managers, right? We're all throwing in the towel on his stud status. The dude is only an elite option when Tampa Bay is playing without its other elite weapons. Otherwise, Evans falls off Tom Brady's radar. He saw just two targets for the second straight game, and now Brady's buddy Antonio Brown enters the fray as well. It feels highly unlikely that Evans generates a high target total the rest of the year unless Chris Godwin gets hurt again. That makes Evans one of the least desirable fantasy players: a touchdown-dependent performer. He is only worth using if he reaches the end zone, and it is impossible to count on that despite his insane TD pace to start the year.
Evans is still worth rostering, but he should be treated as a situational starter now rather than a set-and-forget, stud starter.
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