X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Did We Sell Arizona's Offense Short?

Humidor hysteria. That's an appropriate term for the wave of panic that set into some fantasy owners once news of Arizona's plan to temper the baseball hit the mainstream media. We saw the numbers, heard the theories, and recalled how Colorado stopped being such a hitter's haven once they installed their humidor.

Wait, what? If that doesn't sound quite right, then you've caught on to the fact that some fantasy owners may have altered their strategies based on misleading information. Don't think it affected fantasy drafts? It sure did, with some big names seeing a drop in ADP in the weeks leading up to Opening Day.

Arizona's offense has looked just fine so far, cranking out eight runs in their first home tilt, nine in the second, and another 15 in the next three games combined. That makes a total of 32 runs in five games, good for an average of 6.4. Who doesn't love analyzing tiny sample sizes? After one week of play, let's see if we should have any post-draft remorse for Diamondbacks we faded or outright avoided for no good reason.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Not Dried-Up Just Yet

Concerns over the humidor were widespread and very real. The gist of the humidor theory is that offense will generally go down, specifically in terms of home runs. Our own Chris Zolli did an extensive analysis on this weeks ago as part of our 2018 MLB Draft Guide. Colorado installed theirs back in 2002 and it did the job, at least initially. The Rockies saw a drop of 61 homers and almost a full run per game between 2001 and 2002 (5.69 down to 4.80). They've never quite reached the same level of pre-humidor offense since, but they also aren't too far off these days (5.08 runs per game in 2017, 5.21 in 2016). In fact, over the last four years, the Rockies have averaged practically the same number of home runs per season (195) as they did in the four years preceding installation of the humidor (192).

Without getting too deep into the history of the Rockies early 2000s rosters, let's just say it wasn't the humidor alone to blame for that immediate decline in offense in the '02 season. Their main slugger, Larry Walker, was already 35 years old and his numbers dropped in a huge way for two straight years before he became a bench player in the 2004 season. We still saw players like Jeromy Burnitz put up a .283/37/110 season and Jay Payton hit .302/28/89 post-humidor. Todd Helton never reached the RBI Baseball-like numbers from before, but we can safely say he went on to have a pretty good career.

The Diamondbacks have a pair of sluggers that are likely to be just as productive as those Rockies players from the past. There was never a 49-HR season for Goldschmidt to begin with, and much of his value is tied into steals, so if anything should be a concern, it's his wheels starting to come off now that he's on the wrong side of 30. That was enough for me to bump into the latter portion of the first round in my personal rankings, but it has nothing to do with his home stadium and more to do with a category-specific concern. Jake Lamb is one homer shy of putting up consecutive 30-90 seasons. Players like Steven Souza, when he returns from the disabled list in May, A.J. Pollock and David Peralta all have clear fantasy value. Yet, their ADP saw a tangible drop shortly after the humidor was officially announced. Could fantasy owners have made a mistake by letting them pass?

 

How Low Did They Go?

Here's a quick look at overall ADP data (taken from NFBC drafts) for Arizona's main offensive players:

Player Jan 1-Feb 15 Mar 1-28
Paul Goldschmidt #3 #7
AJ Pollock #42 #47
Jake Lamb #74 #90
David Peralta #150 #165

It's not as if Goldy dropped out of the first round, but with no injuries or severe spring struggles, it's not as if there were any other reason for him to drop at all, even a couple of spots. Lamb dropped a full round lower and I was able to secure him in one auction league for the low price of $5 and for $7 in another. Peralta would seem to be affected less, since he has a career total of 44 home runs and has never hit more than 17 HR in a season, yet his ADP plunged by 15 spots in the month before Opening Day.

Steven Souza isn't listed for the obvious reason that he started the year on the DL and won't be back for another month or so, but I have the feeling fantasy owners won't scramble to pick him up once activated.

 

Your 2018 Arizona Diamondbacks

The Desert Snakes currently have five position players hitting over .300 and eight who are at .278 or higher. They've had five different players go deep in Chase Field, neither of whom are named Lamb or Goldschmidt. In fact, Goldy is off to a miserable start, with just one hit in 14 at-bats. THE HUMIDOR EFFECT IS REAL!!! Try telling that to Nick Ahmed, whose among the league leaders with seven RBI already.

Unfortunately for the team, it hasn't helped their pitching staff either. Robbie Ray, a top-50 overall pick in most leagues, served up three gopher balls in his first outing and the staff had allowed nine HR in its first five games, fourth-most in the bigs thus far. So much for those lower ratios.

While the pitching staff should be just fine, expecting much better value than previous years would be a mistake. If there is one pitcher who is undervalued, it's Patrick Corbin, who was dominant on Wednesday night with 12 K and has been a forgotten man in that rotation.

There is virtually no chance you'll convince a Goldy owner to sell him for a reasonable price simply because of a mini-slump, but Lamb is another story. His already depreciated price along with an early injury could provide the optimal time to buy low. There's a chance that the Lamb owner in your league was a bit skeptical when taking him, but it doesn't hurt to send an offer his way and find out.

The most intriguing name here is Steven Souza. If he's sitting on the waiver wire in your league, consider stashing him in an empty DL spot, if you have one. He smacked 30 homers and stole 16 bases last season with Tampa Bay, his third full Major League season. His power won't be suppressed by a moist baseball and the D-backs averaged the eighth-most stolen base attempts per game in 2017.

If you have any post-draft remorse about undervaluing Arizona batters, just to see them cross the plate at the fourth-highest rate in the league so far, it's not too late to be proactive and buy into a prolific offense.

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday

Bears Draft Luther Burden In Round 2
Buffalo Bills

Bills Move Up To 41st Pick In Trade With Bears

Patriots Add TreVeyon Henderson To The Backfield At Pick No. 38
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Acquire 37th Pick From Raiders, Draft Jonah Savaiinaea

Browns Add Quinshon Judkins To Backfield With 36th Pick
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Acquire 35th Pick From Titans, Select Nick Emmanwori

Texans Select Jayden Higgins 34th Overall
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3

Tyler Shough Could Come Off The Board Before Shedeur Sanders
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Isaiah Spiller

Raiders Waive Isaiah Spiller
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
NFL

Several Teams Trying To Trade Up Early In Round 2
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Colby Thomas

Heating Up At Triple-A
Emmanuel Rodriguez

Has Quiet Start To 2025
Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF