Determining Draft Strategy in Fantasy Baseball Rotisserie vs. Points Leagues Using "Teams in a Vacuum" Concept

What do the experts know? When it comes to rotisserie vs. points leagues, all the fantasy baseball podcasters discuss “drafting Player A in roto but Player B in points.”

Are rotisserie and points leagues really that different? Should you draft players in a different order depending on the scoring type?

To answer these questions, calculations are performed on a player basis for “players in a vacuum” analysis.

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Rotisserie vs. Points Leagues Settings for Fantasy Baseball

The standard settings in rotisserie leagues keep track of 10 categories:

• Batting -- runs, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average
• Pitching -- strikeouts, wins, saves, earned run average, (walks + hits)/number of innings pitched

Each team is awarded points depending on how their players finish in each category.  In a 12-team league, the best in each category is awarded 12 points, second place gets 11 points, etc.

The most common settings in points leagues award different points based on the category:

• Batting
  • Single = 1 point
  • Walk = 1 point
  • Double = 2 points
  • Triple = 3 points
  • Home Run = 4 points
  • Run = 1 point
  • Run batted in = 1 point
  • Stolen base = 1 point
• Pitching
  • Inning pitched = 1 point
  • Strikeout = 1 point
  • Win = 10 points
  • Save = 7 points

The categories are totaled for each team and multiplied by the corresponding category points.

Table 1 – 2023 Top-13 Drafted Players and Their Final Ranks

	Rotisserie Leagues
Average Draft Position	Name	Position Rank	Final Rank
1	Aaron Judge	OF16	42
2	Trea Turner	SS3	16
3	Jose Ramirez	3B4	28
4	Ronald Acuna Jr.	OF1	1
5	Kyle Tucker	OF4	4
6	Juan Soto	OF6	10
7	Mookie Betts	OF2	2
8	Julio Rodriguez	OF3	3
9	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B7	40
10	Yordan Alvarez	OF32	98
11	Corbin Burnes	SP8	112
12	Freddie Freeman	1B2	7
13	Gerrit Cole	SP1	72
	Points Leagues
Average Draft Position	Name	Position Rank	Final Rank
1	Aaron Judge	OF27	62
2	Trea Turner	SS3	18
3	Jose Ramirez	3B2	15
4	Ronald Acuna Jr.	OF1	1
5	Kyle Tucker	OF4	8
6	Juan Soto	OF3	6
7	Mookie Betts	OF2	4
8	Julio Rodriguez	OF5	10
9	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B8	42
10	Yordan Alvarez	OF24	57
11	Corbin Burnes	SP19	207
12	Freddie Freeman	1B2	3
13	Gerrit Cole	SP5	172

There are several observations from last year’s top players.

• Using last year’s first-round average draft picks, you had a 50% chance of drafting a player worthy of the first round
• Pitchers don’t finish near the top in either format
• Outfielders dominated last year’s top players

To compare how players finished in the two leagues, what if you calculated player totals on a league basis rather than a team basis?  For rotisserie scoring, you take the top-100 batters and the top-100 pitchers (which represents the same number as the non-bench players in a 12-team league) and award category points based on how each player finished in each category.  For points scoring, you take each player's season statistics and calculate their totals.

Table 2 – Comparison of First-Round Finishers

	Rotisserie Scoring			Points Scoring			Same First Round Players
Year	Best Player	Points		Best Player	Points
2017	Paul Goldschmidt	458		Giancarlo Stanton	1933		75%
2018	Jose Ramirez	464		Jose Ramirez	1875		100%
2019	Cody Bellinger	455		Cody Bellinger	1889		75%
2020	Fernando Tatis Jr.	466		Freddie Freeman	775		75%
2021	Jose Ramirez	459		Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	2708		75%
2022	Aaron Judge	470		Aaron Judge	2108		75%
2023	Ronald Acuna Jr.	472		Ronald Acuna Jr.	2202		75%
							79% Average

Table 2 shows there are similarities between the two scoring systems, but they are not the same. Batting average is not a consideration in points leagues. Other than home runs, multi-base hits are not considered in roto leagues. This can make a big difference in a player’s rank.

To give a contrasting example, Kyle Schwarber had an outstanding year in 2023, scoring 108 runs, 47 home runs, 104 RBI, and 126 walks, which resulted in a 12th-place finish in points leagues. Because walks are not considered in rotisserie and he had no stolen bases, Schwarber’s stellar performance only got a 64^th-place finish in roto leagues.

The last column in Table 2 summarizes the differences between the scoring systems concerning batters since they dominate the first round. If you throw out 2018 where the top-12 average draft positions finished in the top 12, roto and points leagues are 75% the same.

The website Statistica estimates that 12.5 million people play fantasy baseball. A quick calculation of the hundreds of public leagues over several fantasy baseball websites showed that leagues are split 70% roto/30% points.

The reason rotisserie is the dominant scoring system is due to the difficulty of tuning the parameters to make pitchers equal to batters in the points scoring system. Similar to defenses and kickers in fantasy football, awarding points for pitching statistics doesn’t translate as well as offensive statistics.

Table 3 – Top Pitcher Ranks

	Rotisserie Scoring
Year	Final Rank	First Starting Pitcher	Points		Best Player	Points
2017	64	Corey Kluber	371		Paul Goldschmidt	458
2018	27	Trevor Bauer	410		Jose Ramirez	464
2019	63	Justin Verlander	369		Cody Bellinger	455
2020	84	Shane Bieber	371		Fernando Tatis Jr.	466
2021	61	Max Scherzer	370		Jose Ramirez	459
2022	65	Justin Verlander	363		Aaron Judge	470
2023	72	Gerrit Cole	358		Ronald Acuna Jr.	472
Average	21st pick	Second round in 12-team league
	Points Scoring
Year	Final Rank	First Starting Pitcher	Points		Best Player	Points
2017	105	Chris Sale	1094		Giancarlo Stanton	1933
2018	99	Max Scherzer	1080		Jose Ramirez	1875
2019	87	Gerrit Cole	1178		Cody Bellinger	1889
2020	77	Shane Bieber	446		Freddie Freeman	775
2021	207	Gerrit Cole	889		Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	2708
2022	123	Gerrit Cole	901		Aaron Judge	2108
2023	115	Spencer Strider	1043		Ronald Acuna Jr.	2202
Average	116th pick	10th round in 12-team league

If Table 2 showed batters finish within the same round of each other 75% of the time, Table 3 shows the top pitchers do not match between the leagues 100% of the time. In my previous article, I stated that you should not consider drafting a starting pitcher before the third round.

In a points league, you wouldn’t dream of it. If you are drafting in a points league, grab the best nine or 10 batters before considering a pitcher.

The top drafting tip in fantasy football is know your league settings referring to standard scoring versus point-per-reception. This directive is even more important in fantasy baseball.

Rotisserie and points scoring produce different results. The rotisserie scoring system attempts to have a level playing field with an equal number of categories between batters and pitchers. The points-scoring system makes no such concession; pitchers are treated like second-class citizens. Because rotisserie scoring is dominant, do not trust the draft tool’s player rankings when in a points league draft. If pitchers pop up before the 10^th round, ignore them.

Are rotisserie and points leagues really that different? Between the two scoring systems, batters finish in the same round 75% of the time; pitchers finish rounds apart 100% of the time. Grab those batters first!

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