Starting Pitcher Prospects Emerging: Year of the Rookie Pitcher - Debuts by Andrew Abbott, Bryan Woo, AJ Smith-Shawver

Many have termed 2023 the “year of the rookie pitcher” in fantasy baseball. It is true that 32 pitchers that have debuted in 2023 have made a start in the majors this season, and that doesn’t even figure in “rookie” pitchers like Hunter Brown and Matthew Liberatore who debuted in previous seasons, bringing the total rookies that have started to roughly 50.

Only 68 pitchers that debuted in 2022 made a start last season over the entirety of the season, including those who made starts as openers. Previous full seasons have seen between 65-85 total different rookies making starts, so this year is on pace to surpass that quite notably.

With all the excitement for the big names that have been brought up among rookie pitchers, only 23 of the 44 that have made a start have produced a positive fWAR this season, so not every rookie starter has been beneficial to fantasy owners. So far his month, five more rookie pitchers made their first start of the season. Let’s take a look to see how they did and whether they’ll be arms to roster or ones that will return to Triple-A.

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Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds plucked Abbott in the second round of the 2021 draft out of the University of Virginia. Abbott was primarily a reliever in college until his draft season, making 17 of his 20 collegiate starts in that season. He finished among the college leaders in strikeouts for the Cavaliers, whiffing 162 in 106 2/3 innings.

Abbott has an elite fastball/curveball combination from the left side, with his curve easily rating as his best pitch overall, though he throws it roughly 25% of the time, featuring his 91-94 MPH fastball nearly 55% of the time and mixing in a mid-80s change and a low-80s sweeping slider.

Abbott’s bugaboo previously has been his control, but right now, his 52.9% zone rate with his pitches would rank him in the top 20 among qualified pitchers this season. The issue is that hitters are forcing him into the zone with hittable pitches, as evidenced by his nearly-47% hard-hit rate that would far and away rank the highest among qualified starters.

Allowing more than 45% of batted balls as fly balls with Great American Ballpark as a home park is not a great formula for success either. Abbott has the strikeout stuff to entice fantasy owners, but at this point, until he can avoid the hard hits, he’s a streamer play.

Osvaldo Bido, Pittsburgh Pirates

Bido notably made his major league debut as a starter for Pittsburgh this week, allowing one run over four innings. The 27-year-old has been in the Pirates system since being an “old” signee out of the Dominican at 21. Bido works primarily with a four-pitch mix, using a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a split changeup, and his best pitch, a slider that he can shape from an upper-80s sharp-breaking pitch to a lower-80s sweeper. He works around 92-96 with his fastballs and upper-80s with the split change.

Bido uses a sinker or slider on roughly 70% of his pitches, which generates plenty of ground balls, but he also struggles to work in the zone, with walk rates over 10% each of his three partial seasons in Triple-A. He did walk three in his four-inning debut.

Depending on the lineup, his groundball-inducing repertoire could make for an excellent spot start, but Bido isn’t a guy who is likely to run with a starting job all season in Pittsburgh, let alone hold one in fantasy lineups.

Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers

After two strong appearances to start his major league time, Olson faced the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday and was hit very hard. Olson was originally drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 13th round out of high school in 2018. He was the return the Tigers received in 2021 for a deadline deal that sent Daniel Norris to Milwaukee.

Olson works with a collection of plus pitches, with a fringe-plus fastball, a plus slider, and a double-plus change to go with an average curve. He’s leaned heavily on his secondary stuff in his first three appearances, using his four-seam or two-seam fastball just 46.7% of the time and going offspeed the remainder of the time.

Olson’s issue throughout his minor league career has been location, and the walk rate has been notably better in the majors than it was in Triple-A, but he’s still not hitting his spots tremendously well. The Braves exploited that to the tune of seven runs in 3 1/3 innings, but that is also one of the top offenses in the majors this year.

Detroit will likely offer the best chance for a pitcher to stick out of any team on this list, so Olson will have a longer leash than most. If expectations can be tempered to a fourth starter with volatility (in both directions), I think fantasy owners can be happy rostering Olson, but he’s likely not going to be a guy that you’re comfortable starting every time out there.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

Smith-Shawver is this season’s Braves find within their own system. After bringing up Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom last season, each of whom opened the year without a minute of upper minors time, the Braves did the same with Smith-Shawver, who they drafted in the seventh round in 2021 out of high school in Texas.

His first three major league appearances have gone well. He has allowed three earned runs over 13 1/3 innings with 11 strikeouts, four walks, and nine hits. He earned his first win last night against the Rockies. Not bad for a 20-year-old.

While others mentioned today are hitting the zone with incredible frequency, Smith-Shawver has had just 44% of his pitches find their way into the strike zone, which would rank him second-to-last among qualified starters. He’s gotten away with it by generating just a 20% hard-hit rate, but that’s with more than 50% of hits going for fly balls.

AJ is throwing roughly 90% of his pitches between his mid-90s rising fastball and his mid-80s electric hammer slider, giving many similar thoughts as Spencer Strider did last season, however, Strider has been a guy that found the zone 52%+ of the time so far in his career. Smith-Shawver should generate some electric numbers when he does locate but also keep in mind that he’s already thrown roughly 2/3 of the maximum innings in a season that he’s ever thrown, so the Braves may want to space out those bullets.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

A sixth-round pick in 2021 out of college, Woo was significantly off the prospect radar until he struck out 16 over 10 2/3 innings at the Arizona Fall League last season, making him arguably the best pitcher in the 2022 AFL. It isn’t surprising that many didn’t know about him as he had a 6.11 ERA and only pitched 28 innings in his draft season at San Luis Obispo.

Woo has been hit hard in his two starts thus far, totaling 6 2/3 innings. He’s allowed eight runs on 11 hits. The positives are that he’s walked just two and struck out 11. Woo uses a four-seam and two-seam fastball along with a slider. He has a change that he’s used roughly 2% of the time, otherwise, it’s been approximately 98% fastball or slider offerings.

The four-seam fastball for Woo has exceptional rise, which gives it plenty of swings and misses when he gets it to the top of the zone with command, but he’s missed just slightly so far, with more than 52% of his pitches in the zone, but often catching too much of the middle of the zone. He’s always been a guy with a higher-than-normal fly ball rate, and that’s continued in the majors so far, though he was able to suppress home runs due to the high action on his pitches.

Woo’s expected ERA is 3.92 rather than the 10.80 that he’s seen so far, and if he’s viewed as a potential high-3, low-4 ERA type of pitcher with strikeout upside and low walk rates, that’d be a fair value. However, like Smith-Shawver, he’s going to hit an inning limit quickly as he’s never reached 70 innings in college or pros, and he’s already over 50 innings this season, so how much he’ll throw the rest of the year remains to be seen.

Which Starting Pitchers Are Next?

While many of the top names among pitching prospects entering the 2023 season have already debuted, there are still plenty more to come!

Top prospects like Andrew Painter, Kyle Harrison, Gavin Williams, Ricky Tiedemann, Mick Abel, Quinn Priester, and Jack Leiter were in multiple preseason top 100 lists and are in the upper minors, giving them a good chance to debut this year. Others, like Ben Brown, Connor Phillips, Emmet Sheehan, Robert Gasser, Cade Povich, Clayton Beeter, Michael McGreevy, and Anthony Veneziano all have put themselves into their respective teams' near-future plans and could see a debut this year.

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