RADIO
Well, y'all. We've made it: it's time for the Daytona 500. Sure, we've already had three NASCAR Cup Series races so far—the Clash, plus both Duel races—but this is the first one that counts. (yes, I know the Duels pay points, but not to everyone!).
But while Daytona is the crown jewel of the NASCAR season, it's also the most frustrating race there is for fantasy purposes. Superspeedways really even the playing field, allowing drivers who wouldn't normally be competitive to get good finishes. And the nature of pack racing also leads to some massive pile-ups, costing good drivers chances at good finishes. Because of that, I usually try to play it safe at this track, making more lineups than usual and entering them into lower-cost contests. I just want to break even at Daytona and live to win another day. I also tend to shy away from drivers who start in the top 20 unless they're clear value plays because the crashes here mean a lot of drivers who start near the front will likely finish near the bottom, and the negative place differential from that really hurts. Anyway, there's my long preamble. Let's get to the NASCAR picks.
Below is my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 2/19/23 at 2:30 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Denny Hamlin
Starts 18th - DK: $10,300, FD: $12,500
Here I go: breaking that "don't play drivers starting in the top 20" rule right off the bat. But Hamlin, who starts 18th on Sunday, is right there on that cusp, and if there's a driver I'll break that arbitrary rule for, it's the driver of the 11 car.
Why? Because this is Daytona, and Hamlin knows a little something about winning at Daytona, as he's done it three times in the Cup Series. And all three of those wins came in the 500.
Obviously, it's tough to predict who'll actually finish this race, and Hamlin did have a pair of DNFs at Daytona last season. But before 2022, he'd been running at the finish in the vast majority of his Daytona starts. In his first 32 Daytona races, he had just three DNFs. He didn't always have great finishes, but just being around at the end of these races is enough to get a good fantasy result.
Kyle Busch
Starts 36th - DK: $9,600, FD: $11,000
This is probably the chalk play of the race. If you want to fade Kyle Busch because of that in GPP lineups, that's totally fine. But sometimes, you just have to embrace the chalk, especially in head-to-head matchups.
This will be Busch's first regular season race for Richard Childress Racing. While it seems like moving from JGR to RCR is a downgrade, that doesn't really matter at a track like Daytona, where anything can happen.
Busch has a really up-and-down track record at Daytona, with a lot of crashes on his resume. But he was top 10 in both of his races here last year, and...well, he starts 36th in a race where place differential is basically the main thing you should be looking for.
Ross Chastain
Starts 23rd - DK: $9,200, FD: $9,200
One thing I've noticed about superspeedway races: people really tend to overlook drivers starting in their mid-20s. Part of that is that those drivers offer less place differential upside than drivers who start in the low 20s or 30s, but I think it leaves a little bit of a gap where some good drivers will be under-rostered in DFS contests.
Chastain has had really bad luck at Daytona lately, crashing out in three consecutive starts here. But his results at the other superspeedways last year are a lot more encouraging: a win and a fourth at Talladega, and a pair of second-place finishes at Atlanta.
If Chastain can keep from crashing, then he'll be there at the end fighting for the win.
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Jimmie Johnson
Starts 39th - DK: $7,700, FD: $5,500
Look: Jimmie Johnson hasn't run a Cup Series race in a while, and he's never run one in this new-generation car. I get that. But he's also seven-time Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson and he starts 39th at a superspeedway. There's such a huge place differential upside here for this 84-car. And FanDuel has him priced cheaper than Noah Gragson, Ty Gibbs, and A.J. Allmendinger. Even on DraftKings, he feels like a steal. On FanDuel? He's a lock, though I suppose he'll likely wind up being really chalky on that platform.
Johnson's a three-time winner at Daytona, though he hasn't won here since 2013 when he swept the races. In 14 starts since then, he has had six DNFs and four top fives. The fact that he's been out of the series for a couple of years now leads to a little more uncertainty around his outlook here, but this is Jimmie Johnson that we're talking about: he'll figure things out.
Chase Briscoe
Starts 30th - DK: $7,400, FD: $6,200
Our search for place differential plays continues with Chase Briscoe, who really came on strong at the end of last year. Over the final seven races of the season, Briscoe had six top 10s, including three top fives. On the season as a whole, he had six top fives and 10 top 10s. 2023 has a chance to be a huge year for Briscoe.
His track record at Daytona has been spotty, but he's also only run four Cup Series races here, so we're working off a small sample. He has just one lead lap finish here, but that finish was a third-place run in last year's 500.
Ty Gibbs
Starts 33rd - DK: $5,800, FD: $5,800
I get that he's a rookie, but the pricing on Ty Gibbs this week is absurd. He costs less than Austin Hill, who didn't make the race, would have cost on DraftKings. This is a JGR car! FanDuel did a little better job, but even there, he feels pretty massively underpriced. But hey—that's fine with me. It should help us make some money, right?
Gibbs has made two Cup Series starts on superspeedways, finishing 13th at Daytona last fall and then 37th at Talladega. In Xfinity, he was 11th and seventh in two starts here last season.
The track record itself is decent, but the real reasons to play him are obviously the price and the starting spot. It also helps that he'll have three JGR teammates plus three 23XI cars to draft with.
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