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Ellis Johnson breaks down why Houston Texans RB David Johnson could be primed for a bounce-back season and be a sleeper in fantasy football for 2020.
David Johnson might be one of the most head-scratching backs for the 2020 season. I mean, what happened to him? According to FantasyPros, the back had the first overall average draft position (ADP) in 2017. His ADP has currently plummeted to 44th as the 21st RB off the board for 2020. Ironically, this is one spot behind his fellow 28-year-old league mate (and 2017’s 1.02 ADP) Le’Veon Bell. These are some big fantasy names that have led many to championships while consequently burning others. So once again, what happened to David Johnson?
The Cardinals All-Pro was touted as one of the most versatile backs in the NFL after his monstrous 2016 campaign. In that season, he collected 120 targets, over 2,000 all-purpose yards, and 20 touchdowns, ultimately being ranked as the 12th best player in football per the NFL 100. Johnson was a beast; however, a lot has changed since then. Since that magical season, he has dislocated his wrist, been supplanted by career backup Kenyan Drake, and changed teams, overall making him a potential steal in your draft. In this article, I aim to clear up some of the muddy waters around David Johnson, ultimately decreasing the eye roll factor of drafting him in the 4th round.
Many people like to hang their hat on the infamous Tampa Bay run in week 10 last season which displays (in my opinion) the absolute rock bottom of Johnson’s career. In that play, not only does Johnson make a terrible read, but he looks SLOW. As cringe-worthy as that play is, it would be a disservice to completely disregard the start of his season and look over the potential upside he offers fantasy owners in 2020.
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A Tale of Two Seasons
From weeks 1-6 (before his injury) with the Cardinals last season, Johnson was the RB6 in fantasy football (Half PPR). During this six-game span, he scored five touchdowns and averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game (also sixth). His 315 receiving yards from weeks one to six were more than Christian McCaffery in that span (305 yds). Unfortunately, his between the tackles game was not as strong, as he was averaging 3.9 yards per carry (YPC) and 50 rushing yards per game. But for fantasy purposes, the guy was balling out.
That’s when his injury-hit. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, what seemed to be a minor Grade One ankle sprain was re-aggravated on his first touch of week seven. This led to Johnson missing the next two games and ultimately initiating his fantasy downfall. From week seven on, he technically played in six games, which includes a game where he failed to record a touch. During this span, he plummeted to one yard per carry and only had more than four carries once.
As of October 28th, 2019, Johnson was officially proclaimed dead for fantasy purposes when the team traded for Kenyan Drake. A few weeks after, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury came out to say they were using the “hot-hand” approach. This approach led to the offense riding Kenyan Drake’s scorching resurgence, where he averaged over 16.5 fantasy points per game.
Let’s not forget about what started this colossal collapse, the injury. What seemed to be a minor Grade One ankle sprain obviously hindered David Johnson over the rest of the season. This injury led him to miss two games immediately; however, he sat out weeks 12 and 17 presumably due to reaggravation. This is evidence that the decrease in production may have not been solely on Johnson and partly due to playing through an injury. After all, he dropped from 3.9 YPC to a meager one YPC and didn’t have a game over five carries.
Getting injured again is definitely a concern for the veteran back in 2020. However, I would like to propose the idea that the last time we saw David Johnson fully healthy was week six of last year when he posted 102 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against the Falcons. And guess what, David Johnson is healthy heading into 2020.
On to the Texans
Referred to as “the worst trade in NFL history," Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien decided to replace WR DeAndre Hopkins with David Johnson and a second-round draft pick. For fantasy purposes, this opens the door for Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake and David Johnson to both have lead back roles on good offenses. Each of these teams is known for their potent offense and lack of defense, making them both fantasy gold-mines. However, for how good the Texans have been offensively, their running backs have been wildly mediocre. Over the last three seasons, the Texans’ backs (Lamar Miller 2017-18 and Carlos Hyde 2019) have fantasy finishes of 16th, 22nd, and 27th respectively. Meanwhile, the offense as a whole finished top-ten in rushing yards per game over the last two years. So what is limiting the fantasy production of the running backs?
Well, it's QB Deshaun Watson. Over the last two years, he has finished in the top-four in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns at the quarterback position. These plays remove potential opportunities for the running back to find pay dirt and ultimately capitalize on the team's situation. To add insult to injury, not only does Watson limit RB upside, but the Texans are notorious for their lack of targets to the running back position. Over the last three years, the Texans have finished as the 28th, 32nd, and 28th team in targets to the position respectively. Somehow, those are the finishes of a team that is currently rostering two of the best pass-catching backs in the league, David and Duke Johnson Jr.
Last year, it was certainly strange to see the team that finished 28th in targets to the running back trade for Duke Johnson Jr. However, there is more to this than what meets the eye. Duke Johnson finished with 62 of the team’s 79 targets (78%). Before Johnson Jr., Houston had failed to give a running back more than 45 targets (Lamar Miller 2017) in the previous three seasons. Obviously bringing in Johnson Jr. created a culture change for the offense. Once head coach Bill O’Brien had a pass-catching weapon, he clearly made a point to try and scheme for his involvement.
As for the ground game, Duke Johnson Jr. does not post much of a threat. Last season, Johnson Jr. posted his second-highest career carries since his rookie season at 83. This was enough for him to finish 49th in attempts at the position, behind definitive Cowboys backup Tony Pollard. Before the signing of Carlos Hyde last year, Duke Johnson Jr. truthers were thinking he was finally in a workhorse position. The Texans quickly shut this opportunity out by signing Carlos Hyde and proceeding to give him the 11th most carries in the league. The Texans have made it clear that they don’t see Duke Johnson Jr. as a volume rusher, leaving the role open for David Johnson.
Based on how the offense adjusted to bringing in a receiving weapon out of the backfield last year and the massive amount of vacated targets from Hopkins leaving, I believe there is a very real opportunity for there to be enough targets for both Johnson and Johnson Jr. These targets, plus the stranglehold David Johnson has on the ground game, means Houston has a workhorse back.
2020 Outlook
Going into 2020, Johnson’s role with the Texans can only truly be speculated. Nevertheless, I believe there is a reason to be optimistic about a fantasy revival. Last season, 29-year-old journeyman Carlos Hyde put up the 12th most rushing yards in the league (1,070) and finished 11th in rushing attempts while posting his second-best career yards per carry (4.4). For the 2020 season, The Score grades the Texans to have the 17th best offensive line in the league, which is a massive upgrade from the 25th ranked Cardinals.
If Hyde can post a 1,000 yards on the ground, there is no reason an elite talent like David Johnson can’t do the same. The previously mentioned lack of rushing touchdowns may limit the ceiling, but the receptions and Johnson’s guaranteed groundwork should combine to create the definition of a solid RB2. On Twitter (@YoitsEllis_FF), I posted a few polls of backs that are going around David Johnson in Half PPR redraft leagues. Here are the results:
Obviously, David Johnson isn’t nearly the shiny pick he used to be and will most likely slide in drafts. Based on the statistics above, I would argue that this ADP slide is unnecessary. Due to the offense's situation, I would take Johnson over David Montgomery and Le’Veon Bell, who are guaranteed usage on lesser teams. I would also take Johnson over the workload questions of Melvin Gordon. As for James Conner and Jonathan Taylor, I would only take them over Johnson if I selected a running back with each of my first two picks (a Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs stack for example).
In this situation, I would shoot for the upside and take Conner or Taylor as my RB3. In any other situation, I would gladly take the guaranteed work and stability of Johnson for my RB2 and ideally behind high upside backs such as Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Miles+Sanders" data-id="20933">Miles Sanders. As for dynasty, if you are a win-now team that could use some RB depth, buying Johnson at his cheap price is well worth your time and maybe the perfect depth piece for a title run.
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