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Darren Waller or Dallas Goedert - who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football drafts? Brandon analyzes NFL players with similar values and tells you who to pick.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Darren Waller vs. Dallas Goedert for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is the Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of TEs Darren Waller and Dallas Goedert and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Darren Waller, New York Giants
TE6 - ADP: 69th Overall
After being the TE2 in fantasy PPG in 2020 (17.4), Darren Waller has been going the wrong way from a performance perspective for the last two years. Mired with many injuries, he has played in just 20 games since 2020. From the surface level, it's hard to look at his statistics from last year and come away impressed. The Raiders' offense was anything if not predictable in 2022. It affected their offense as a whole as they ranked in the bottom third in plays ran on the season (1,014).
But one thing that remained constant was Darren Waller's ability to be a mismatch down the field. He once again led the position in deep targets (13) and was top five in air yards share (19.4%). But outside of that, you could say that Waller was just another tight end in fantasy when it came to production in 2022.
His fantasy PPG (9.4) placed him at TE10 on the season in a year where many of the tight ends seemed to be shuffled in and out of starting lineups for fantasy managers.
Going into 2023, a much-needed change of scenery was given to Waller as he was traded to the New York Giants to become their new starting tight end. This move could prove to be advantageous not only for the Giants but also for fantasy managers as Waller provides Daniel Jones with a field-stretching option that has been lacking. Couple this with the Giants' affinity for slot receiver types and Waller stands out like a sore thumb.
If Daniel Jones can progress as a passer in Year 2 under Brian Daboll, Waller should become the primary option instantly. With Waller's ability to open up the passing game downfield, look for Daniel Jones' yards per target to potentially increase over 7.0 for the first time in his career. Add in his ability to be a threat in the red zone and we could see Waller thrive and rise back to prominence in 2023.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
TE7 - ADP: 68th Overall
Dallas Goedert has been as consistent as they come at the tight end position over the last three seasons. He has improved his finish in fantasy PPG each year, finally cracking the top five in 2023 (11.8 FPPG). It makes you wonder just how good his 2022 could have been if he played a full 17 games. Missing five games at the end of the season was a tough blow for fantasy managers during the stretch run and playoffs. But in the games played, he was an absolute weapon at the position.
Goedert's 58.5 receiving yards per game ranked second at TE behind only Travis Kelce. He was also among the league leaders at the position in target % (18.2), team receiving yards % (22.7), and yards per target (10.32). As the Eagles' offense took a big step forward in 2022, Goedert was a key contributor to a passing attack that could progress even further in 2023.
Now, as we look ahead to the 2023 season, projecting Goedert's role in the offense is pretty simple. He is the clear-cut third option in a passing offense that ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of attempts (536). Goedert was third in the first-read percentage of passing plays (21.9%) behind both A.J. Brown (30.2%) and DeVonta Smith (29%).
With the addition of D'Andre Swift to the Eagles' offense, many are wondering how he will factor into the passing offense. But with Jalen Hurts, you have a quarterback that rarely checks the ball down (5.7% in 2022). If the Eagles decide to design more play concepts specific to Swift's ability, it could eat into Goedert's target share. But I expect the impact to be minimal.
The key to Goedert's potential in 2023 will be tied to how much the Eagles' passing attack progresses. Can Jalen Hurts take another step forward? Or have we seen the peak of what can be expected from this offense? If we see another level to the Eagles' passing game come forward this season, there is a case to be made that Goedert will remain in the top five in fantasy PPG. This means he will be outperforming his current ADP.
Fantasy Football Verdict
This is as close a call that you could have in drafts as they come. Not only are the two players going side by side according to the current ADP, but the two also represent a tier break at the position. Once these two are off the board, you are typically seeing fantasy managers wait a couple of rounds before diving back into the position. So, who will be the right call as you build your roster through the draft?
On one hand, you have the oft-injured Darren Waller in his first year with a new team. On the other hand, you have the steady and consistent Dallas Goedert. The case could be made that you can't go wrong with either, but I see one with a higher upside than the other. For me, that would be Darren Waller. When it comes down to it, I see Waller as the player that yields a higher percentage of opportunities for fantasy managers. And at the end of the day, more opportunities mean more scoring potential for drafters.
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