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We continue our preseason fantasy football sleeper series with a look at Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.
While the first few rounds of every draft are essentially a wash-rinse-repeat of the consensus top-36, we can always count on those middle and late rounds to cement our confidence in this year's sleepers. The definition of the fantasy football sleeper has changed over the years, with the emergence of the industry itself on social media. The common sleeper today isn't a player that is being 'slept on' by the community. They're more like a player in a great spot to outperform his average draft position based on a plethora of factors.
These factors can include poor late-season slumps the year prior (ala Kareem Hunt) or a sudden talent implosion of the team around him. Both circumstances have followed Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott throughout the summer.
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2018 Sleeper - Dak Prescott
The Slump
There may not have been a more highly criticized QB than Prescott through the latter half of 2017. Starting running back Ezekiel Elliott was questionably suspended, forcing Dallas and their second-year signal caller into uncharted territory. Prescott would be without Elliott for the next six games, and my what a string of weeks was it.
Prescott was the QB6 in standard scoring through the first eight weeks of 2017 with Elliott in the lineup. He averaged a stellar 25 fantasy points per contest and was on pace to obliterate his 29 total touchdowns he posted his rookie year. Over those next six weeks, Prescott would fail to average at least 16 fantasy points per game. He would also deliver three consecutive (and four total) performances without throwing a touchdown. When it was all said and done, the former fourth-round draft pick would post a 5:7 TD to INT ratio with Elliott out of the lineup.
Upon Elliott returning, Dallas accelerated into panic mode, needing to win their final two games to have a shot at a playoff berth. They ultimately failed, and the season was lost.
The most important question of all
That question is referencing the often asked "who is he going to throw to" narrative that's been circulating for months. Dallas has parted ways with longtime WR1 Dez Bryant, and they have also lost future Hall of Fame tight end Jason Witten to retirement. Nevertheless, the void will be filled.
Dallas shook up their shorthanded group of pass catchers by signing former Jacksonville Jaguar Allen Hurns and investing third-round draft equity into Michael Gallup. While the TE1 position is still up for grabs, we know Prescott will have at least one established target to throw to, as well as a talented rookie with unlimited potential.
Finally, look for Elliott to expand on his role in the passing game even more than he did last season. Despite a reputation as an inferior passing down RB, Elliott saw his target volume increase from 2.6 per game in 2016 to 3.8 in 2017.
The QB position's best bargain
As the 2018 season draws closer and closer, Prescott's average draft position has reached an impasse. His brutal slump in the heart of fantasy playoff season has turned many players off him in drafts, causing his ADP to fall as low as QB17 per FantasyPros. That's awfully low for a QB that's posted the eighth-most fantasy points at his position since the start of his rookie season. He makes for a fantastic best ball target, as well as a perfect selection for those that elect to sit on the position until the final five rounds of the draft.
While Prescott is not a lock for elite passing production (he ranks outside the top 10 in passing yards and passing touchdowns since he was drafted), it is his elite capability as a rusher that make him a QB1 going into his third season. Since his professional debut, Prescott ranks sixth in rushing attempts and rushing yards, and no QB has scored more touchdowns on the ground.
Prescott's career fantasy points per game average of 17.1 ranks higher than Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz; all are QBs with higher ADPs than Prescott.
So long as Elliott is in the lineup, Prescott can be fired up weekly as a borderline matchup-proof QB1. The Dak Attack is back, Jack!
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