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Welcome back to another UFC breakdown and boy am I excited for this one. TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz is set up on paper to be one of the fights of the year, and what a great story it would be if Cruz was able to overcome years of injury to regain his title.
As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets
TJ Dillashaw (10.1k)
I think the ownership percentages will be split between TJ Dillashaw and Dominick Cruz this week, and it's even a possibility that Cruz takes the majority, but I think Dillashaw is the much stronger play and a lock for me in all formats.
There are plenty of questions surrounding this fight that cannot be immediately answered - how is Cruz' health? Is he still able to move and flow and the highest of levels?
Even if Cruz is at his best, I give Dillashaw the advantage on the feet. Dillashaw lands at a much higher rate than Cruz, and while the former champ uses defensive movements well, Dillashaw simply has a more efficient and higher-output offense.
For the price, I strongly recommend targeting Dillashaw in cash games and GPPs.
Elvis Mutapcic (9.4k)
Even though he's fighting on short-notice, making his UFC debut and stepping up a weight class, I like Elvis Mutapcic this week. DraftKings priced him at 9.4k before the odds came out, and he's currently sitting as a -165 favorite in Vegas, meaning his true value sits somewhere around 10.3k.
His opponent, Francimar Barroso, just isn't that great of a fighter. Barroso is big and strong but he's not very athletic or technical, and his best chance to win is to make this a slow, boring, grinding fight. It's possible, but I give Mutapcic the advantages on the feet as a whole, and I think he's the more well-rounded fighter.
This mostly comes down to a price play, because at 9.4k, he's very difficult to avoid. I wouldn't call him a lock to win or to finish, he's the second guy I'm locking into my cash games this weekend.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets
Travis Browne (10.2k)
Another fight that might yield the higher ownership to the underdog, Travis Browne looks to rebound from his KO loss against Andrei Arlovski with a strong performance against Matt Mitrione.
Browne is the favorite, but you'll hear lots of people on Mitrione his week, and I think it's fair, this isn't a pick I'm super confident in. But as I always say, Browne has a ton of upside and that's what I'm looking for in tournaments.
If Browne wins, it will probably be from a quick knockout or submission, and that should yield a ton of points. I'm confident that at his best, he's a better fighter than Mitrione, and the biggest question is whether he'll fight at his best. I'm willing to take a chance on him.
Rob Font (10.6k)
Even though he's a 135er, Rob Font is a heavy-handed fighter and Vegas gave him some love in the props this week. He's currently +115 to finish the fight, which isn't off-the-charts good, but it's a very solid line for a close fight in a lower weight class.
He's fighting Joey Gomez who's coming in on short notice, and Gomez is a guy who wants to stand and bang. Gomez is good, but I think Font is better and he should be the better athlete. It wouldn't shock me to see Font try and take the fight to the ground, but he's coming off a quick KO in his UFC debut and I expect him to be confident on the feet as well.
Again, I love upside for tournaments and Font has it, and I'll have plenty of exposure to him.
MMA DFS for DrafKings – Fighters to Avoid
Ross Pearson (10.3k)
I wasn't really sure where to plant my "avoid" flag this week, but I decided on Ross Pearson against Francisco Trinaldo.
It's not that I don't think Pearson can get the job done, he's looked pretty solid as of late, but I'm concerned about his upside. For one, Trinaldo is usually a fighter who grinds on opponents and can make the fight as a whole low-scoring, even if he's losing.
Pearson will have to keep the fight on the feet and out-box Trinaldo, but I really don't see him being able to finish the fight. For 10.3k, there are simply better options to choose from, both above and below Pearson.
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