Last week turned out well and we're back in action with a HUGE event from Australia that features two dominant champions. If you're playing DraftKings, make sure to target fighters who can earn a finish because there are A LOT of them.
As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets
1. Ronda Rousey (11.4k)
Whenever Ronda Rousey is on a card, it attracts big attention from the general public and brings a lot more action to DraftKings. Still, some people won't play Rousey because they think she is too expensive, but I think that's a mistake.
She's as close to a lock as there is in DFS and has the highest floor on this card, and I'm going to start my cash lineups with her. Holly Holm is a fine fighter in her own right, but she's no match for Rousey, who is better than Holm at every aspect of MMA.
Holm was and is a good boxer, but she fights a point-fighting style, which doesn't translate well to MMA. Rousey should leave this fight with another championship belt around her waist.
2. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (11.3)
If you're not targeting Rousey, the next clear option is Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who's taking on Valerie Letourneau in the 115 lb. title. Similarly to Rousey vs. Holm, Letourneau is no match for Jedrzejczyk, and shockingly enough, both Letourneau and Rousey carry a Vegas line of -2000 to win.
Even if Jedrzejczyk isn't a clear lock to finish the fight, she has an extremely high floor and should rack up well over 100 significant strikes in a decision. If you can fit both Rousey and Jedrzejczyk in the same lineup for cash games, I don't mind it at all, but I think you HAVE to be targeting one of the two this weekend.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets
1. Mark Hunt (10.5k)
I'm not sure if Mark Hunt will be a high-owned play this weekend, but I think he's in a great spot to earn a finish and has one of the highest upsides on this card. His opponent, Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, is coming off a KO win which might sway some his way, but I'm all over Hunt in this fight.
Hunt has knockout power in his hands and Vegas tagged him with a wins inside distance prop of -222, which is an elite number for his moderate price.
Bigfoot Silva still can hurt people if they stand in front of him, but he's a completely different fighter off TRT, and he's clearly at the end of his career. I'm expecting Hunt to get his hands on Silva early and most likely put him away.
2. Daniel Kelly (9k)
This is definitely a GPP only play and it's not one I'm super confident, but Daniel Kelly is in a fight with Steve Montgomery that Vegas labeled -425 to end in a finish. Kelly is the underdog but he's a strong grappler, and if he can get Montgomery to the ground, I think a submission is very possible.
Montgomery is coming off a knockout loss, but he's a very good striker and uses his tall frame well, and he's also moving up from 170 to 185 for this fight. I'm not sure if that will help or hinder him, but Kelly should be able to get on the inside and make it tough for Montgomery.
MMA DFS for DrafKings – Fighters to Avoid
1. Jake Matthews (11k)
This week, my high-priced fade is Jake Matthews, who's 11k on DraftKings. He's right in between the Rousey/Jedrzejczyk combo and the Gian Villante, and three of those fighters have a lot more upside.
If I'm spending up this week, I'm taking a champion or Villante and I'm not looking back. Matthews is a heavy favorite at -1000, and that makes him a good bet to win, but he'll most likely be using his wrestling to get that done, where as the other three will strike.
In a card with so much finishing power that it might take five knockouts to win a GPP, I'm going to heavily target the fighters I think earn a quick finish, and Matthews isn't one of them.
Hope you enjoy! Follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley and @DailyFanMMA
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