Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

July 29, 2020

Spencer Aguiar breaks down the DraftKings slate, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is incredible how razor-thin the margins can be on the PGA Tour. Once labeled as the top-ranked amateur in the world in 2008, the road has not always been smooth sailing for Michael Thompson. After coming second at the 2012 U.S. Open and winning the 2013 Honda Classic, the now 35-year-old has struggled to find much success on tour for over seven years, which includes missing half of his 12 starts in 2020.

However, a clutch performance can change fortunes in a matter of seconds, and Thompson's resounding victory in Minnesota will provide job security for the next two seasons. The two-year exemption that the triumph grants is life-changing, but the perks won't stop there. With the win, the 99th-ranked player has qualified for the three remaining majors this season, as well as this week's WGC Championship. After the event, Thompson's emotions were raw and pure, and it should partially explain what this means for his career going forward. We become so accustomed to the best players in the world winning that we sometimes fail to recognize what this can mean to someone fighting for their job, and it is was a refreshing sight to behold.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Southwind

7,244 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

There are a few course history metrics that we need to discuss before getting started into our research. It is important to remember that TPC Southwind has spent most of its time on the PGA Tour as a lower-tiered venue - only making the jump up to the WGC last season. I still believe it is valuable to look at results from all years, but 2019 will be the best corollary you will find because of the quality of the field and the change from Bent to Bermuda grass.

In general, the venue is much larger than it may appear on paper. The par-fours are lengthy and feature seven that stretch over 450 yards and the 76 bunkers and 11 water hazards add to the potential hiccups along the way. Unlike some weeks where the water is just there for show, TPC Southwind punishes errant shots. More balls find the lake here than any other course on tour, and despite some relatively decent scores over the years, the venue consistently plays as one of the 15 toughest on tour.

Seven of the last eight winners have led the field in strokes gained tee to green for the week, so we will be attempting to pinpoint players who excel in that area. Add in strokes gained approach, ball striking, proximity from 150-200 yards, opportunities gained and par-four scoring, and I believe we have a pretty good blueprint for how to attack the event.

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Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau at 12/1 and Patrick Cantlay at 18/1. Your defending champion, Brooks Koepka, enters the week at 33/1.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green 25%
• Proximity 150-200 Yards 15%
• Ball Striking 15%
• Par-Four Average 15%
• Strokes Gained Approach 10%
• Total Driving 10%
• GIR 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Jon Rahm ($11,400)

I know Jon Rahm is the new number one player in the world, but it is still difficult to justify him as the best golfer. DraftKings has taken the stance that the Spaniard is deserving of his ranking by making him the most expensive player on the board at $11,400, but is the price worth the risk? In a nutshell, my answer is yes. Rahm brings a level of form, course history and statistical prowess to the event that very few can match, and his overall quality of skills should make him a threat to take home the title. We could get nitpicky and say he should be the second or third choice, but it's not worth discussing.

Rory McIlroy ($11,200)

Rory McIlroy has been a bit of an enigma since the restart. No finishes inside the top-10 have been mixed in with three of his four starts producing a result outside the top-30, which has left the Irishman perplexed and without his number-one ranking. I keep waiting for McIlroy to turn things back around here shortly and will be overweight once again, but things need to begin clicking here quickly for the 31-year-old.

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)

The poor results for Bryson DeChambeau at TPC Southwind should be taken with a grain of salt for a few reasons. For starters, his game doesn't quite resemble what it did last season during his 48th place finish at the venue, and perhaps above all else, the course is now vastly different from his failed ventures here in 2015 and 2017. I'd be shocked if we don't see the American post his best finish here of his career, although that isn't saying much when you consider that he only needs to beat 33 players this weekend to surpass his career-high result. There is some contrarian appeal in GPP events because of DeChambeau's immense upside, but I'll be rather evenly weighted with my exposure compared to his expected ownership.

Justin Thomas ($10,700)

The cat is out of the bag when it comes to Justin Thomas and his success during no-cut events. Thomas' immaculate birdie making skills shouldn't be ignored since he is guaranteed four days worth of golf, and his current form is encouraging after posting four top-18 finishes in his previous five events. Thomas is going to be one of the most popular players on the slate, but it is easy to understand why.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,100)

It feels likely that Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau will end up being the two forgotten about commodities in this range. Cantlay's Sunday implosion during the Memorial hurt a lot of DFS owners, and his perceived win equity tends to be lower than most of his counterparts in this territory. For me, Cantlay is someone worth considering because of his overall consistency, and it doesn't hurt that he seems to be properly priced at his $10,100 total.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Webb Simpson ($9,900)

I like this new erratic version of Webb Simpson from a game-theory standpoint. It seems as if Simpson is either posting a top-10 result or missing the cut during every start in 2020, and there should be ways we can take advantage of this moving forward. Unfortunately, with most gamers excited to roster the American at TPC Southwind, this might be a week where he is better served as an outright wager than a DFS play.

Xander Schauffele ($9,800)

It doesn't take much for me to buy into the Xander Schauffele hype for a tournament. His recent form of three consecutive top-20 results will look good on paper, but it is worth noting that most of those finishes have resulted in mad dashes up the leaderboard on the weekend. There's a reason why Schauffele has done so well in no-cut events in the past, and the hope is that he frees himself up mentally again on Thursday and Friday.

Daniel Berger ($9,600)

Back-to-back wins at TPC Southwind in 2016 and 2017 will have the majority of DFS players clamoring at the idea of rostering Daniel Berger during the WGC, but I'm going to be running the other way. With the tournament becoming a World Golf Championship, the course was redone last season, meaning that Berger has never played on this newer version. That doesn't mean he can't find success here because of changes to the greens, etc. However, what it does suggest is that all of his prior success is being baked into his price tag. Add to that the fact that Berger won his titles against inferior opponents, and I have a challenging time buying into the narrative that $9,600 is a proper going rate.

Viktor Hovland ($9,400)

Two things have been a pre-requisite at each version of TPC Southwind - tee to green prowess and mid-to-long iron proximity. Viktor Hovland brings the best of both worlds with him to the course in 2020 and is ranked first in proximity between 150-200 yards, as well as first in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds.

Dustin Johnson($9,300), Brooks Koepka ($9,200)

I'll lump the 'Bash Brothers' together for this breakdown since they fit under the same criteria. Each enters the week with injury concerns that need to be taken seriously, however, the chance for withdrawal does feel significantly decreased with the PGA Championship on tap in a week. I'm not in love with either from a statistical standpoint, but it would be naive to say that they can't turn the switch back on in a flash. There's some GPP appeal that needs to be taken into account, although I'd be cautious with how much exposure I push their way.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,900)

After burning the industry at the Memorial, Hideki Matsuyama gets a fantastic bounce-back opportunity at this week's WGC. I realize this narrative around Matsuyama not being able to win has become a significant issue in most people's minds, but for as much as we love to talk about Justin Thomas or Xander Schauffele finding success at no-cut events, why do we fail to mention the Japanese sensation? The five-time PGA Tour winner has won two of his titles at WGCs and has a victory at the Hero World Challenge that doesn't get accredited to him as an official victory. Half of his PGA wins have come without a cut, and Matsuyama will get a chance to make up for his past failures.

Abraham Ancer ($8,400)

Abraham Ancer has taken significant steps this year with his game. The Presidents Cup has given him an added level of confidence that has resulted in two second-place showings in his last nine tournaments, and the maiden victory looks like it could be just around the corner. Ancer's ball striking and long irons could make that breakthrough a possibility in Memphis, and I will be taking advantage of his favorable 21st place pricing on DraftKings.

Sergio Garcia ($8,000)

It becomes a broken record at a certain point when discussing players in this fashion, but Sergio Garcia has been better than his results have indicated. Garcia has gained 27.8 strokes tee to green in his last three events but only has one top-30 finish to show for it. I'd anticipate we see him keep his momentum rolling in Memphis and believe $8,000 is a very respectable total for how his game is producing.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Paul Casey ($7,800)

It hasn't been an ideal recent stretch for Paul Casey, who has missed his past two cuts on tour. There are reasons to be concerned, but I am willing to place last week's debacle on his paltry 6.1 shots lost with his putter. Casey has been his typical ball-striking self, and I am eager to take the rebate offered from DFS sites.

Sungjae Im ($7,500)

Will the one-week break help Sungjae Im? Only time will tell, but the move back to Bermuda greens should boost Im as he attempts to relocate his game. Unlike Casey, where most of his suffering has been done on the greens, the 22-year-old has been faulty in all aspects, failing to gain strokes with his iron in his past five events. Im's ownership percentage will dictate if I am prepared to take the risk, but some indicators are pointing to him providing a respectable result at a discounted price.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,400)

You aren't going to find many players on tour with better approach play than Joaquin Niemann. Unfortunately, his Achilles heel continues to be his putter, which has lost over five strokes in two of his past three contests. I do worry slightly that Niemann's total driving is not where it needs to be to compete at a quality test like TPC Southwind, but if his drives are finding the fairway, watch out for his irons.

Corey Conners ($7,300)

Corey Conners immediately becomes one of the first names that comes to mind whenever the words total driving, ball-striking, and GIR are used to describe a course. The Canadian is ranked inside the top-10 compared to the field in all of those categories and ranks inside the top-15 in approach play and strokes gained tee to green.

Scottie Scheffler ($7,300)

Scottie Scheffler showed his first signs of life during the restart at the Memorial, finishing inside the top-25. Scheffler's potential volatility will be on display again in Memphis, but his birdie-making acumen mixed with his stellar ball-striking numbers should make him a possible pivot option in the low $7,000 range.

Bubba Watson ($7,100)

It has felt like for the past few weeks that Bubba Watson is on the edge of finding something with his game, but poor putting round after poor putting round has platooned his production into four missed cuts and no top-30 finishes over his last six tries. The same risk remains on the table at TPC Southwind, but a ninth-place result in 2019 might be enough to turn Watson around on the greens at a venue where he did gain 1.5 strokes with his flat stick last year.

Kevin Streelman ($6,900)

Kevin Streelman should check a lot of the boxes if you are looking for a cheap cash-game play. Ranked inside the top-35 compared to the field in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained approach, par-four average, total driving, GIR, ball striking and overall birdie percentage, the American brings a unique blend of consistency that might go overlooked because of his lack of firepower.

Chez Reavie ($6,700)

Chez Reavie's four top-27s at TPC Southwind since 2015 will get overblown throughout the industry, but while only 2019 (T27) should be viewed as a corollary for what to expect this season, Reavie's price tag is just too low at $6,700. The 42nd-ranked player in the world is a quality player tee to green, and his cash-game appeal is there for anyone looking to grab a bargain bin price that might return a top-30 result.

Shane Lowry ($6,600)

Shane Lowry hasn't given many reasons to be encouraged about his prospects following three missed cuts and no top-35 results since the restart, but the Irishman remains a GPP stalwart that can strike on a dime. His victory at the Open Championship last season indicates that to be true, making his $6,600 outlook short when we consider his upside.

Cameron Champ ($6,200)

If gaining strokes tee to green will be necessary for Memphis, why not look for the guy who hits the ball further than anyone not named Bryson DeChambeau. As is the case with anyone priced in this area, Champ has serious concerns, especially when it comes to iron play, but this sort of firepower isn't easy to find priced at $6,200.

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