RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Webb Simpson won his second PGA Tour title in his last four starts, holding off what felt like the entire tournament at one point on Sunday. Simpson's display of clutch birdie putts down the stretch was a welcoming sight for a player who nearly saw his career become derailed after an anchoring ban was put into place during the 2016 season, but through various style changes over the past few years, the American has roared back by becoming one of the best putters in the world with his new "claw grip."
While you are always going to need the winner to find upper-level DFS success, Simpson was required this weekend if you wanted any chance to sniff most leaderboards. The 34-year-old was owned in a staggering 27.9% of lineups in the 'Millionaire Maker,' and there was only one player in the top-five of DFS scoring that carried a total of under 10 percent (Joaquin Niemann 2.5%). We had many readers of this article post substantial sums of their own, so be sure to send me a screenshot whenever you find yourself having a big win!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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Travelers Championship - PGA DFS Overview
TPC River Highlands
6,841 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua (With Bentgrass)
TPC River Highlands was initially built in 1928 by Robert Ross but was re-designed twice in the 1980s by Pete Dye and Bobby Weed. There will be a lot of discussion within the industry of what kind of game will benefit the most from the layout, but I seem to be in the minority when it comes to my thoughts. While the venue does measure in as one of the shortest on tour, strokes gained off the tee should not be viewed as a negative. Driving accuracy is nearly six percentage points higher here than your average tour stop, and there is room to create separation with your driver.
That is not to say that approach statistics won't be equally as crucial, but I do believe there isn't as pronounced of an advantage to be had as most weeks. Instead of piling up on an abundant quantity of approach totals into your model, ball striking and proximity from 125-175 yards would be my preferred territory to place the majority of my emphasis. A little approach thrown into the filter isn't the end of the world, but I do worry that you run the risk of being too heavily weighted on a statistic that might not carry as much substance as it appears on paper.
Another week of small greens should have us attaching some weight when it comes to around the green numbers, and birdie making skills will be at a premium with the event typically playing as a shootout. Add in a little driving distance, par-four scoring and putting on Poa Annua/Bentgrass greens, and you begin to form a pretty good indication of what might be needed for the week.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC River Highlands | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 280 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 66% | 60% |
| GIR Percentage | 67% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.48 | 0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas all lead the way at 14/1 and are followed by Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson and Brooks Koepka at 20/1. Four additional players slot in between 25 to 30/1, and Chez Reavie, your defending champion of this event, comes into the week at 125/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green 20%
- Ball Striking 20%
- Proximity From 125-175 Yards 17.5%
- Par-Four Average 17.5%
- Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
- OTT+Driving Distance + Scrambling 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Rory McIlroy ($11,200)
It has been a slow restart for Rory McIlroy, who has seen his past two tournaments end in less than stellar finishes outside the top-30. Overall, McIlroy's irons have not been as crisp as we are used to seeing them, but you can go down the board with everything not quite stacking up in the fashion we are used to getting out of the 31-year-old. While TPC River Highlands might not appear to be the venue where McIlroy can get the most out of his driver, the open fairways should allow the Irishman to bomb away at one of the shortest courses on tour. Advancing the ball down the fairway here is not a negative, and McIlroy has bounceback potential oozing through the cracks.
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)
Bryson DeChambeau kept the momentum rolling with his fifth straight top-eight finish during last week's RBC Heritage, but the big-hitting American had to leave Hilton Head moderately disappointed after a Sunday 70 stunted his overall finish. DeChambeau is trending towards being the most popular player on the DraftKings slate in Connecticut, but it isn't easy to find many reasons to avoid him. DeChambeau ranks inside the top-31 in all my key statistics this weekend, although his mid-irons haven't been as on point as you would hope. I believe a strong case can be made to pivoting from DeChambeau onto McIlroy because of ownership totals, but we are splitting hairs otherwise.
Justin Thomas ($10,800)
Unfortunately, Justin Thomas' ascension up the leaderboard at Harbour Town will have some ownership affects for us this weekend. Thomas is currently projected to be the second-highest owned player on the DraftKings slate (behind only Bryson DeChambeau), but it is easy to understand the rationale behind the cavalcade of DFS participants sticking their flag behind the third-ranked player in the world. There's enough ownership spread between DeChambeau, Thomas and McIlroy that you can get away with going overweight on any of the choices, but it won't be easy to choose between the three on the week. All are ELITE options.
Webb Simpson ($10,500)
We get a $1,500 jump in pricing on Webb Simpson this week after winning the RBC Heritage. That increase in salary should cause the nearly 30 percent of DraftKings participants who owned him last weekend to look elsewhere, but it is never a terrible idea to go back to the well when a player is showing quality form. It is difficult to justify paying a salary that is enhanced from his victory, but we did need to see a correction in the market after he entered last week's proceedings at only $9,000. Simpson is probably a better cash-game option than GPP play, but there is some contrarian appeal to be had in large-field events.
John Rahm ($10,200)
Jon Rahm put together a bit of a ho-hum four days in South Carolina, posting a 33rd place showing for the event. Those who followed his weekend rounds will know that the Spaniard missed a plethora of short birdie opportunities throughout his 36 holes, and it does seem likely that the move back to Poa Annua should do him wonders on the putting surface. Rahm isn't quite on the same level as the upper-echelon players in the world, but there is winning equity to be had at a discounted price.
Brooks Koepka ($10,000)
I've been stressing this point for nearly a year, and I think it is just beginning to hit home for some throughout the industry. Brooks Koepka's propensity to struggle in non-major events doesn't come down to a lack of effort or care; it stems from a shortage of practice. Koepka does most of the work with his game when playing in an actual tournament, and we tend to see him struggle in his first few events back from an extended absence. The more golf he plays, the better his results usually get, and we typically see him peak come major time. Koepka will be teeing it up for the third week in a row - a plus given my reasoning behind the situation - but I do believe he has been slightly overinflated on DraftKings. I am interested to see where his ownership eventually settles, but it is hard to play everyone from this range.
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Mid-Priced DFS Players
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)
It has been since the Genesis Invitational in February since we have last seen Patrick Cantlay in action, and the 28-year-old will make his long-awaited return this week at the Travelers Championship. Cantlay has provided two top-15 finishes in his two attempts at TPC River Highlands, but it remains to be seen where his game is at entering the week. Cantlay makes for a better GPP option because of the slight uncertainty, but the upside is there for him to find success if he comes out with guns blazing.
Xander Schauffele ($9,600)
Whether you want to call it a one-week hangover for Xander Schauffele or something else, the four-time PGA Tour winner was stuck in quicksand last weekend at Harbour Town, posting a disappointing 64th place result. Schauffele was able to rally together rounds of 66 on Friday and Sunday, but the 26-year-old looked faulty with almost all facets of his game. Theoretically, TPC River Highlands should provide a nice rebound spot for the American, and we should be looking at him at a discounted ownership percentage.
Dustin Johnson ($9,400)
From an overall performance standpoint, last weekend was probably the best we have seen Dustin Johnson look over four days in quite some time. Johnson gained an impressive 8.5 shots with his driver and irons for the week, but as has been the case far too often for the 20-time PGA Tour winner, he was let down on the greens by his putter. Johnson will get a crack to try his hand on his preferred putting surface of Poa Annua, making him an intriguing upside play if his flat stick cooperates for the week.
Collin Morikawa ($9,100)
After gaining strokes with his irons over his previous 11 tournaments, Collin Morikawa faltered in South Carolina for the first time since August 11th, losing 0.9 shots with his approach game. It is difficult to tell what exactly went wrong over the four days for the young sensation out of UCLA, but I am willing to chalk it up to nothing more than a fluke. Morikawa has yet to lose strokes with his irons in back-to-back tournaments in his career, and I don't believe he will start at TPC River Highlands.
Abraham Ancer ($9,000)
You aren't going to see many play the quality of golf that Abraham Ancer did last weekend and lose very often. Ancer was sensational both off the tee and with his irons, ranking first in driving accuracy, greens in regulation and strokes gained approach. Unfortunately, Ancer's putter let him down when he needed it most, and he is going to need to let the past quickly exit his mind if he is going to find success at TPC River Highlands. Ancer has posted one top-50 finish here in his three attempts - an eighth-place showing last season. His increase in popularity does have me worried if he can't get his head back on straight after his narrow miss, but there is another side of this argument that would point to him being potentially undervalued because of his immaculate tee-to-green game that is clearly firing on all cylinders.
Paul Casey ($8,900)
Five straight top-17 finishes at TPC River Highlands since 2015, including two seconds and two fifths, should help to explain what makes Paul Casey an intriguing target this weekend in Connecticut, but will there be any rust for the Englishman after not playing since the WGC-Mexico in February? If you want to view him from a statistical sense, he is a premier option, but you are going to have to trust your gut on this one. I believe the lack of golf leading into the week does take him out of the running for cash-game builds, but the choice is yours when it comes to GPPs.
Bubba Watson ($8,800)
Is everyone ready for Bubba Watson week? Consider me very surprised that Watson isn't currently projected to garner 20%+ ownership, but you would have to imagine that any estimate that you see for him is probably going to be moderately low. Watson is going to be one of the most tipped golfers from touts, and his three victories here since 2010 will drive many to the 46th-ranked player in the world. Watson's creativity and distance off the tee have been a catalyst for his achievements at TPC River Highlands, and while I do think he is somewhat overpriced because various casinos have baked in his past success at the venue, it is hard to point against him for a stylistic standpoint. Bubba does just about everything you would hope to see from a player you are targeting.
Sungjae Im ($8,600)
How did Sungjae Im handle his missed cut in South Carolina? By going to the range on Saturday morning to warm up with the players who would be playing in round three! While it may sound like a punchline to a joke, the video above does indeed show the South Korean fully geared up and ready to play a round of golf. Im should be itching to get himself back out there after losing 4.4 shots on the greens at RBC Heritage, and it is worth noting that his second-biggest loss with his putter also came the season before at Harbour Town. Im bounced back with a 31st place showing after that performance last season, and I believe we should be expecting even better than that this time around, given his improvement in skill over the past year.
Gary Woodland ($8,300)
Gary Woodland's 62nd place showing at the RBC Heritage doesn't look great on paper, but there were a few breaking points that tore his four-day performance apart. If we turn his double bogey on Sunday and his quadruple bogey in round 3 into pars, we see his production jump to a share of 33rd place. That still isn't necessarily ideal for a venue that should have been tailormade for his total driving skills, but Woodland will get a pristine opportunity to rebound at another track that suits his game. The American ranks third for me in my model, and inside the top-21 for all the statistical categories I am weighting.
Tony Finau($8,200)
Tony Finau faltered with a disappointing one-under par on Sunday at the RBC Heritage, dropping from 11th place to his eventual finish of 33rd. We can blame some of it on Harbour Town not being an ideal setup for the long-hitter, but Finau's usually trusty irons from within 200 yards failed him over four days. However, TPC River Highlands does set up to be an excellent venue for the one-time PGA Tour winner to have his tee-to-green prowess shine through, and it shouldn't hurt that he ranks nearly 30 spots better on my spreadsheet when it comes to his play on Poa grass versus other surfaces.
Low-Priced DFS Players
Viktor Hovland ($7,800)
Similar to Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland's firey finish at Heritage will cause a partial overreaction in the market on DFS sites. I don't think it is outrageous to say there is a chance for the Norweigan golfer to approach 20% ownership for the week, but when do we reach the point that it is too extreme? Honestly, we might already be there for Hovland, who is hard to argue against at his $7,800 price tag, but it is not as if the 22-year-old has been steady with his results. No top-20 finishes over his last nine tournaments should cause some concern, and I'd probably rather be underweight and make the youngster beat me, even if he does grade out well for the event.
Scottie Scheffler ($7,600)
Scottie Scheffler will be making his tournament debut at TPC River Highlands this week after withdrawing before the RBC Heritage. There was some speculation that Scheffler might have been dealing with Covid-19 when the news first broke last weekend, but it is now safe to say that the American's removal from the event involved something else entirely. Scheffler makes for an extremely strong pivot if you are trying to be somewhat contrarian in this range, although he should still garner nearly 10 percent ownership himself. Scheffler is ranking 14th on my model when it comes to strokes gained tee-to-green, and he places an impressive sixth in driving distance.
Jason Kokrak ($7,400)
My mid-tournament model after day one essentially labeled six golfers as being massive underperformers for the day at the RBC Heritage. Joel Dahmen, Abraham Ancer, Sergio Garcia, Joaquin Niemann and Corey Conners all turned their event into shots at the title with their play over the next three days, but it was not to be for Jason Kokrak, who proceeded to disappoint on Friday and missed the cut at even-par. I would be careful and not overexpose myself to Kokrak with his two straight missed cuts at this venue, I do believe he carries hidden GPP appeal if his putter can cooperate - a massive ask during any event for the 35-year-old.
Ryan Moore ($6,900)
A Thursday 73 at Harbour Town ended Ryan Moore's bid for the weekend, and the same could be said about his Friday 74 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Moore is playing better golf than meets the eye, and he has thrown in two top-17 results at TPC River Highlands in his past three attempts. His slow restart has diminished his salary and should greatly reduce his ownership, but there is upside for a sneaky top-20 out of the former UNLV product.
Russell Henley ($6,800)
Russell Henley was unable to make the cut last weekend in South Carolina after bogeying the 18th hole with a wedge in his hand from just about 100 yards out. That result mixed with his missed cut showing at TPC River Highlands in 2019 has plummeted both his outright and DFS price, but it is important to note that Henley has recorded two top-11 appearances here since 2016. The American was on a hot run before the three-month cancellation halted his season, and I think it makes sense to chalk his result last weekend up to nothing more than a fluky finish.
