Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Rocket Mortgage

June 30, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Travelers Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Rocket Mortgage. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Rocket Mortgage

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Detroit Golf Club

7,300 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa Annua (With Bentgrass)

It would be a stretch to say that the PGA Tour's first two runs in Detroit have been a success. Winning scores of 25-under and 23-under aren't exactly the type of events I like to see from a viewing experience, and it hasn't helped matters that an overall lack of star power has been felt across the board. This week's field does give us back the 2020 defending champion in Bryson DeChambeau, the reigning Masters winner in Hideki Matsuyama, as well as Webb Simpson, Joaquin Niemann and Patrick Reed, to name a few participants, but it is hard to call this a premier tournament that will challenge players in any fashion.

Donald Ross originally designed the venue in 1914, with a similar tree-lined nature still being prominent from the day it was built. The greens feature a combination of Bentgrass and Poa Annua, and it looks as if the putting surface will be set up to play quickly once again. Water only comes into play on one hole, but the entire venue has strategic bunkering throughout. All four par-fives are scorable and will allow eagles chances for those willing to take a few risks, but the overall feel of the week adds a few handicapping issues.

Strokes gained in the categories of off the tee, approach and around the green are each a few percentage points below tour average when we look at the dispersion in scores, which naturally means putting grades eight percent above average. As someone that doesn't incorporate much putting into their model ever, it creates an uncomfortable position for my research. My initial stance is to be cautious in your approach for the week since birdie fests often open the field up for everyone participating, but it doesn't mean we can't pinpoint value with a deeper dive into miscellaneous scoring data that might come into play.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Patrick Reed at 14/1, Hideki Matsuyama at 16/1, Webb Simpson at 18/1 and Will Zalatoris at 25/1.

Key Stats 

• Weighted Putting + Weighted Proximity 35%
• SG Total On Easy Courses L50 20%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
• Overall Birdie or Better 15%
• Weighted OTT + APP 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Patrick Reed ($10,900) - Did someone say there is potential for this to turn into a putting contest? If that's the case, Patrick Reed should be on your shortlist of options to consider at the top of the board. The American ranks eighth in this field in my weighted putting category, which features make percentages from 0-15 feet and graded out second in strokes gained total over my two-year rolling model. The 30-year-0ld also comes in as one of the better overall birdie makers in this field - ranking third overall and seventh on par-fives.
• Most Upside: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400) - We could say this about pretty much any course Bryson DeChambeau tees up at weekly, but the fact that he comes into the week as the defending champion shows that the big-hitter can conquer Detroit Golf Club. In the five categories that I attached a weight to for the Rocket Mortgage, DeChambeau ranked 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd and 5th, as well as coming in second in recent results and first in course history. The sky is the limit.
• Favorite GPP Play: Webb Simpson ($10,600) - We have seen a more condensed schedule from Webb Simpson in 2021, but don't let the lack of golf fool you. Paul Tesori (his caddie) said it best when he went onto a podcast and mentioned that Simpson would only play in non-major/WGC events that he thought he could win. And the fact that he is in Detroit is good enough for me to take a chance on the 15th-ranked player in the world in GPP contests at his roughly 10 percent going rate.
• Fade: Will Zalatoris ($10,000) - Look, I think the Korn Ferry type feel of Detroit Golf Club might be precisely what Will Zalatoris needs to get his game back on track, but we can't play everyone at the top of the board. Zalatoris is the only player in this section that ranks outside of my top-10 golfers, and it is less than ideal that he didn't make a birdie in his previous start at the U.S. Open. I know this is a much different test than he faced at Torrey Pines, but the lofty ownership he possesses still has him inside the top-10 players for the week.
• Most Likely Winner: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400)

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Jason Kokrak ($9,500) - Ownership seems to be flocking to Jason Kokrak early in the week, as the American is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. From a statistical perspective, it is hard to find much wrong with Kokrak, and I believe the public support is warranted on the 24th-ranked player in the world.
• Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann - ($9,800) - I don't believe there is a massive difference in what Joaquin Niemann and Jason Kokrak bring to the table for the Rocket Mortgage, so I will lean toward the Chilean and his reduced ownership percentage when given a chance in a lot of game types. Single-entry and three-max builds could still go either way, but I struggle in paying roughly 10 percent more if these numbers don't move by Thursday in mass-field GPP contests.
• Favorite GPP Play: Matthew Wolff ($9,100) - I can't believe I am writing this after correctly pinpointing Matthew Wolff as my fade of the week for the Travelers Championship, but I keep getting drawn to the fact that Wolff ranks second in this field over his past 50 rounds at easy scoring courses. If the American starts catching steam throughout the industry, I am out...but there is room for upside here at his 10% total.
• Fade: Keegan Bradley ($9,000) - One could argue that a lot of what Keegan Bradley does well gets negated at a venue that hands out a high GIR percentage to the field. Bradley will need to be exponentially better than his competitors in his ball-striking metrics, assuming he doesn't catch lightning in a bottle with his putter (something I struggle to ever predict for the American). Bradley ranks 46th overall in my model and 66th from a safety perspective and is the only player to be outside the top-40 in the $9,000 and above range.
• Most Likely Winner: Joaquin Niemann ($9,800) 

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: None - I think a strong argument could be made that Charley Hoffman and his 14-straight made cuts should be in this spot, but his results have been heading south for the last few weeks.
• Most Upside: Kevin Kiser ($8,500) -It had been an awful run for Kevin Kisner leading up to the Travelers Championship, but a fifth-place finish should put him solely back on the map for a venue that highlights his game. The American ranks eighth in this field over his last 50 rounds on easy courses and is ninth in putting from 5-10 feet.
• Favorite GPP Play: None - I don't love this range. Si Woo Kim will be under-owned because of his lack of success at Detroit Golf Club, and I don't mind paying the chalk for Cameron Tringale, but it would probably be Kevin Kisner if forced to pick someone. I'd prefer he didn't land under every category!
• Fade: Phil Mickelson ($8,000) - His PGA Championship victory is still carrying a ton of weight. Not sure we would see him anywhere near the $8,000 range without it.
• Most Likely Winner: Kevin Kisner ($8,500)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Brendon Todd ($7,900) 
• Most Upside: Cameron Davis ($7,200)
• Favorite GPP Play: Maverick McNealy ($7,700)
• Fade: Kyle Stanley ($7,600) - I don't love his upside in GPP's at 12% ownership
• Most Likely Winner: Maverick McNealy ($7,700)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Satoshi Kodaira ($6,800), Austin Eckroat ($6,700), Adam Long ($6,700), Danny Lee ($6,700), Vaughn Taylor ($6,600), Harry Higgs ($6,600), Adam Schenk ($6,500), Aaron Baddeley ($6,400), Rob Oppenheim ($6,400), Peter Malnati ($6,400), Ben Taylor ($6,100)

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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