RADIO
Spencer Aguiar breaks down the DraftKings slate, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Tyrrell Hatton may have a reputation for being hotheaded on the course, but the Englishman was as cold as ice down the stretch during his first career PGA Tour title. Hatton played the final seven holes at even-par, a total that might not sound like much on paper but was stable enough given the combustibility rate going on around him. Hatton's victory moves him up to 22nd in the world and continues the torrid stretch of golf he has provided when healthy since September of last year.
In the $5 Drive the Green contest on DraftKings, it took a massive effort for gamers to cash after Rory McIlroy (39%) and Tyrrell Hatton (23%) ranked as your most owned players on the slate. While the two chalkiest selections did find success, there was some volatility to be found elsewhere. Tony Finau, Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson all accumulated 15%+ ownership levels en route to a missed cut, but the ship quickly found its sails with Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman and Collin Morikawa all delivering robust results from a high ownership total.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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Players Championship - PGA DFS Overview
TPC Sawgrass
7,189 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
TPC Sawgrass has always been a tough nut to crack. Typically walking a fine line between challenging and sadistic, the event played as a shootout last season in its first showing during March since 2006. Conditions will always be the ultimate decider of how difficult of a week we are going to get, but it does seem likely that the two-month move will help golfers receive a venue that is more well-equipped to find success.
In my opinion, TPC Sawgrass was initially created to be played in colder weather conditions. As we approach summer in May, dormant Bermuda grass can quickly turn the venue into a firm/fast test that isn't conducive for the shot shapes needed on holes. Before last season, one of the only ways to stop your ball on the putting surface would be to hit a run-up shot. Unfortunately, many holes at the facility aren't designed to be played in that fashion, causing GIR percentage to plummet from certain angles. However, all of that changes in March. The overseeded rye is favorable to how the property is set up and allows players to fly it and stop it with greater ease.
With all that being said, scoring will still be tricky at times. TPC Sawgrass features some of the smallest putting surfaces on tour, and because of the restricted space, strokes gained around the green will be amplified. The 17 water hazards and 88 bunkers provide trouble at every turn, but it is worth noting that the rough is not very penal. My biggest piece of advice would be to take some of the statistical breakdowns you read this week with a grain of salt. We don't have a significant sample size of the disparity between May to March, and there should be some skepticism when it comes to what is expected.
Let's take a look at the stats:
|
Stat |
TPC Sawgrass |
Tour Average |
|
Driving Distance |
280 |
283 |
|
Driving Accuracy |
62% |
60% |
|
GIR Percentage |
64% |
65% |
|
Scrambling Percentage |
54% |
57% |
|
Average Three-Putts Per Round |
0.60 |
0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 12/1, Justin Thomas at 16/1 and Tommy Fleetwood at 22/1. Eight additional players slot in at 25/1 and your defending champion of this event is Rory McIlroy.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee 15%
- Par-Four Average 15%
- Ball Striking 15%
- Par-Five BOB% 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Approach 12.5%
- Proximity From 125-175 Yards 10%
- Proximity From 175 Yards+ 10%
- Strokes Gained Around The Green 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Rory McIlroy ($11,700) - What else is there to say about Rory McIlroy? The Irishman has not finished worse than a share of fifth place in any of his last seven worldwide starts, but there has still been some disappointment felt by those that have rostered him during his magnificent run. I think you can make a decently strong case that McIlroy will not be the highest owned player on the DraftKings slate, but he should still be at the top of your list of options to consider.
Jon Rahm ($11,000) - You are not going to hear too many gripes from me about anyone at the very top of the board. Pricing is soft throughout, which allows you to fit in your big guns in virtually every lineup if that is the route you decide to take. With all that being said, Rahm is probably your most volatile selection of this week's big three. While he should have captured the title here last season, his implosion down the stretch resulted in a mundane 12th place showing. Weather, water and bunkers are there to provide havoc, and Rahm has never been shy to have a round go south quickly.
Justin Thomas ($10,800) - When we think of the skillset needed to find success at TPC Sawgrass, a prototype of Justin Thomas comes to mind. I do believe the move from May to March will help golfers who have extra length off the tee, and I base that on not only the greens being more receptive for approach shots but also because of the leaderboard we were given last season. Some of the best players in the world off the tee found their names in contention on Sunday, and while Thomas might be a slight step below Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm or Dustin Johnson when it comes to his driving prowess, he is still an elite golfer that has the complete package with his distance, iron play and around the green touch. I worry slightly that his meltdown in Mexico could linger one for another start, but it is going to be challenging to find a better statistical fit than Thomas, especially if we exclude McIlroy's name from the list.
Brooks Koepka ($10,200) - If only the Players Championship were an official major, then I guess Brooks Koepka could have a shot to win this weekend. I've never been a believer in this facade that the American only tries in four tournaments a year, but it is nearly impossible to trust where his game is at currently. For those looking for a reason to play Koepka, he did tie for the third-best round on the course on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but it is difficult to find much else to like if you exclude the fact that he provides an opportunity to leverage ownership. Between injury and his lack of practicing, I'd prefer to wait for some signs of life before jumping back in.
Dustin Johnson ($10,000) - Dustin Johnson is the wild card for me of golfers priced at $10,000 or above. He is in the midst of one of his worst statistical seasons since turning pro in 2008, but it isn't all doom and gloom for the fifth-ranked player in the world. Johnson has gained strokes off the tee in his previous six events, around the green in his last two and has shown improvement with his irons as of late. For whatever reason, Johnson's ability to hit shots from inside 125 yards has become suspect, but he should be able to avoid that distance at TPC Sawgrass and has a chance to provide an excellent rebound effort.
Mid-Priced DFS Players
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) - Patrick Cantlay has been out of action for the past few weeks after having surgery to fix his deviated septum. Recovery time from the procedure typically takes one to three weeks, and Cantlay may have just picked his clubs back up recently. There is also a chance that the American has been grinding away and is in tip-top shape for the tournament. I lean towards the latter being the case and will gladly take a reduction in ownership if it presents itself.
Adam Scott ($9,600) - The change from May to March didn't do much towards Adam Scott's results at TPC Sawgrass, as the Aussie provided his fourth consecutive top-12 finish at the event. The ninth-ranked player in the world does the brunt of his work through his stellar mid-iron play, but his distance off the tee shouldn't be discounted at a venue that won't hurt his driving accuracy woes, assuming he misses his drives to the right side. Scott has always shown an ability to do that at the Players Championship and should be expected to provide another quality result.
Xander Schauffele ($9,400) - I took a deeper dive into Xander Schauffele this week and looked at what exactly has transpired for him in his past few events. From a statistical standpoint, Schauffele always looks impressive. He hits a ton of greens in regulation, and you aren't going to find too many weaknesses in his game. However, there was an interesting trend that kept popping up over and over again. If we exclude Schauffele's victory at the 2019 Tournament of Champions - an event that saw him gain the fifth most strokes putting I could find for him on record - most of his success tends to come at facilities that feature smaller green complexes. I believe part of the reason behind that is due to Schauffele's more conservative nature on his approach shots. Yes, the 12th-ranked player in the world gains strokes with his irons consistently all over the globe, but the majority of that total comes from hitting a high percentage of greens in regulation. We then see Schauffele tend to lose strokes with his putter because of nothing more than the sheer length he is leaving himself on his birdie chances. Birdie opportunities are too far for us to expect him to make them with any regularity, which increases his chances of three-putting on larger surfaces. But a venue like TPC Sawgrass alleviates those concerns. When Schauffele takes a more conservative route at a site with smaller greens, his birdie putts tend to come from a shorter distance than he is accustomed to having. I don't have a great answer for why he has struggled recently around the greens, but his 0.769 strokes gained on Sunday at the API will hopefully get him back on track.
Webb Simpson ($9,200) - Webb Simpson's victory here in 2018 will make him extremely popular in all contests this week. Personally, I don't think Simpson's win equity is as good as advertised, but it is hard to argue against him being a staple for cash-game lineups. I worry that his off the tee skills aren't up to snuff, and it is enough for me to avoid him in GPP contests - even if he does have a good chance at a top-20 finish.
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100) - You could place Bryson DeChambeau's ownership at any number above 20%, and I wouldn't be surprised. DeChambeau is going to be this week's chalk selection, but it isn't easy to find a ton of solid reasons around fading him. His price is substantially too low given his current form, and as I have mentioned an extensive amount of times in this piece already, strokes gained off the tee should matter. The Players Championship can be volatile and provide wonky leaderboards, but I am not sure I can get myself off of the 26-year-old entirely.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800) - You have to figure out a way to deviate somewhere if you take too many popular selections such as Hideki Matsuyama or Bryson DeChambeau, but here is another example of a player this underpriced. I do think you can make a case that Matsuyama is better suited as a cash-game play because of his lack of perceived win equity, but it is not as if you need a victory at $8,800 for him to pay off his price tag. A top-10 showing would be sufficient with the way the Japenese sensation can make birdies in bunches, and that's good enough for me.
Patrick Reed ($8,500) - In DFS, you have to pick and choose your spots where you want to take a stand against individual players. We can't own every golfer on the board, and tough choices need to be made when we crunch down who is in our core. To me, Reed is someone who is going to generate a fair share of support after his recent run at the WGC-Mexico and Honda Classic, but I don't believe he is the best statistical fit for this week's venue. From my model, Reed ranks 73rd in the field in strokes gained off the tee and 126th in ball striking.
Gary Woodland ($8,300), Paul Casey ($8,200) - I don't generally like linking two players together, but the statistical similarities are uncanny between Gary Woodland and Paul Casey. Both Woodland and Casey have a chance to find success this weekend in Florida, but each will need to enhance their work around the greens if they want a possibility to hoist the title. I give the slightest edge to Casey in that regard, but I wouldn't overlook the ball-striking acumen of either man.
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,000) - You are going to have to search deep to find much to like about Louis Oosthuizen after his previous two showings at the Honda Classic and WGC-Mexico, however, there are things we can point towards that can be viewed as encouraging. Oosthuizen's irons have been known to be hit-and-miss weekly, but one of the key distances of between 125-175 yards has been the South African's bread and butter over the past year. Add to that a second-place finish here in 2017, and you can slowly start to see a light form of potential.
Low-Priced DFS Players
Matt Kuchar ($7,800) - When I ran a model of the past 50 rounds on Pete Dye architected courses/Bermuda greens, Matt Kuchar popped out as the surprise number one player. That mold of an accuracy golfer who doesn't gain too many strokes off the tee is not something I am actively looking to target this weekend in Florida, but his $1,400 discount in price from Webb Simpson gives you a remarkably similar stylistic prototype for a fraction of the cost.
Scottie Scheffler ($7,500) - An early-season surge shot Scottie Scheffler up the board in most DFS and outright markets. Those numbers eventually subsided after the American generated a few poor showings in a row, but the industry has failed to correct itself in recent weeks with Scheffler once again looking like a statistical monster. Scheffler ranks inside the top-10 in my model when it comes to strokes gained off the tee, ball striking, birdie or better percentage, par-four average and mid-iron proximity.
Victor Perez ($7,000) - Everything that could have gone wrong at the WGC-Mexico did for Victor Perez a few weeks ago. It is still impossible to call the Frenchman anything more than a dart throw after scorning a ton of gamers (myself included), but it is intriguing anytime you can acquire one of Europe's best players at potentially sub-one percent ownership.
Corey Conners ($6,800) - Rostering Corey Conners is very similar to that of Byeong Hun An. Conners isn't necessarily at the same level as his counterpart, but your hope always comes down to the Canadian finding a little magic on the greens to go along with his pristine ball-striking nature. Conners has lost a staggering 14.6 strokes putting in his last four events but is still striping the ball as well as ever. Bermuda has historically been his best putting surface, and it wouldn't shock me to see the 66th-ranked player in the world in contention after the first few days if he is capable of rolling in a few putts. What happens from there is anyone's guess.
Jason Kokrak ($6,800) - If you are looking for someone with the best potential to provide a top-20 showing this far down the board, Jason Kokrak might be one of your best targets. The American is ranked 49th when it comes to his outright price but just 70th overall on DraftKings at $6,800. That difference should tell you all you need to know about the potential value casinos believe Kokrak can bring to the table.
Joel Dahmen ($6,600), Max Homa ($6,600) - It is a shame that DraftKings priced Joel Dahmen and Max Homa this low because it really took away a lot of their GPP appeal. Fifteen percent projected ownership from Dahmen and 10 percent from Homa is never ideal for sub-$6,000 golfers, but I don't have an issue with using either as a salary-saver in cash games.
Ryan Palmer ($6,500) - Anyone emphasizing strokes gained off the tee might want to give Ryan Palmer a second look. His three missed cuts here since 2015 will show off the erratic side to rostering Palmer, but he has provided two 23rd place showings in his other two attempts, as well as a fifth-place finish in 2013. Palmer is most likely going to generate less than five percent ownership because of his perceived fit for TPC Sawgrass, but this is an excellent opportunity to leverage a player that looks to be extremely mispriced.
Sebastian Munoz ($6,100) - Sebastian Munoz doesn't necessarily do a ton of things great, but his ability to score while providing some semblance of avoiding bogey is encouraging at his $6,100 price tag. Munoz has contributed three finishes inside the top-26 in his past six starts and ranks fifth over his past 50 rounds in opportunities gained.
