Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): PGA Championship

August 6, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his PGA Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Justin Thomas captured his 13th career PGA Tour title, outlasting Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger and a slew of additional players down the stretch at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational. Thomas' victory moves him to number one in the world and places him as the man to beat at this week's first major.

The PGA Championship will kick-off a hectic mad-dash over the next three months, and the condensed nature of the schedule might allow a golfer to ride a hot stretch into golf history if they can string together multiple victories during the shortened period. It remains to be seen if that will be the case, but with the first grand slam event finally upon us, let's see if we can figure out where the value is located on DraftKings for the week.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - PGA Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

PGA Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Harding Park

7,251 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bent

Designed in 1925 by Sam Whiting and Willie Watson, Harding Park is located in Western San Francisco and is named after 29th President Warren G. Harding. The venue will be just the fourth time in the 104-year history of the PGA Championship that an event is being held at a municipal golf course. What this typically signifies is that the test will be significantly easier because rates are often set-up in a cheap pay-as-you-go fashion, but Harding Park doesn't offer the same forgiveness as most other munis.

The fairways have been reduced by nearly 60% of their standard width, and the rough is currently positioned to be vicious for anyone that can't find the short grass off the tee. Fairways border next to sand traps and quick-turning doglegs can direct a perfect shot into trouble.

Unlike the usual PGA Championships that reward a bomb-and-gouge nature, Harding Park measures on the shorter side at 7,251 yards. However, being near sea-level will diminish traveling distance for all golfers, and the aforementioned turns and quirks in the layout will substantially lengthen the property. Yes, players like Bryson DeChambeau will be able to cut off the corners, but the thick rough should create a penal experience if they come up short or long. California's giant Cypress trees will add an additional enclosure to the facility that will wreak havoc, but with all that being said, the USGA has suggested that they aren't trying to turn this into a bloodbath for the golfers, meaning we should get a challenging, but fair, test in the year's first major.

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Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Rory McIlroy and John Rahm at 14/1, Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1 and Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele at 20/1.

Key Stats

• OTT+APP 25%
• Par-Four Efficiency 400-500 yards + Bogey Avoidance 20%
• Total Driving 20%
• Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
• Sand Save Percentage 10%
• ATG+Three-Putt Avoidance 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Justin Thomas ($11,300)

After an impressive victory at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, Justin Thomas enters the years first major as the DraftKings favorite at $11,300. If we are looking at how Thomas has responded after hoisting the title in his prior event, he has posted seven top-12 showings, as well as back-to-back wins during the 2017 Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. Thomas is the deserving favorite and will look to bring the momentum with him to San Francisco.

Brooks Koepka ($11,100)

I tend to go contrarian in these situations where past tournament history or results are overly dictating the price of a golfer, and I will most likely find myself down that aisle again when it comes to Brooks Koepka. The American hasn't finished outside 15th place at the PGA Championship since 2014, but we continue to have red flags pop up left and right. Koepka's second-place showing last weekend at TPC Southwind - a venue where he has now produced four top-three appearances since 2015 - might not be the answer that we needed to see to feel comfortable in rostering the sixth-ranked player in the world.  I'm not saying the four-time major winner can't pull another rabbit out of his hat at Harding Park, but it is hard for me to justify paying $11,100 because of tournament history of all things.

Rory McIlroy ($10,700)

I tend to think most of what athletes say during interviews should be taken with a grain of salt, but there does seem to be some correlation between McIlroy's struggles and the lack of fans in attendance. The Irishman keeps placing the blame on a reduction of concentration, so does that mean the PGA Championship gets his undivided attention? Or should we expect the same erratic mindset as the past few tournaments? I won't be excluding McIlroy from my player list because of his immense upside, but there is undoubtedly some concern present.

Jon Rahm ($10,500)

I've noticed that Jon Rahm does his best work at courses that require distance but aren't your typical bomb-and-gouge affairs. The Spaniard's ability to produce a combination of accuracy and length equals a deadly blend to possess, and Harding Park seems to play right into his hands by mixing the two factors together. Statistically, Rahm is ready to take the next step with his game during grand slams, but I'd be lying if I could guarantee the same about his mental capacity to avoid blowing up in spots. The 25-year-old might walk out of San Francisco with his first major title, but there is also a chance for his attitude to get the best of him.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,300)

For all the success Bryson DeChambeau has had early in his career, it might be surprising that he has only cracked the top-20 of a grand slam event once and never has finished better than 33rd place at the PGA Championship. In fairness, we aren't dealing with a robust sample size to conclude much from those numbers, but it does show that DeChambeau does need to start making a move if he wants to avoid any labels that could come his way. The American isn't the same player as he was in years past after rebuilding his body to crush the tour, and I believe we see him post his first top-10 of his career this weekend.

Xander Schauffele ($10,000)

I like Xander Schauffele and have outright tickets on both he and Bryson DeChambeau from earlier in the year, but I think we need to take a deep breath and evaluate why Schauffele is currently projected to garner nearly 10 percent more ownership than DeChambeau at just $300 less on DraftKings. None of this is meant to be a deterrent from using him, as I believe he will provide a top-20 performance, but it is just meant to identify that Schauffele is not the only capable player in this range. Whether you want to spend up for McIlroy, Rahm or DeChambeau or down to Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay or even Tiger Woods, there are other options that make sense. Use Schauffele; just don't forget about everyone else.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

It is dangerous to make too many connections when it comes Webb Simpson's 2012 Olympic Club victory during the U.S. Open in San Francisco and this week's test at Harding Park because the tracks have some pronounced differences, but it is hard to ignore the main factor of it being in the same location and having the same course designers of Sam Whiting and Willie Watson. We should be expecting a hybrid track that borders on both PGA Championship and U.S. Open design, which makes Simpson someone worth considering in all game types. My one concern when it comes to Simpson actually having a chance to win the title would be that Paul Tesori won't be on his bag after suffering from herniated discs and hip pain. That is a big blow for the American if he has a chance down the stretch, but there is still a lot to like for the week.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)

Patrick Cantlay quietly put together rounds of 65 and 67, respectively, at the WGC-St. Jude on Saturday and Sunday. We didn't hear much about it because of his horrendous five-over par start over the opening two days, but it has moved Cantlay into a range that is worth discussing. For comparison sake, Xander Schauffele and Cantlay are extremely similar golfers, and it does feel like a nice spot to take the rebate that is being offered. Both are quality plays, but Cantlay does have better value at this number.

Tiger Woods ($9,200)

I think you could argue that Tiger Woods is marginally overpriced at $9,200 on DraftKings, but I don't have a massive issue with the number if it means fewer DFS participants will play the 82-time PGA Tour winner. Woods has a storied past at Harding Park with a victory at the venue in 2005 and a 5-0 record during the Presidents Cup in 2009, and it would be naive to discount Tiger for the week. Sure, it would have been nice to have some substance to point to of quality form leading into the event, but with great form comes great ownership popularity.

Dustin Johnson ($9,000)

I am going to let overall usage rates lead me to what to do with Dustin Johnson. If the big-hitting American is expected to accumulate 15-plus percent, I don't see the point in overexposing myself to the volatility that Johnson brings to the table. However, there is no arguing that a low-owned DJ provides win equity that is hard to find in a field of this quality.

Daniel Berger ($8,800)

Daniel Berger's run on Sunday at TPC Southwind is going to have ramifications from an ownership percentage this weekend. I was hoping to have Berger slide into the PGA Championship off of a respectable, yet somewhat subsided result in Memphis, but his final round surge into a share of second place is going to make the American one of the most popular plays on the board. Somewhere around $8,600 and $8,800 seemed like a fair valuation when I was projecting Berger's price tag, so it is not as if we are being given a ton of value for what his going rate is in San Francisco, but I'm not going to sit here and dissuade anyone off of Berger either. The PGA Championship typically is a tournament that becomes a breakthrough for a first-time major winner, and Berger has the game to compete for the title.

Jason Day ($8,400)

There is no such thing as safety with Jason Day, but things have turned around for the Aussie over his last three tournaments. Day has finished no worse than seventh place during his stellar run and has a similar PGA Championship record at his disposal over the past five years. The winner of the 2015 PGA Championship has not finished outside of 23rd place since his victory at Whistling Straits and should find Harding Park to suit his long-iron style that has been making a resurgence recently.

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000)

Maybe Tyrrell Hatton's implosion in Memphis wasn't such a surprise, after all. The Englishman had been riding a hot putter throughout his dominant stretch of golf, and the wheels torpedoed off once the first thing went wrong on Thursday. It is at least a built-in excuse we can make for Hatton over a one-week sample size, but should we be concerned moving forward? There is always going to be some trepidation when a top-notch player catapults himself to the bottom of a leaderboard the week before a major, but Hatton's overall ability to score and avoid bogey makes him one of just six players in my model that ranks inside the top-10 for each statistic.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Adam Scott ($7,800)

A lack of golf in the public eye has taken Adam Scott from a potential $9,000 golfer to his current price of $7,800.For reference sake, Scott's victory at the Genesis Invitational in February came after a two-month hiatus from his win at the Australian Open, and I don't view it as a negative that he headed straight to Harding Park to warm up for the week over competing in the WGC. There are definite concerns on the table here, but Scott has finished inside the top-20 in three of his previous four PGA Championships.

Jordan Spieth ($7,700)

I don't recommend Jordan Spieth often, but we do need to discuss him for Harding Park. Spieth has gained strokes with his ball-striking in four of his six events since the restart, and while there are still big numbers to be had when you miss the fairway, the removal of water does negate some of the blow-up potential that comes into play. Spieth's short game and putter are always there to help, and I don't think it will take a Herculean effort off the tee to outproduce his price tag. It also doesn't hurt that you get him at a highly reduced ownership total.

Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

If Harding Park turns into a contest of hitting fairways and connecting on greens in regulation, look no further than Abraham Ancer. Ancer's career seemed to turn around during his impressive Presidents Cup display against the United States in late 2019, and he has carried the momentum with him in 2020 - posting two second-place showings and an additional six top-14 results in his previous 13 worldwide events.

Billy Horschel ($7,400)

I went back and checked because I figured this might be the answer, but in two-and-half years of writing for RotoBaller, I have never recommended Billy Horschel in any fashion. Horschel is not a golfer that fits the mold of what I am looking for on most weeks, but there is always a first time for everything. Horschel enters the week having provided three straight top-25 results, and he has added three top-50s in his previous three PGA Championships. Iron play usually is his undoing, but his game is set up nicely for the first major test of the year.

Chez Reavie ($7,400)

Chez Reavie's mixture of tournament history and current form will make him a popular choice in San Francisco, but it is easy to understand why. According to my model, Reavie ranks 33rd from a statistical perspective, seventh in the past five years at the PGA Championship and fourth over the last five weeks of play. It isn't going to come without popularity, but Reavie is a threat for another top-25 result at this event.

Bubba Watson ($7,400)

When asked during the 2015 WGC-Match Play how Bubba Watson felt about Harding Park, he provided an answer about how the venue suited his ball flight and eye. We have harped on this point countless times about how Watson likes certain tracks, and he brings with him a game that is trending in the right direction. The lefty led the WGC-St. Jude Invitational in strokes gained off the tee and gained an astronomical three strokes putting on Sunday - the first bit of life he has shown with his flat stick in ages.

Henrik Stenson ($7,300)

Henrik Stenson didn't light the world on fire during his first time teeing it up since the restart,  but his 35th place showing in Memphis was enough to pique my curiosity. Stenson presents value as a golfer that might be able to churn out a top-20 result, which is enough to bolster any lineup at his $7,300 price tag.

Erik Van Rooyen ($7,100)

Erik Van Rooyen has transformed into the Jekyll and Hyde of the PGA Tour. That isn't quite ideal from a cash-game or head-to-head perspective, but it does provide a unique opportunity to grab one of the 50 best golfers in the world at a reduced ownership percentage. Van Rooyen has gone 20th, missed cut, 22nd, missed cut, 21st, missed cut, missed cut, and third over his prior eight events, but his top-five showing at the WGC-Mexico should emphasize that there is an inherent possibility for high-end success.

Kevin Na ($7,000)

Maybe it is because I don't incorporate much putting into my research, but Kevin Na always tends to exceed my projections for him. Na does his best work on par-fours between 400-500 yards, a distance that will be in play often for the week, and the removal of two of the par-fives should enhance his ability to keep pace with the rest of the field.

Corey Conners ($7,000)

Make it five top-40 results for Corey Conners in his last six events after finishing 30th at the WGC-St. Jude. Conners is an elite ball-striker that is equally as good off the tee as he is with his irons, but the expectation of what to expect doesn't come without some trepidation. The Canadian is better with short irons than he is with anything outside of 175 yards, and his putting and short-game always have a chance to rear their ugly head. Consider Conners worth a shot in GPP contests, but it doesn't come without risk.

Brendan Steele ($6,900)

Selecting Brendan Steele is equivalent to closing your eyes and praying for the best. When he is good, he is a ball-striking savant that hits a ton of greens in regulation, and when he is bad, well... things turn sour quickly. Steele has missed his previous three PGA Championship cuts but does have two top-19 showings in his other three attempts.

Emiliano Grillo ($6,800)

Options like Brendan Steele and Emiliano Grillo are definitely not considered necessities when you have soft pricing throughout, but Grillo has found something with his game over the last few weeks. A ninth-place at the Barracuda mixed with his third place at the 3M are the two best rounds we have gotten out of him with his putter in months, and it appears as if the Argentinian is peaking at the right time.

Lucas Glover ($6,700)

Ranked fourth in my model in total driving and 22nd in strokes gained off the tee + approach, Lucas Glover disappointed a lot of his backers during the 3M Open en route to a missed cut. That performance should keep ownership condensed around five percent or less, and while I don't think Glover wins the tournament, but there might be more safety here for a made cut than many of the names you are dealing with in the $6,000 range.

Harold Varner III ($6,600)

While Harding Park doesn't have the same green makeup as Riviera Country Club, there are some similarities when it comes to ball flight needed. Harold Varner III held the lead at Riveria for most of the event before stumbling on Sunday, and if the two tracks do happen to mirror each other at all, I believe there is a chance Varner finds himself hovering around the leaderboard into the weekend.

Russell Henley ($6,600)

Russell Henley has been elite with his irons since the Genesis Invitational, gaining 28 strokes in that area in six events. That total ranks him first compared to the field over his previous 24 rounds and has helped him post a top-five ranking in strokes gained tee to green during the same duration of time.

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