Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Open Championship

July 14, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Open Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Open Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Open Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Royal St. George's Golf Course

7,204 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass/Fescue

Like any links-style venue, the weather will be the ultimate decider on how difficult of a test we should expect for the week, but Royal St. George's has widely been regarded as the most challenging stop on the Open Championship rotation. Perhaps all of that changes if the weather remains benign during the four days, but it is worth noting that Greg Norman's 13-under par victory is the only win that has yielded a winning score of greater than five-under par.

Listed as a Par 70 that plays just over 7,200 yards, the track features a combination of fescue and bentgrass throughout the property, with the greens coming in at 40% bent and 60% fescue. That combination tends to lead to a slower surface than we are accustomed to on the PGA Tour, and the wet conditions might only add to that mixture with the amount of rain the area has seen leading up to the week.

Having Open Championship experience looks to be necessary, as 13 of the last 14 winners have had a top-10 at the Open in their careers, and going back to 2010, every winner of the event has provided a top-three finish within their last seven worldwide starts. Total driving looks to be a vital stat because of the nature of the unforgiving bunkers, and one could say that any sand trap might provide a penalty after players only got up and down out of the greenside bunkers 34% of the time here in 2011. Golfers that can hit a high percentage of greens in regulation, control the spin on their irons, scramble, avoid bogeys and make putts from within 5-10 feet should have the best recipe to find success, but it is going to be extremely important to check the weather splits as we get closer to Thursday. This event has historically been known to wipe out particular waves, so adjusting on the fly might be the best tool we can put in our handicapping arsenal for the Open.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Brooks Koepka at 15/1, Rory McIlroy at 16/1, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas at 18/1 and Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth at 20/1

Key Stats 

• Strokes Gained Approach 20%
• Weighted Short Game 20%
• Weighted Ball-Striking 20%
• Strokes Gained In Moderate to Severe Wind 10%
• Sand Save Percentage 10%
• Par-Four Average 10%
• Strokes Gained Off The Tee 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($10,000) - Three straight top-20 finishes at the Open Championship should give us a pretty good indication that Xander Schauffele's game is suited for links-style golf. The American is the only player in this range to grade as a value for me across the board, and he is also one of only three players to finish inside the top-15 in stats, event history and current form - Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Koepka being the other two.
• Most Upside: Jon Rahm ($11,300) -It isn't hard to make a strong case for Jon Rahm, as the Spaniard is listed as the man to beat on Vegas and DFS sites. The biggest hole to poke in Rahm's chances is that he has only posted one top-40 finish at the Open Championship in four tries, but it did come in the last iteration of the tournament and resulted in an eighth-place result. The 26-year-old has a game that travels across the country, and we should see his upside increase if the wind can pick up slightly.
• Favorite GPP Play: Dustin Johnson ($10,400) - It just comes down to leverage. Suppose Dustin Johnson starts creeping up in popularity. In that case, it is easy to pivot fully off of him since I don't have him listed as a "value" at his current price point, but I don't think the American is playing as poorly as the perception currently stands. I want it to be noted that this answer is more suited towards large-field GPP contests where I am trying to get unique, but it shouldn't take much exposure to double or triple the field. The Par 70 nature should help Johnson's game that has been struggling to score on par-fives, and there is a blueprint for him to find a top-end performance. It might be asking a lot for him to win at this moment, but a top-five isn't out of the question.
• Fade: None - Rory McIlroy ($10,900) would technically be my least favorite play of the bunch
• Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm ($11,300) - There is a tiny margin between Rahm, Koepka and Xander on my model. Schauffele will have to win before I start picking him as "the most likely winner" of a region - especially one over $10,000, but I think it makes sense as to why these are the three most popular players in this zone. I will not blame anyone for bypassing this group and starting in the $9,000s since less win equity is being given up than usual, but I do see the path that pushes either Rahm or Koepka into the winner's circle. The article needs a poster boy for the pick, but you aren't going to hear me talk anyone off of Brooks. It is a coin flip.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($9,700) - I'm not sure there is a better style of golf than links for Jordan Spieth. A venue like Royal St. George's will allow him to use his full arsenal of creativity, and he rides into the week having gained strokes off the tee and approach in his last eight starts. The 27-year-old will likely be the highest owned player on the board, but I argue he might be the safest option to deploy for cash-game lineups.
• Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($9,600) - I am not necessarily under the belief that all Open Championships are bad for Justin Thomas. Yes, the 28-year-old is a streaky putter that can sometimes falter in more blustery conditions, but Thomas' short game and propensity to hit his irons close can open up the playbook a little more for him than most players. I think the wind will need to be somewhat subsided for the American to get the most out of his fifth showing at the event, but early weather reports have cooperated to that line of thinking.
• Favorite GPP Play: Collin Morikawa ($9,200) - There is a level of experience needed for any player to hoist the Claret Jug, and I believe that line of thinking will keep Collin Morikawa's ownership down in his first Open Championship. I am not anticipating a victory out of the 24-year-old, but a top-10 showing would go a long way if we are being given a version of him that is entering the week at under 10 percent ownership on DraftKings.
• Fade: None - If you want to fade Bryson DeChambeau at $9,900, go for it. He is the only golfer in this section (or above) outside the top-30 for me in my model, but there is contrarian GPP upside for those who want to throw a dart. Three percent ownership doesn't factor in the win potential he possesses, albeit a farfetched idea for an event like this. I just find it challenging to recommend someone as a fade when the whole industry wants nothing to do with a golfer that can win big events.
• Most Likely Winner: Jordan Spieth ($9,700)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Patrick Reed ($8,800) - Patrick Reed has turned in four top-28 finishes in the last five years at this tournament, and enters the week having quietly produced six top-32s over his last seven events. The American arguably has the best short game in the world, and it should be on full display in England.
• Most Upside: Patrick Cantlay ($8,900) -  Full disclosure, Patrick Cantlay is my pick to win the event. A debate could be had that the 29-year-old would have been better served if he had more Open practice under his built than just two starts, but when I factor in his age, which provides more experience than what we see on paper, I think the timing is perfect for Cantlay to capture his first major title.
• Favorite GPP Play: Patrick Cantlay ($8,900) 
• Fade: European Golfers - I'll be underweight to some of the European players that are getting a boost in price in this $8,000 range - specifically Justin Rose, who is receiving the full benefit of the doubt because of his track record.
• Most Likely Winner: Patrick Cantlay ($8,900)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Sergio Garcia ($7,600) - Ten top-10s in 23 Open appearances
• Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($7,700) - Low-ball flight hitter that statistically has a lot going for his game.
• Favorite GPP Play: Jason Day ($7,700) - The font is a little different than anything else in this article, and my expectation level is a little higher than usual.
• Fade: Gary Woodland ($7,300), Brian Harman ($7,100), Billy Horschel ($7,000)
• Most Likely Winner: Jason Day ($7,700)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Stewart Cink ($6,900), Kevin Kisner ($6,900), Matt Jones ($6,800), Charley Hoffman ($6,700), Joel Dahmen ($6,700), Lucas Glover ($6,600), Talor Gooch ($6,600), Carlos Ortiz ($6,400), Chan Kim ($6,200) 

Sam Burns ($6,300) is wildly mispriced but will garner the ownership that shows that.

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