Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Northern Trust

August 19, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Northern Trust DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Jim Herman captured his second PGA Tour victory over the past 13 months, which ironically was also just his second top-25 result over his previous 55 PGA Tour events. That sort of volatility is a decent indicator to keep in mind when trying to pick golfers with a boom-or-bust nature, although a win like Herman's is almost impossible to see coming when it comes to just the stats.

As far as our article was concerned, we did a great job highlighting Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel, Harris English, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley and Bud Cauley, but we did come up short on Ryan Moore. We will try to keep the positive momentum rolling into the FedExCup playoffs, so without further ado, let's see if we can pinpoint where the value is on the DraftKings board this week.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Northern Trust

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

Northern Trust - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Boston

7,342 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

And. Here. We. Go! With the FedExCup playoffs upon us, golf's mad dash to the finish line will begin at this week's Northern Trust. One hundred and twenty-five of the world's best players will attempt to stay alive at TPC Boston and hopefully get themselves in a position to compete for a title along the way.

The venue presents many similarities to the recent PGA Championship held at Harding Park, which will emphasize connecting on fairways and controlling distance with long irons. Fairways are a little easier to hit for this week's test, but second shots will be lengthy, with nearly 47 percent coming from 175 yards or beyond.

I'm never one that places much emphasis on putting, but the greens are lightning quick and will favor golfers that prefer fast surfaces. That doesn't mean to get carried away with the weight you attach to bent putting, but it wouldn't hurt to look at players that excel when given a speedier test. The winning score is typically 15-under par or better, so finding players that can rack up birdies will be necessary, especially on the easily accessible par-fives.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas lead the way at 12/1 and are followed by Rory McIlroy at 14/1, Jon Rahm/Dustin Johnson at 16/1 and Collin Morikawa at 20/1.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Off The Tee + Approach 20%
• Par-Four Efficiency 400-500 Yards + Bogey Avoidance 15%
• Par-Five Birdie Or Better 15%
• Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
• Overall Birdie Or Better 12.5%
• Around The Green + Bunker 12.5%
• Lightning-Quick Bent Putting L50 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Justin Thomas ($11,300)

It is one of those spots where we have too many high-end options and not enough room to fit all of them into the $11,000 range That leaves us with a situation where we are forced to grasp at straws up top and hope we choose the best player for the week. In a vacuum, Justin Thomas is likely the most deserving golfer to feature as the highest priced option, with the American doing just about everything you would hope to see at TPC Boston. His ability to putt on quick Bentgrass greens shouldn't be discounted, and he features a premier skillset around the greens and in the bunkers.

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100)

Relatively wide fairways should mean it is bombs away for Bryson DeChambeau at the Northern Trust, although there are trees that come into play if the 26-year-old does veer wildly off course. DeChambeau is technically the defending champion at the venue after winning at TPC Boston during its last stop on the PGA Tour in 2018, and he possesses the game to get the job done again.

Rory McIlroy ($10,800)

Rory McIlroy has turned into the mystery man of what to do with weekly. The Irishman has failed to crack the top-10 since the restart, and while I do believe TPC Boston sets up nicely for him - which is shown by his victory here in 2016 - you are just flipping a coin on what to expect. Unless we are projected to get a five percent owned version of McIlroy, I'd prefer to play the waiting game and see some life before jumping back into the fray.

Dustin Johnson ($10,400)

Random portions of inconsistency have marred Dustin Johnson's season. On the surface, there haven't been too many complaints to be had for his production level, but far too often victories have been followed by rounds in the 80s and then again followed by second-place showings. That makes Johnson a relatively intriguing prospect to consider in GPP contests, and his three straight top-18 results at the property would mirror that sentiment.

Collin Morikawa ($10,200)

We get to see Collin Morikawa for the first time since becoming a major champion in San Francisco, and it appears as if sportsbooks and DFS sites are a little confused about how to treat him for the week. I tend to lean towards this being a relatively fair price when we consider all factors that come into play, but can we be sure that he isn't actually the best player in the world? I'll most likely find myself pivoting onto Jon Rahm in spots, but it doesn't mean Morikawa won't be a part of my player pool.

Jon Rahm ($10,000)

Jon Rahm is the prime example of too many players that should be priced near the top of the board and not enough room to fit them all in as implied $11,000 options. Rahm is just a few weeks removed from being the number one player in the world, and his reduction in salary will cause the masses to flock to him on DraftKings. However, chalk is not always bad, making Rahm the best value to be had in this high-priced range.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Jason Day ($9,300)

Jason Day has provided eight top-25s at TPC Boston over the past 10 seasons, including nearly taking down the contest in back-to-back years in 2010 and 2011. The amount you play Day is going to come down to what side of the aisle you find yourself on when it comes to his current game. One could argue that Day is finally appropriately priced after sitting in limbo over the past two seasons, but there is a mindset that will dictate that we still haven't reached his peak performance capabilities. I tend to lean towards the latter, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him finally get the win he has been chasing at the venue.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)

Rory McIlroy's failure in recent weeks has given a pass to Patrick Cantlay, who hasn't finished inside the top-30 since the Workday Charity Open. I don't have a great answer to what has gone wrong because he hasn't been overly faulty in any area, but things as a whole haven't been put together simultaneously. Cantlay will get another spot to rebound at a test where he has provided two top-25 results in his career, and it does feel like a situation he should take advantage of with all facets of his game.

Patrick Reed ($9,000)

A triple bogey on Saturday at the Wyndham Championship took Patrick Reed out of the running to win the tournament, but a strong close on Sunday settled him into a share of ninth-place. Reed has provided three top-six results at TPC Boston over the last four years and brings the form to get the job done again at a venue that will reward his style of play.

Daniel Berger ($8,900), Tony Finau ($8,800)

It wouldn't shock me to see Daniel Berger and Tony Finau potentially go off as the two highest priced plays on the board. Options start to thin out quickly once we get under $7,500 in salary, and most builds will probably dictate a steadier distribution where the two Americans fall into a ton of lineups. I prefer Finau over Berger when deciding between the two, but I have both inside the top-15 of my model.

Tiger Woods ($8,700)

The expectations are always so high around Tiger Woods that anything outside of a top-five finish is considered a disappointment, but I thought there were a ton of signs of life from the 82-time PGA Tour winner in San Francisco. Woods showed that he is still one of the best iron players in the world, and it has just been his putting that has kept him down over his last few starts. The days where Tiger is owned by 50 percent of DFS players is a thing of the past, and he does provide some intriguing upside at around a 10 percent ownership projection.

Adam Scott ($8,400)

The lack of golf we have seen from Adam Scott gives us some value at his $8,400 price tag on DraftKings. For comparison sake, that total places him 18th in salary compared to the field, but his 40/1 outright number puts him a few points lower at 15th overall. That should show us that there is potentially some GPP appeal here for those that are looking for upside, but it is worth noting that he has struggled at the property since coming fourth in 2016.

Scottie Scheffler ($8,100)

Nothing about Scottie Scheffler's fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship should be considered a fluke. The 24-year-old is a premier ball-striker that can destroy a course off the tee, and the price jump in salary to over $8,000 should be considered a positive since it will keep some DFS players off of him.

Justin Rose ($8,000)

This narrative you are going to hear all week of Justin Rose being a standout at TPC Boston is valid to an extent after providing two consecutive top-10 results in his previous two attempts, but there is an ugly side to his record where he has only yielded one additional top-50 in his other seven tries since 2009. I'm willing to overlook the negative outputs in the past because of his recent course history, but it is important to note that extreme volatility could be there for the Englishman in Boston - especially when you consider the fact that he has posted three top-14 results to go along with four missed cuts since the restart. I'm all for taking some shots in GPPs if we can grab him at around five percent ownership, but there is no guarantee for what you are going to get.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Matthew Wolff ($7,800), Gary Woodland ($7,800) & Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

Matthew Wolff, Gary Woodland and Abraham Ancer are each technically showing up as having positive value on my model at their price points, but there is no doubt that most of the ownership totals will be leaking into these three. I am not technically running away from playing the group, but I would be careful when it comes to the style of build that I place them into for the week. It probably doesn't make sense to group the entire batch when constructing a GPP lineup, and I do think there are potential pivots available with Sungjae Im at $7,700 and Shane Lowry at $7,500. GPPs could be decided if you can choose correctly, but we are dealing with thin margins of separation.

Harold Varner III ($7,400)

One of the secondary points that will play out as the week goes on is the fight to get into the top-70 to qualify for the BMW Championship. Harold Varner III currently enters the week in 73rd place after positing his first top-10 result of the season, and he will need a decent showing in Boston if he wants to survive and advance. The American is inching closer to finally breaking through on tour, and while it most likely won't happen this week, his game has the potential to log his third straight top-30 finish.

Byeong Hun An ($7,300)

It is funny how players hit peaks and valleys when it comes to their public perception. Byeong Hun An is a prime example of that after being everyone's darling early in the year, but a string of missed cuts turned the South Korean into the butt of the joke because of his propensity to struggle with his putter. Two strong appearances in a row at the WGC and PGA Championship doesn't appear to have changed the narrative all that much, as Hun An is projected to enter the week at under five percent owned. We can harp on his putting and inability to close, but you aren't going to find his upside in many spots this low down the board.

Ryan Palmer ($7,300)

After three consecutive top-50 finishes at the Memorial (2nd), WGC (15th) and PGA Championship (43rd), Ryan Palmer enters the week under the radar once again at his $7,300 price tag. It is always scary when you emphasize weight onto around the green or bunker play because of the lack of consistency the 43-year-old has shown at times, but his overall ball-striking nature shouldn't be discounted at a test that will require skills both off the tee and with irons in hand.

Dylan Frittelli ($7,000)

It has been a hot run for Dylan Frittelli, who is posting strokes gained numbers nearly 40 ranking spots better across the board from his baseline production. That form has yielded four straight top-33 results, which includes three finishes inside the top-25. Frittelli's production hasn't gone unnoticed in the DFS world, but it does indicate he might be too cheaply priced on DraftKings.

Lanto Griffin ($6,700)

This isn't an original statistic that I uncovered and believe it was discovered by Rick Gehman of CBS Sports, but Lanto Griffin has had a propensity of achieving 10-times his value at an alarmingly high rate when priced under $7,000. His $6,500 salary at the PGA Championship generated 71 DK points, and it has been the story of his season that he tends to churn out production at a level that exceeds his price tag. Now, there obviously isn't meant to be a corollary placed here that Griffin is knowingly overperforming his cost, but what it should tell you is that DraftKings has consistently underpriced him in 2020.

Sepp Straka ($6,300)

Three finishes outside the top-60 mixed with three inside the top-20 are what we have gotten out of Sepp Straka since the Rocket Mortgage. That level of erraticness can be both positive and negative for GPP purposes, but he doesn't have to beat out as many players as he usually does to make the cut at the Northern Trust. The field will be starting with nearly 30 fewer players than a typical week, which could provide Straka a tad bit more consistency if we believe he still possesses his upside.

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