RADIO
Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Memorial DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Charles Schwab. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Memorial
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Muirfield Village
7,543 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
After COVID-19 gave us back-to-back events at Muirfield Village in 2020, the 2021 iteration should return some level of normalcy to the proceedings. It was a tale of two tapes here last season, as Collin Morikawa took down what should be considered the easier Workday test at 19-under par, and it was Jon Rahm that got the job done a week later at nine-under par for the Memorial tournament. The reason for this difference was something I noted in the prelude to last year's challenge, and I believe it can be chalked up to a few factors. First off, and perhaps most importantly, the course was watered down in week one to allow two weeks of golf and then dried up for the firey Memorial conclusion. Add this to the fact that Jack Nicklaus put his foot down, which resulted in a bloodbath in Dublin, Ohio, and you get a pretty good idea that things that week might not be as indicative for what we will see this go around. Don't get me wrong, Muirfield Village is still an extremely difficult course that will challenge all parts of a golfers game, but somewhere between 12-under and 15-under feels like a much more suitable projection.
As far as the course is concerned, nearly 150 yards has been added to the length from last year to this season, and fairways and greens were both replaced at the Nicklaus design. Thick rough will create a headache for golfers that can't find the short grass off the tee, but wide fairways do provide us a test that is eight percent easier in terms of hitting fairways. While accuracy doesn't seem like it will be a problem, GIR percentage has been hard to come by here in the past because of the smaller greens, and the 13 water hazards to go along with 73 bunkers (that are deep and long) only add to the trouble that will be lurking at each corner.
Par-five scoring will be a necessity for golfers who want to find success, and the ability to score between the par-four range of 450-500 yards also looks crucial, as seven holes fall within that distance. At the end of the day, some semblance of scoring on the key par-four and five ranges will help, and if we mix that with proximity over 150 yards and short game/bogey avoidance, we get a pretty decent idea about what might be needed to conquer the problematic test.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Muirfield Village | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 280 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 69% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 61% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 52% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.54 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 12/1 and is followed by Bryson DeChambeau at 14/1, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas at 16/1 and Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy at 17/1.
Key Stats
- Weighted Ball-Striking 20%
- Sand Save + ATG 17.5%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
- Weighted Proximity 125+ 15%
- Weighted Par-Four 12.5%
- Fast Bent Putting L50 10%
- Weighted Par-Three 7.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($11,300) - Why stop a good thing when it is working? We touted Jordan Spieth as the safest play in this region last week and will go back to the board with him at the Memorial. In fairness, the test probably isn't as ideal for him as we have seen in the past, but three top-13s in his last four tries should prove Muirfield Village is something he can handle. If you are looking for a second choice, I also like Collin Morikawa at ($10,400)
- Most Upside: Bryson DeChambeau ($10,900) - Mr. high ceiling/low floor, Bryson DeChambeau has shown the potential to unlock Muirfield Village and all her glory once before in 2018 and will get a chance to do so again in 2021 - this time a little under the radar. DeChambeau's current ownership projection places him outside of the top-30 players on the board, but his potential for victory is something worth diving a little more into before making your picks.
- Favorite GPP Play: Jon Rahm ($11,100) -The winner here last season, it feels like it is about time for Jon Rahm to get himself back to his old ways after skyrocketing the leaderboard on Sunday in his previous start at the PGA Championship. Rahm hasn't quite been firing on all cylinders mid-way through his campaign this season, but a more demanding test is always a reason to consider the Spaniard for GPP contests.
- Fade: Justin Thomas ($10,200)- Cash-Games - I am fine targeting his upside in GPP builds, but the volatility around Justin Thomas makes him a sizeable negative-EV proposition for me in cash-game lineups.
- Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm ($11,100)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Viktor Hovland ($9,900) - I didn't necessarily love what I saw out of Viktor Hovland during his last start at the PGA Championship, but the youngster is about as safe across the board when it comes to a statistical breakdown as you will find. Hovland ranks third during my two-year model in proximity from 125+ yards and checks out seventh in par-five birdie or better percentage.
- Most Upside: Xander Schauffele - ($9,700) - I was under an early assumption that we might see a reduced ownership version of Xander Schauffele at the Memorial after he burned his backers at the PGA Championship, but early returns have the American hovering as the fourth-highest projected player on Monday afternoon. It does make sense for gamers trying to pinpoint upside into their lineups, as Schauffele ranks as the number one golfer in my model in par-five scoring. I know the stigma around him not winning will limit his upside for some, but I think it allows us to acquire the 27-year-old at a more conducive going rate than we typically get on him for a given event.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($9,200) - I hate including a golfer that is nearly 20 percent and currently the highest projected player on the slate, but we have a section here in the $9,000 range where popularity is running wild. Most GPP contests likely will get decided by the popular choice that is chosen correctly, and it is difficult for me to ignore Finau's reduction in salary and the overall level of safety he possesses. Only Hovland, Schauffele and Finau grade as positive values for me in this range, making it a group I am either paying the chalk on or pivoting up or down on the pay scale.
- Fade: None -While I may not have a ton of values, I also don't have many egregious incongruities in pricing. Like Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay ($9,500) is a fade for me in cash games, but I will not be the slightest bit surprised if we see the American break out of his funk with a massive result.
- Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($9,700)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Joaquin Niemann ($8,800) - It is hard not to pick the guy that is currently leading the tour with 20 straight made cuts.
- Most Upside: Cameron Smith ($8,600) - It has been a horrible run for Cameron Smith at the Memorial, which is strange because there are some similarities in design between this and Augusta National. When I remove course history away from the projections entirely, Smith jumps to 11th in overall rank.
- Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($8,200) - I don't mind using Joaquin Niemann for this section either, but let's add a few more options to consider. Sungjae Im's ownership projection of under five percent makes him an intriguing target for those trying to pinpoint hidden upside, and his total driving rank of fourth in my model should only add to that possibility.
- Fade: Rickie Fowler ($8,000)
- Most Likely Winner: Joaquin Niemann ($8,800)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Emiliano Grillo ($7,700)
- Most Upside: Doug Ghim ($7,200)
- Favorite GPP Play: Matt Kuchar ($7,400)
- Fade: Chris Kirk ($7,300)
- Most Likely Winner: Emiliano Grillo ($7,700)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
- Safest Play: Kyle Stanley ($6,100) - Huge mispricing on both Stanley and Knox.
- Most Upside: Russell Knox ($6,100)
- Favorite GPP Play: Alex Noren ($6,800)
Fade: Cameron Champ ($6,700)
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