Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): 3M Open

July 22, 2020

Spencer Aguiar breaks down the DraftKings slate, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! After Jon Rahm's dazzling display of golf at Muirfield Village, we have a new number one in the world. Rahm's final score of nine-under par might have given him a three-shot victory, but it doesn't tell the complete story of just how dominating his performance was over four days. The Spaniard had a runaway lead for most of Saturday and Sunday, but it didn't come without a little distress down the stretch. A two-shot penalty mixed with some erratic play did close the gap for Ryan Palmer to have an outside chance during the final few holes, but we never quite got ourselves into a position where the tournament felt like it was up for grabs.

The next year on tour will be telling with seven majors currently slotted to be played, but Rahm's ascension to the top of the rankings does place him in a spot of power to take the next step with his game. We will have a much clearer picture one year from now when it comes to who has officially broken through during the grand slams, but Rahm's chances shouldn't be taken lightly.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - 3M Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

3M Open - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Twin Cities

7,481 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass 

Designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman in 2000, the venue has seen a few changes in recent years. The course was extended by over 300 yards over its typical Champions Tour layout to get prepared for last seasons PGA event, and the venue plays like a long Par-71 that will reward added distance.

While the winning score will most likely creep into the 20-under par range, the property does have a few defenses at its disposal. Fourteen of the 18 holes will feature water, and I'd expect the tour to utilize some of those barriers on the shorter par-fours that can be driveable on the right day. The water isn't enough to divert golfers or cause fear, but missing in the correct spots will come into play like any given week.

Tournaments such as the 3M are difficult to handicap because they sometimes can turn into putting contests, but the leaderboard last season seemed fair when assessing strokes gained as a whole. Off the tee, approach and total ball-striking carved out the majority of success that the top-20 players found, and strokes gained around the green almost played non-existent for the week. Some level of putting will always matter to an extent since we need to suss out who is actually scoring, but I'd be more focused on golfers who can create opportunities with their irons and let the chips fall from there.

 


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Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Brooks Koepka at 12/1, Tony Finau at 14/1, Tommy Fleetwood at 16/1 and Paul Casey at 25/1. Your defending champion, Matthew Wolff, comes in just outside that range at 28/1.

Key Stats

• Ball Striking 15%
• Strokes Gained Approach 15%
• Par-Five BoB Percentage 15%
• Driving Distance 15%
• Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
• Bob+Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
• Strokes Gained Off the Tee 12.5%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

It was a brutal display from Dustin Johnson at Muirfield Village - one that resulted in a second-to-last place showing for those that got in a full 36 holes. We discussed how last week's venue could provide the big-hitting American with some issues if he remained inconsistent with his irons, and Johnson fell right into that trap by losing 4.1 shots with his approach game. This week, TPC Twin Cities should provide him a course that will negate his around the green woes, and his distance off the tee will come heavily into play if he can avoid the copious amount of water surrounding the property. Johnson is the number one ranked player on my model for the event and should be in-store for a bounce-back effort.

Brooks Koepka ($11,200)

Brooks Koepka said on Saturday at the Memorial that, "nothing is improved" when asked about his knee that required surgery last year. That comment will have me out on the four-time major winner, even if his ownership percentage could rival five percent or less on the week. There are spots to be contrarian, but I am going to take Koepka at his word that something remains a problem. Frankly, $11,200 is too high of a price regardless of the situation, but the uncertainty will further dampen his outlook.

Tony Finau ($10,900)

TPC Twin Cities is an excellent setup for Tony Finau, but it doesn't mean I don't have my concerns. Is the price fair given the strength of the field? Sure. But I'm never going to feel comfortable rostering Finau at nearly $11,000 when he has continuously failed to get himself into the winner's circle. Add that to the fact that Finau is going to be one of your most popular players for the week at nearly 20 percent ownership, and I am not sure you get a fair payback on your investment. Finau is in play for a top-10 or 20 finish, but you will need more than that at this price point.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500)

We run into a similar issue with Tommy Fleetwood as we do Tony Finau, but the situation isn't quite as egregious for a few reasons. For starters, Fleetwood's $400 rebate in price does mean something at the end of the day, and I do believe we are looking at better win equity for the Englishman to get himself over the hump. This is an ideal venue for Fleetwood to possibly earn his first victory, and I don't have an issue adding him to my player pool.

Paul Casey ($10,100)

When we talk ball-strikers, Paul Casey will always be at or near the top of the list. His late blowup at Muirfield Village has subsided his price tag, but it doesn't appear to have stunted his ownership projection. The Englishman is going to be one of the most popular golfers on the board this week, but his safety level does make him worth a second look in all formats.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Bubba Watson ($9,900)

Bubba Watson quietly put together a brilliant display of golf at Muirfield Village. While his 32nd place result doesn't tell the whole story, Watson gained an astronomical 7.8 shots with his irons over the four days and continued his onslaught with his driver - gaining 2.9 strokes. That is now six of his last eight tournaments where the American has gained a minimum of 2.4 shots with his driver, but the results have remained stunted by his poor putter that has been negative for five straight starts. This week's venue doesn't require perfect putting to find success, which makes him a dangerous threat to take home the title if he can just be halfway decent on the greens.

Lucas Glover ($9,400)

I mentioned this last week, and the point remains the same: I'd be cautious in overexposing myself to Lucas Glover when making GPP builds. The stats add up, the price tag makes sense, but it is essential to remember that Lucas Glover doesn't win. In fact, Glover fails to provide many finishes inside of the top-10 either. If I had my choice, I would prefer using him in cash games for safety, but we even have some issues there with his lack of upside at $9,400. I don't want to bury Glover completely because he is second on my model, but we might be looking at his upside being right around his price point.

Doc Redman ($8,700)

We probably are getting marginal mispricing on Doc Redman in theory at $8,600. Part of that presumably stems from his missed cut at this venue last season, but it also will include last week's failed venture at Muirfield Village. Any model that you come across will love the American this week if we are only looking at this from a statistical-based perspective, but Redman's lack of par-five scoring does cause some concerns if he goes south in other areas. With all that being said, the price is reduced enough to consider the 22-year-old, and the upside is there to fly past his noted value.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,900)

I'm not so sure why we are receiving such a cheap price on Jhonattan Vegas. The 35-year-old had made his previous five weekends before his missed cut at the Workday Charity Open, which includes three successful outings since the restart. Vegas is a bomber off the tee who excels in ball striking and par-five scoring, and I would have had him priced in the same range as Russell Henley. I'll gladly take the $1,000-plus discount and believe Vegas can lead your GPP rosters to the promised land at under 10 percent.

Sepp Straka ($7,900)

Sepp Straka's volatility might make you want to reconsider using him as a cash-game pillar, but his GPP upside should not be ignored. The betting market has him priced as the 13th choice overall - eight spots better than his 21st place ranking on DraftKings. Somewhere in the middle of those two numbers would most likely be more proper, but it does show Straka is underpriced for DFS purposes.

Will Gordon ($7,700)

There is a lot to like about Will Gordon. Ranked inside the top-20 in strokes gained off the tee and driving distance, the American begins to look like extreme value when we pinpoint his first-place ranking compared to the field in overall birdie or better percentage, GIR percentage and proximity over 175 yards. Gordon showed flashes of his upside with his third-place finish at the Travelers Championship and should find TPC Twin Cities to suit his eye.

Sam Ryder ($7,300)

There is no doubt that Sam Ryder is receiving an ownership boost from his recent seventh-place result at the Workday Charity Open, but there is a relatively decent statistical consistency across the board for the American. Ryder ranks inside the top-60 in every stat I am attaching a weight to for this week's event, and while he isn't necessarily excelling in any one facet, all the positives should add more flexibility for him to make the weekend.

Aaron Wise ($7,100)

It has been a rough stretch for Aaron Wise, who has missed nine of his previous 12 cuts after posting a third-place finish at the Bermuda Championship in November of 2019. Wise is the sort of player who tends to find his best form at venues that allow him to use his expertise off the tee, and the comparatively open nature of TPC Twin Cities will provide him a chance to get back on track as a GPP-only play.

Adam Schenk ($6,900)

Adam Schenk isn't going to generate much interest from most, but his back-to-back top-39 finishes should have you take a second look. Schenk is a quality ball-striker that shines with his long irons, and his ability for both distance and accuracy off the tee will make him a threat at a soft venue. There is a reason why Schenk's odds to win the tournament are 16 spots higher than his overall DK price.

Josh Teater ($6,400), Shawn Stefani ($6,300)

Neither man is bringing a ton of form into Minnesota, but each player is possessing a higher made cut frequency than his pricing would indicate. Consider both to be volatile options in GPP contests, but Stefani's 15th place showing here last season does show that he can find success at the venue.

Ryan Brehm ($6,100)

The biggest disparity play from my model to DraftKings pricing has been crushing it in the last few weeks, and Ryan Brehm will look to keep the run going in Minnesota. We haven't seen much of Brehm over the past 10 weeks of actual play, but the 372nd ranked player in the world shouldn't be negatively impacted for his consecutive rounds of one-under par at the Rocket Mortgage that resulted in a missed cut. If we exclude that tournament from the record book, Brehm has made eight of his previous nine cuts on the PGA Tour. The 34-year-old finds the majority of his issues around the green and with his putter, and the hope is that his driving ability will shine through at an open venue.

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