RADIO
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I hope you all finished out the weekend with a bang and are itching to get back into some hoops. We have an enormous 11 game schedule tonight in the Main contest, so there's a lot to breakdown here.
Before I jump into the breakdowns, I just want to point out a few Vegas lines that are intriguing at the moment - there are three games with big over/under projections (over 215 points) that you should all have your eye on, especially for tournament stacks. Those three contests are the Suns at Sixers (227), Magic at Hornets (219) and the Hawks at Nets (218). Despite it being the lowest total of the three, Hawks at Nets looks the most intriguing for game stacking, as the spread there is just two points. The other two games feature spreads of eight points or more. That's not to say the other two games are to be avoided, but just be aware that they're more likely to be blowouts, which could hurt starters' minutes.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel on 12/4/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays on FanDuel. Let's get started. Good luck!
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DFS Guards to Consider
Kemba Walker - PG, vs ORL ($7,800)
I was hoping and praying my man Kemba would return tonight, because this is an excellent matchup to exploit. Walker missed the last two games with a shoulder contusion, but it's much less concerning than it sounds when you come to find it's not his shooting shoulder and that he was a full participant in Hornet's practice on Sunday. Let's start with game context - this is not only exploitable from a DVP perspective (Orlando ranks 30th against point guards and 28th in efficiency), but the game is projected for a much higher total in points and possessions than the Hornets normally operate with. Data has shown that extra possessions benefit guards the most, especially when their defensive matchups are soft. Kemba has produced a solid 1.01 fantasy points per minute this season, and I think the game context and his 26 Usage rate can push him past his price implied total this evening.
Dennis Schroder - PG, vs BKN ($8,400)
If you can stomach the inconsistency, I think Shroeder is a nice tournament pivot at the same price range as Kemba Walker. Schroeder has only flashed 5x value a few times this season, but we know he's capable of it and there might not be a better matchup for him. Brooklyn is terrible defensively, this game features a low spread and incredibly high total (3rd highest of the 11 games) and Schroeder not only plays a ton of minutes, but carries massive upside with his 31 Usage rate.
Other DFS Point Guards to Consider: Spencer Dinwiddie, Stephen Curry
Devin Booker - SG, at PHI ($7,000)
You absolutely have to get exposure to this game as it's likely to be the highest total. On the Philadelphia side, the decision of who (or how many) to roster is a little tricky, but on the Phoenix side you need to start with Booker. To be frank, Booker has 50+ point upside every time he takes the floor. Tonight? The 50+ point upside is more of a reality than usual, as the game flow here should lead to tons of shooting opportunities and it also happens to be the best position to attack the Sixers at - they currently rank 23rd in DVP versus shooting guards and 24th in efficiency. At this depressed price point, Booker is a lock-and-load for me in all formats.
Damyean Dotson - SG, at IND ($3,500)
Salary relief goes by the name of Daymean on Monday night. The Knicks two-guard, who can be rostered at the FanDuel minimum price, is expected to see 26 minutes tonight with a Usage rate right around 20. Now, the sample size is small, so projecting can be difficult, but we do know that Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. have already been ruled out tonight, which opens up a ton of offensive responsibility. The only concern here is that Dotson could draw the defense of Victor Oladipo, but at the minimum price, he doesn't need to do a whole lot to hit value.
Other DFS Shooting Guards to Consider: Tyreke Evans, E'Twaun Moore
DFS Forwards to Consider
LeBron James - SF, at CHI ($12,000)
James' price tag is quite expensive tonight, but I think he'll pay for his price and then some. The Bulls are an excellent opponent to target for DFS purposes, and the King of Ohio (and Ohio only) should be able to tear through a defense that is 19th in defense versus the position and rank 27th overall in defensive efficiency. For the season, James has been a model of efficiency on the court, pouring in 1.47 fantasy points per minute with a PER rating of over 31. He gets it done with a massive Usage rate (31), but he's also able to fill up the stat sheet in a number of ways, most namely with assists (he's had 12 in each of their past two games).
Darius Miller - SF, vs GSW ($3,700)
If you're looking for salary relief with a more reliable floor (see also: "safer") than, say, Daymean Dotson, look no further than Darius Miller tonight. In the last six games where Miller has seen 27+ minutes, he's been able to easily rack up fantasy points and has never failed to reach his price implied value in said games. Tonight, he projects for 30+ minutes again and this game projects for a high pace and total. The nice thing about Miller is there are less concerns of blowout potential consequences (seeing minutes reduced because of which) as he can see minutes with both the starting and second units. Miller isn't too heavily involved in the offense (15 Usage), but he sees enough looks to hit value and he's no stranger to pulling down 5+ boards and 2-3 assists.
Other DFS Small Forwards to Consider: Lance Stephenson, TJ Warren
Michael Beasley - PF, at IND ($5,000)
If you're all as sick as I am of roster-ing Taj Gibson in this spot as a value play (and hoping for a little extra in tournaments that never seems to arrive), I am here to tell you we finally have other options at this position and in this price range! Is Beasley cash game safe? I am leaning no, but at 0.86 fantasy points per minute, he only needs 25 minutes of his average production to hit value. Minutes are certainly hard to project, but most of Beasley's minutes projections I am finding are in the 28-32 range tonight. I personally prefer him in tournaments thanks to his volatility, but namely due to this 27 Usage projection. If shots are falling tonight, a 40+ point performance isn't out of the question and performances like that can put you right in the mix for taking down a GPP or two.
Other DFS Power Forwards to Consider: Thaddeus Young, LaMarcus Aldridge
DFS Centers to Consider
Marc Gasol - C, vs MIN ($8,800)
A date with the worst defensive center in the league that also happens to be on a back-to-back? Sign me up. We've sign Gasol's price rise recently (it was warranted), but I still think tonight's price is too low and I think he can be one of the top point-per-dollar producers on this slate. Gasol has pretty impressive numbers this season, producing more than 1.1 fantasy points per minute on the floor while carrying a massive 28 Usage rating and playing 33+ minutes a night. He's also done an excellent job of getting his teammates involved, and has less than four assists in a game only once since November 4th. His sturdy floor and higher than usual ceiling tonight put him in play in all formats.
Other DFS Centers to Consider: Enes Kanter, Dwight Howard
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