August 15, 2017

Kevin Luchansky's top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 8/15/17. Expert MLB DFS advice, sleepers & player recommendations for FanDuel and DraftKings.

Good morning and welcome to your first day on Giancarlo Stanton's planet Earth. After hitting his 43rd home run last night - his 21st in 33 games - I've come to the realization that this is his world and we're just living in it. Bow to your home run overlord.

On deck tonight, we have a 14 game Main slate beginning at 7:05 EDT. We've got a handful of five-digit salary pitchers and that after that it gets a bit murky. Plus we've got a Coors game on the slate and six teams with run projections north of five (and a bunch still without a projection as of this research/writing) - so there's much to breakdown.

Before we get into said breakdown, let's see what we can derive from the early Vegas lines that have been listed. From a run total projection perspective - helpful in determining which, if any, teams you'll target for stacks - the most attractive teams are the Rockies with a lofty 6.3 run projection, followed by the Dodgers (5.7), Red Sox (5.4), Braves (5.3), Tigers (5.2) and the Indians at 5.1 That's a healthy number of teams above five for a slate that includes a handful of upper-tier pitchers. As for moneyline favorites, it begins with the Dodgers (-350) which is a truly massive, massive line, followed by a steep drop-off to the Cubs (-176) and the Indians (-165).

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 8/15/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

Let's get to it, shall we?

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider

Madison Bumgarner - SP, SFG @ MIA (DK - $12,700, FD - $10,300)

After three straight starts of performing well above his price implied value, I think we can say Madison Bumgarner is "back". The big lefty mowed down three quality offenses in each of the aforementioned starts - the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and the Cubs - recording seven strikeouts in each and at his worst, just two earned runs. While this matchup with the Marlins isn't perfect, it's a relatively good one and does check a lot of boxes. For starters, this game is taking place in the very pitcher friendly confines of the Marlins' park and Miami is implied for just 3.6 runs. On top of that, despite having some pop, their projected lineup owns a collective .290 wOBA split against left-handed pitching over the last season, which isn't a number to fear, especially with someone as dominant as Bumgarner on the bump. In addition to that, he and his 9.2 K/9 should be able to rack up 7+ strikeouts against a lineup with a strikeout rate hovering near 27%.

Alex Wood - SP, CWS vs LAD (DK - $9,600, FD - $9,600)

If you're searching for a starter that wont break the bank and is backed by strong Vegas data, Alex Wood is your guy tonight. He's a bargain price - especially compared to where he was just 4-6 weeks ago - and he seems to have his subpar starts far away enough in the rear view mirror that he can be trusted in cash game play once again. That Vegas data I mentioned? Wood is an enormous -336 moneyline favorite tonight and the White Sox run projection is a paltry 2.8 - lowest on the slate by far. Over his last three starts, Wood has pitched pretty well, too, and does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard thanks in part to a 31% fly ball rate in that stretch. Wood can run into trouble once in a while with walks and high pitch counts, but the fact that the Sox strike out in nearly 29% of their at-bats versus lefties means whatever trouble he may get into, he should be able to erase with strikeouts.

Also Consider: Dinelson Lamet - SP, PHI vs SDP (DK - $8,500, FD - $8,300) - GPP play

DFS Infielders to Consider

Manny Pina - C, PIT vs MIL (DK - $3,500, FD - $2,600)

Pina qualifies as a bargain bin catcher with pretty strong power upside in this matchup. The big righty gets solid position in the order, owns a .333 wOBA and .183 ISO split, and enters the game having crushed value in two of his last three games. He's also been squaring up the ball very well, as he's got a 46% hard hit and a 60% fly ball rate in the past 15 days. His opponent, Ivan Nova, has been touched up quite a bit over his last few starts, allowing a .398 wOBA and a .275 ISO during that run.

Cody Bellinger - 1B, CWS vs LAD (DK - $5,400, FD - $4,400)

Bellinger has a dream matchup on paper here. The rookie slugger has owned right-handed pitching this season, to the tune of some beautiful, eye-popping splits - .420 wOBA, .389 ISO and a .668 slugging percentage. He enters the game on a heater, beating his price implied value in three of four while posting a 50% hard hit rate over his last 15 games. His over-matched opponent, Miguel Gonzalez, has been shelled in his past three starts, allowing an opponent wOBA of .373 and a .286 ISO.

Neil Walker - 2B, PIT vs MIL (DK - $4,500, FD - $3,100)

Nova looks like he's in a spot we can really pick on today with the Brewers bats. Walker enters this game with a hot bat, having torched value in the past three games he appeared in. Dating back to last year, he's posted some very impressive wOBA (.371) and ISO (.214) splits as well - each of which are top five statistics for the position on Tuesday night's slate.

Mike Moustakas - 3B, KCR @ OAK (DK - $4,900, FD - $4,200)

Moose has been one of the best power hitters this season - especially this month - and there isn't any reason to jump off the train now. The matchup tonight is nearly perfect on paper, save for it taking place in a pitcher's park. For starters, Moustakas absolutely crushes right-handed pitching, as showcased by these splits that date back to last year - .379 wOBA and a .310 ISO. Moustakas has also done a good job of squaring up the ball (34% HH rate last 15) and an even better job of getting it in the air with a 46% fly ball rate and an average batted ball distance of 234 feet. He'll square up against Chris Smith, who hasn't done a very good job of recording outs this season.

DFS Outfielders to Consider

Justin Upton - OF, DET @ TEX (DK - $5,000, FD - $3,900)

Upton worked his home run magic for us last night and I think he's got more damage on the agenda for this evening's event in Arlington. The slugging outfielder gets a park upgrade and a date with AJ Griffin, he who is not only not a good pitcher, but one that struggles mightily with right-handed hitters. In 28 innings of work against righty bats this season, Griffin has a 3.1 HR/9 and allowed a 41% hard hit rate. Upton's splits tell us he prefers lefties, but seeing as Griffin can't handle right-handed bats and Upton's .268 ISO split is still very strong, I feel good about him tonight.

Andrew Benintendi - OF, STL vs BOS (DK - $5,100, FD - $4,300)

Beni with the good hair, so hot right now. The kid is on an absolute tear and even with an elevated price, he's worth squeezing into your GPP lineups thanks to his double dong and/or multi-extra-base-hit capabilities. His Statcast data for the month of August is pretty incredible, highlighted by a 45% hard hit rate, a 51% fly ball rate an average batted ball distance the likes of which these eyes have no seen- 262 feet. He also owns splits north of .350 and .200 for wOBA and ISO, respectively, and matches up well with Mike Leake.

Brandon Moss - OF, KCR @ OAK (DK - $3,700, FD - $2,100)

Moss is still too boom-or-bust for cash games (unless you're desperate for a punt play), but I do like the matchup and the upside he brings to the table tonight and I'll be slotting him into a few tournament lineups. As I mentioned in the Moustakas write-up, Smith has been awful this season and the Royals are in an excellent spot to do some damage. Moss' hard hit rate has dropped recently but he's still done an excellent job of getting the ball in the air (66% fly ball rate) and all it takes is one pitch. For the past 12 months, Moss owns a .191 ISO split against right-handed pitching.

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