July 25, 2017

Kevin Luchansky top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 7/25/17. Expert MLB DFS advice, sleepers & player recommendations for FanDuel and DraftKings.

Good morning and welcome to the final Tuesday of the month. July really has flown by, huh? I blame it on the All-Star break. Anyway, we have all 30 teams in action at some point today with the Cardinals and Cubs starting things off in Wrigley at 2:20 EDT. While that creates a very welcome distraction while I'm stuck in my cubicle, it does eliminate them from the Main slate - so you won't see me writing about them here. We've still got a bevy of matchups to choose from - as for everyone else, they're in play under the lights.

As of this research, just a few Vegas lines have been posted and a handful of those are essentially meaningless and/or without a run projection listed. That said, there are a handful to consider (especially for those of you who like to make tournament stacks), starting with the teams with the highest projected run totals - Diamondbacks (5.6), Rangers (5.6), Nationals (5.3), Indians (5.1), Yankees (5.1) and the Marlins (5). As for the heaviest favorites on the moneyline (helpful in determining your cash game pitchers most especially), we start it off with the Dodgers at -177, followed by the Indians (-166), Yankees (-163), and the Diamondbacks at -152. After that, the lines aren't tipping too significantly in either direction. It's a good idea to keep an eye on the movement later in the day, as that can give you an indication of where the "sharp" money in Vegas is pouring in on.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/25/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Let's get to it, shall we? 

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider

Well, today isn't the most beautiful slate if cash games are your cup of tea. That feels weird to say when you have a guy like Madison Bumgarner on the hill, but he's been injured this season and since his return, he's failed to hit value in two tries and gave up two home runs in each of those starts. His opponent, the Pirates, don't make for the scariest of opponents, but they're no slouch either and have been heating up in the wake of Starling Marte's return.

Charlie Morton, SP, HOU @ PHI (DK - $8,800, FD - $8,600)

Morton looks like the crown jewel (a relative compliment) of the value tier and a versatile one at that, as he profiles as both a cash game and tournament type pitcher on tonight's slate. Morton has performed pretty well of late, beating his price implied value in three of his last four games and his one failure wasn't too bad of a performance either. In that stretch, he's allowed a very impressive hard hit rate of only 19% while inducing ground balls at a 54% clip. His exit velocity allowed of 84 miles per hour is excellent, as is his batted ball distance of only 188 feet. This is a negative park shift for him, but those numbers and the fact he's keeping his fly ball rate at or below 35% help to ease my concerns a bit. On top of all that, his strikeout numbers have been excellent. Thus far in 2017, he's posted a 10.1 K/9 and his matchup against this Philadelphia projected lineup is an attractive one thanks to their 26.5% strikeout rate and a pretty mediocre .299 wOBA.

Jon Gray - SP, COL @ STL (DK - $9,000, FD - $6,900)

If you're looking for a lesser-owned pitcher (tournament leverage!) and don't mind taking on some risk as a trade-in for strikeout upside, look to Jon Gray down in St. Louis. This season, Gray has started to flash some of the stuff that had him rated as such a high minor league prospect for years. He's prone to a blow up start every once in a while, but he's also doomed to pitching half of his games in the hitter's paradise that is  Coors Field. This season, he's sporting some pretty strong numbers overall, as he owns an impressive 0.8 HR/9 and a 9,9 K/9 that he pairs with a WHIP mark that still needs some work at 1.5. Over his last three starts, his StatCast data is pretty positive as well, as it displays only a 89 mile per hour average exit velocity and a fly ball rate of just 36%. As for his opponent, the Cardinals, they don't pack a lot of power but are a solid hitting team overall. That said, it looks like they'll be without stud leadoff man Matt Carpenter and they also have a projected lineup with a strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching this season. I'll definitely have a handful of Gray shares in large-field GPP's tonight.

Also Consider: Mike Clevinger, SP, CLE @ LAA (DK - $9,400, FD - $8,200) - cash games; Lance Lynn, SP, COL @ STL (DK - $7,500, FD - $7,800) - GPP/Salary relief 

DFS Infielders to Consider

Evan Gattis - C, HOU @ PHI (DK - $4,500, FD - $2,800)

That is one steal of a price on FanDuel and one that can actually be justified - and surpassed - on DraftKings. Gattis and his teammates get a ballpark upgrade tonight from a home run chasing perspective and while they face a pretty good pitcher in Nick Pivetta, he's young, hasn't figured it all out yet and is prone to blowing up (as we recently saw in Milwaukee). In fact, Pivetta has allowed an opponent wOBA and ISO over his last three starts of .395 and .333, respectively. As for Gattis, he has big fly potential, and his .379 wOBA and .254 ISO splits against right-handed pitching are just two of the many attractive things about this matchup.

Mike Napoli - 1B, MIA @ TEX (DK - $3,700, FD - $3,100)

Napoli has massive tournament upside tonight and he's packaged at a value-tier type price. If you're reaching to spend up on the most expensive level of pitching tonight in cash, or need a way to differentiate your lineup from the more obvious, popular plays, Napoli is your man. What's there to like? Let's start with the hitting environment, which is an excellent one. The park itself is great, and the hot, humid Texas air makes it even better. It's expected to be 99 degrees at the time of first pitch. As for the opponent, Dan Straily, well, let's say he's been less than good. In his last three starts, he's allowed a .434 wOBA and a .238 ISO. Napoli handles right-handed pitching well, particularly in the power department where he owns a .214 ISO split in the last 12 months. The icing on the cake is his 50% hard hit rate in the past 15 days.

Dee Gordon - 2B, MIA @ TEX (DK - $4,000, FD - $3,200)

I'm normally one to chase power at every position, but the options at second base tonight leave a lot to be desired. Yes, Roudned Odor has power in this matchup and yes, Jose Altuve has been on absolute fire and has upside as well. Problem is, those plays are obvious and leave us with little upside in rostering them and if you're reading this article you're none-the-wiser seeing an Odor or Altuve suggestion that our mothers knew was a good play. With all that in mind, I'm pivoting to Dee Gordon at second base. For starters, I love the team context here - Gordon has a super valuable spot at the top of this order and I like their chances to get to Cole Hamels and so does Vegas, seeing as no run projection has risen as much as Miami's currently has (from 4.4 at opening to 5.0, currently). Hamels, in his last three starts, has allowed opponent wOBA and ISO to be over .330 and .220, respectively. Another thing I like about Gordon and specifically this matchup is the stolen base opportunity. Gordon is averaging nearly half a steal per game and Hamels has been abysmal at limiting steals - dating back to 2013, base runners have stolen bases at a 77% success rate against him.

Freddie Freeman - 3B, ATL @ ARI (DK - $5,300, FD - $3,600)

This matchup has to be scary for Taijuan Walker. Freddie Freeman in one of the best run-producing stadiums in the league is nightmarish for pitchers, especially when said pitchers really struggle with left-handed batters, as Walker does. In addition to all there is to like about the stadium this game is being played in, I like the team context here as well. Atlanta's run projection is climbing and we know Walker is no stranger to games where he serves up a pair of home runs (if not more). For the past year, Freeman has been handling right-handed pitching as good as any, as he's posted a .487 wOBA and a .377 ISO.

Elvis Andrus - SS, MIA @ TEX (DK - $4,600, DK - $3,200)

I won't bore you with Dan Straily's splits again, but just remember that they're quite attractive and they put nearly an Texas hitter in play. I particularly like Andrus quite a bit, as his price is one that allows me some flexibility at other positions without sacrificing good lineup order value or good team context. Andrus has pretty strong splits against right-handed pitching for the last year (.362 wOBA, .183 ISO) and his marks in that respect are much higher than his marks against southpaws. Andrus is a reverse-splits guy - people forget that. Additionally, Statcast tells us Andrus has been unlucky over the past two weeks, which could cause people to overlook him today.

DFS Outfielders to Consider

Giancarlo Stanton - OF, MIA @ TEX (DK - $4,800, FD - $4,200)

The fact that FanDuel and DraftKings have only minimally raised Stanton's price tag during this mini fire run he's on now is a gift for you and me. Seriously, he can smash three, four or even five times his value tonight at this price. Hamels is quite hit-able and Stanton absolutely owns southpaws. For the past year, he's the proud owner of a .417 wOBA split and an equally impressive .348 ISO line. During this hot run he's been on, his hard hit rate s over 55% and his exit velocity is up at 94 miles per hour.

Matt Kemp - OF, ATL @ ARI (DK - $3,600, FD - $2,600)

I love this park upgrade and matchup for Kemp. Yes, Atlanta's new stadium is very offensively friendly, but it's a much bigger benefit to his left-handed hitting teammates than it is to him. Tonight, against Walker, Kemp is in a much more favorable situation and he's priced as a bargain play despite having big power upside. For the year, he's handled righties quite well, posting a .355 wOBA to go with a .213 ISO. Statcast shines a favorable light on Kemp as well, seeing as he's posted a 40% fly ball rate and a 27% line drive rate. He's squaring the ball up quite nicely.

J.D. Martinez - OF, ATL @ ARI (DK - $4,800, FD - $3,800)

Well, from the looks of the way he punished that baseball last night, I'd say the hand Martinez got hit by the pitch by is doing just fine. That's good news for us, because he's in a great spot tonight and he'll be a main feature of many of my lineups. Martinez' splits show us he favors southpaws, but the numbers he produces against right-handers are still massive and beat out the marks of many of his outfield peers. His wOBA and ISO splits for the past year are .395 and .263, respectively, and he's also got a hard hit rate of 38% in the past two weeks.

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