The Cut List (Week 10) - Time to Let Go?

November 10, 2020

Chris O'Reilly's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 10 of the season.

Week 9 was an all-around awful one for me from a fantasy/gambling perspective, so I'm a little ticked off as I settle in to write this week's edition of the Cut List. My starting QB in my primary home league, Justin Herbert, had a last-second touchdown taken off the board. Chase Edmonds logged 88 yards on 28 total touches (but hey, he's so much better than Kenyan Drake, right?). My desperation flex play of Keelan Cole Sr. reminded me why the phrase "desperation flex" exists in the first place (seriously, one catch?). Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues to fall short of what I feel like he could do if the Chiefs didn't insist on bombing the ball downfield for 60 minutes (although I can't blame them for that).

So yeah, I'm just about bordering on the level of frustration at which part of me wants to drop almost every player on my team out of sheer spite. But don't worry! I'm not going to let irrational anger cloud my judgment here. I just needed to vent a little.

Week 9 kept alive a couple of concerning trends in a pair of AFC backfields, drove home the point that a former week-winning fantasy defense is not what it once was, and highlighted just how much better George Kittle is than anyone else in the 49ers offense. How does it all shake out in terms of drops, holds, and increasingly uneasy ambivalence? Let's take a look. It's the Week 10 Cut List. As always, all roster percentages reflect ESPN.com leagues.

Droppable Players

Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders

45.3% rostered

The upside of Henry Ruggs is tough to ignore, but the consistency just hasn't been there. In Week 9, the Raiders found themselves in a shootout that came down to the last play on the last second, and Ruggs recorded zero catches on three targets. This isn't necessarily to say that anyone else among Raiders pass-catchers is all that reliable in fantasy outside of Darren Waller; the team leader in targets among WRs is Hunter Renfrow, who is averaging under five per game. But Ruggs is just barely seeing more targets per game than running back Josh Jacobs, who is not what you would consider a high-volume receiving back.

The Raiders are below league average in pass attempts per game at 32.25 (league average is 35.3), and a disproportionate amount of that volume is filtered through Waller (27.5% target share). Ruggs has been usable in fantasy lineups just once this season: a two-catch, 118-yard outing in which he happened to score a 72-yard touchdown. He's a fine dynasty hold, but how many more of those games can you realistically expect from him for the rest of this year in redraft?

Buffalo Bills D/ST

67.9% rostered

You're not often going to see a defense in this column, but I'm making a special exception this week for the Bills. It's time to stop riding the coattails of Buffalo's exceptional 2019 unit and start acknowledging what they are in 2020: an average defense at best. They're giving up 25.9 points per game and have been beatable both through the air and on the ground. Four of their nine opponents have scored at least 28 points against them; only the Jets (twice) have scored fewer than 21.

There is no reason the Bills should've been rostered in nearly 70% of leagues heading into a matchup with the highest-scoring team in the NFL in Seattle. Up next for Buffalo is Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, and I don't know what else you'd need to see from Arizona to want to avoid fantasy defenses facing them. The Bills have a penchant for forcing turnovers that helps mask their shortcomings elsewhere, but turnovers are a largely unpredictable facet of the game. Demote the Bills to streaming territory and revisit their potential in Week 15 or 16 when they play at Denver and at New England, respectively.

Jordan Reed / Ross Dwelley, San Francisco 49ers

24.5% rostered, 3.0% rostered

Every time a star player suffers an injury, we talk ourselves into the idea that his replacement(s) might develop some fantasy value in his absence. But have we ever considered the possibility that maybe the 49ers throw to George Kittle all the time specifically because they like him, and not just because they like incorporating the tight end position into their offense?

The 49ers went into Week 9 with a hilariously long list of pass-catchers unavailable due to injury or COVID. Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley were among the players they did have at their disposal, and the two tight ends combined for four catches and 55 yards on five targets. Dwelley accounted for nearly all of that production by himself thanks to one 36-yard reception that padded his 52-yard total. In a game the 49ers trailed by as many as 31 points and Nick Mullens attempted 35 passes, Kittle's fill-ins were virtually invisible except for one play. I understand how frustrating the TE position is in fantasy, but there are other players more worthy of being given a chance to let you down. I have no interest in Reed or Dwelley until I see an uptick in targets at the very least.

Tough Call

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

52.4% rostered

The best-case scenario for anyone who drafted T.Y. Hilton in 2020: Philip Rivers leans on him, giving him an above-average target share, weekly top-24 WR value and the likelihood of a few boom weeks.

The most likely scenario for anyone who drafted T.Y. Hilton in 2020: A 31-year-old wide receiver with a serviceable-but-no-longer-great Rivers at QB limits the potential for true consistency or weekly upside, but keeps Hilton on the board as a flex option most weeks with those boom games still very much a possibility.

The worst possible outcome for anyone who drafted T.Y. Hilton in 2020: Pretty much exactly what has happened. Up until Week 9, Hilton played in every one of the Colts' games. Michael Pittman Jr. missed three games due to injury and Parris Campbell has been out for the season since going down in Week 2, which would presumably have opened things up for Hilton to take on a commanding share of passing-game volume. Instead, he is averaging under six targets per game, has a lower yards-per-catch clip than tight end Mo Alie-Cox, and has scored zero touchdowns.

Making matters worse is that there is barely any promise in Indy's pass offense across the board going forward; the Colts' 10 touchdown passes on the year are better than only Washington, both New York teams, and the surprisingly awful Patriots. If there's any silver lining for Hilton's rest-of-season outlook, it's that he gets to face the Titans, Texans, and Raiders in five of his next six games. That said, one of those matchups with the Titans is this Thursday, meaning Hilton would need a rapid turnaround to get back on the field after his absence in Week 9. I'm not going to say you have to drop Hilton, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who does.

Hold For Now

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

85.7% rostered

It's never a good thing when you are out-snapped and out-touched by a guy who accumulates 18 rushing yards on nine carries, but that's exactly where Devin Singletary found himself in Week 9 behind Zack Moss. This marks not only the second straight game in which Moss was on the field for more of Buffalo's snaps than Singletary, but also the second straight game in which Moss converted at least one goal-to-go opportunity into a touchdown (three in the last two weeks). Singletary has just one rushing attempt inside the 10 in this span to Moss' five.

Singletary isn't a guy you can actively be looking to drop, but he's high on the list of "starting" running backs with very capped ceilings. He's averaging just over 13 touches per contest, is sporadically involved in the passing game, and has now had to watch Moss capitalize on goal-line carries in two consecutive weeks. Then there's the whole Josh Allen being-pretty-good-at-running-the-ball-himself thing to contend with. I'm holding onto Singletary as a bye-week or injury fill-in, but he's not cracking my starting lineup for any other reason until further notice.

Revisiting Last Week's Article

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

95.5% rostered

I included Jonathan Taylor in my "Hold For Now" discussion last week, and I still wouldn't drop him if I had him on my team (though I did successfully trade him before Week 9). I'm now officially worried about his rest-of-season potential in redraft leagues, however. Not only was he out-touched and out-snapped by Jordan Wilkins for the second week in a row, he also lost a fumble that the Ravens returned for a touchdown. The Colts Defense played well enough against Baltimore in Week 9 to keep the game winnable until late in the fourth quarter; that early fumble wound up being a pretty big part of the reason why the Colts lost.

Taylor did score a one-yard touchdown prior to the fumble, "salvaging" a fantasy performance that otherwise included 34 total yards on eight touches. That TD notwithstanding, it's been a troubling couple of weeks for the rookie. A costly turnover in a game with playoff implications and a sudden backup role behind a player most people didn't even have on their radar three weeks ago in Wilkins do not bode well for Taylor's fantasy value in the immediate future. I'm not going to advise dropping a healthy running back with a recent track record of a high-volume role, but I'm not thrilled about the idea of starting him this Thursday--even in what looks like a friendly matchup with the Titans.

Other Options To Consider Dropping

• JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco 49ers
• Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
• Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
• Keelan Cole Sr., Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
• Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
• Patrick Laird, Miami Dolphins
• Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
• Marvin Hall, Detroit Lions

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