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Eli Grabanski looks at Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton's value in dynasty leagues and analyzes how his fantasy football value could change in the upcoming 2020 season.
With the conclusion of Super Bowl LIV, football season is over for many people. But for anyone that plays in a dynasty fantasy football league, the season is never over. For the fantasy addicts out there, now is the time to start preparing.
In today's column, we will take a look at wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Two years ago, in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected Sutton 40th overall. In his rookie season, he finished with 42 receptions on 84 targets for 704 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Last year, he took a step forward to the tune of 72 receptions on 126 targets for 1,112 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
But a few changes may affect Courtland Sutton's value for next season. The Denver Broncos fired offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello and hired former Giants head coach Pat Shurmur to be their new offensive coordinator. Sophomore quarterback Drew Lock will be starting from the get-go for the Broncos. How will these moves affect Courtland Sutton? Let's take a look.
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Profile
Courtland Sutton
Team: Denver Broncos
College: Southern Methodist University (SMU)
Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6'4'', 216 pounds
2018 NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 40
The Drew Lock Effect
The Broncos drafted their potential QB of the future, Drew Lock, in the second round last year. He looked promising in his first five games, completing 100 of 156 passes (64.1%) for 1,020 yards (204.0 per game) and seven touchdowns. But before blindly assuming that Lock starting means good news for Sutton, it's important to look at their stats together from last year.
In Weeks 13-17 with Lock at the helm, Courtland Sutton had 22 receptions on 40 targets for 280 receiving yards (56.0 per game) and two touchdowns. With Joe Flacco or Brandon Allen starting, Sutton had 50 receptions on 86 targets for 832 yards (75.6 per game) and four touchdowns in 11 games. Sutton got a lot fewer yards with Lock starting, but ultimately his target share stayed the same between the three quarterbacks.
The lack of yardage could be due to factors such as Lock's injury at the start of the year, his lack of first-team reps to get chemistry with Sutton, or his inexperience. These factors should change with another year of experience and Lock as the clear starter entering the year, but if the chemistry never develops, Sutton's dynasty value will take a hit.
Offensive Philosophy Changes
Last season, the Broncos' offense was subpar, ranking 28th in points scored, 28th in offensive yards (298.6 per game), and 28th in passing yards (194.7 per game). Due to the lack of success on offense, the Broncos decided to fire offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello after just one year and hire a more experienced offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur. With this change, we can expect the Broncos to focus more on passing the ball this year, with Pat Shurmur offenses ranking in the top 10 of the NFL in passing attempts in five of the 11 years he's been an offensive coordinator or a head coach (with his offense ranking outside of the top 20 in passing attempts only twice). Considering Rich Scangarello's offense ranked 27th in the league in passing attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 32nd in passing touchdowns, we should expect a much better offense from the Broncos next season.
So we've established that the Broncos will likely be passing the ball more, but does that necessarily mean more targets for Courtland Sutton? He already had 126 targets last season (18th in the NFL), good for a 26.1% target share.
Pat Shurmur's scheme should keep Sutton's usage largely the same. In his last four full years as an offensive coordinator, his top pass-catcher has had at least 80 receptions and 125 targets. In Shurmur's offense, Sutton should maintain a workload similar to what he's received in the past.
Broncos Offseason Moves
The Broncos clearly lacked effective pass-catchers last season outside of Courtland Sutton, with rookie tight end Noah Fant being the only other player on the roster to have more than 400 receiving yards. This is a clear position of need for the Broncos and they could address it in the 2020 NFL draft, drafting a player like Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, or another talented receiver from the class. If the Broncos go the route of drafting a receiver in the first couple rounds, it could cap Courtland Sutton's upside.
They could also opt to address this position of need in free agency with veteran receivers such as A.J. Green, Randall Cobb, or Robby Anderson available. If they address the position this way, Sutton's dynasty value should stay the same since they would clearly be in a more complementary role and Sutton would still be the clear head honcho both now and in the future.
Conclusion
Sutton will likely have a bit more competition for targets next year, but the offense should also provide more passing opportunities and be more efficient in general. Unless you get a top-five pick in your rookie draft back for Sutton, you should not consider trading him. Another 1,000-yard receiving year is likely for the 24-year-old Sutton, making him a hold in dynasty leagues.
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