X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Correlations and DFS Stacks for Super Bowl LVIII

Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Thunder Dan Palyo analyzes the correlations between all relevant players for Kansas City and San Francisco and gives you his favorite ways to stack both sides for Super Bowl LVI in your DraftKings and FanDuel DFS showdown lineups.

The Super Bowl is finally just days away. The rematch of two heavyweights should make for a fantastic game and I'm going to attempt to give you some ideas for how to build your single-game DFS lineups for the big game.

I first attempted this type of research two years ago for the Bengals-Rams matchup. My goal is to try to find an edge for GPPs by identifying which players on teams positively correlate with each other and which of those don't. We have a full season of data to process with the main offensive players on both teams having played the majority of their teams' games. I went ahead and created a chart for each team that maps out the correlations and I attempted to identify some of the best two and three-player stacks.

I'll be focusing mainly on the DraftKings Showdown slate since we can't play defenses on FanDuel and they don't have the dynamic captain pricing either. I'm also going to include two correlated lineups to give you an idea of how to use the data to make some GPP builds. Let's have some fun with these builds and get our deep dive down the rabbit hole of correlation started!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

DFS Correlations: Super Bowl LVIII

Kansas City Chiefs

(click to enlarge)

One quick note about these numbers before we get too deep into the weeds. If you are not familiar with correlational coefficients (the very last column on the right of the charts), they can range from between -1 and 1, and the higher the number (or closer to 1.0) the more evidence for a strong correlation (as one number in the set goes up, the other is likely to increase as well). The closer the number is to -1, the more likely that the two data sets are negatively correlated (as one number goes up, the other number decreases).

In layman's terms, we are looking for statistical evidence that one player's production (or lack thereof) may be linked with another player's production.

The first thing that jumps out at me here is that Mahomes is positively correlated to all of his receiving options but not with his running back Isiah Pacheco. The trio of Mahomes-Pacheco-Rice (a traditional QB-RB1-WR1 stack) actually had the lowest average of the three combos that I calculated at just 45.9 total points per game. So if you are thinking of using Pacheco in lineups, it might make sense to fade Mahomes at his lofty salary and try to capture some of the Chiefs' passing production elsewhere.

The best option might be pairing Pacheco with Rice as those two had a fairly strong correlation of .38. And while Rice likely has a tougher matchup than TE Travis Kelce, he will most likely be the less-rostered option of the two. The Pacheco-Kelce does not correlate at all with this season's data, likely due to both players being somewhat touchdown-dependent for their scoring.

Mahomes definitely correlated more strongly with MVS than Justin Watson if you are looking to take a shot on a deep-ball connection. Both receivers are projected to be around 13-15% rostered with Watson just a few hundred bucks cheaper on DraftKings.

The defense-kicker correlation is there but is incredibly weak at just .07. Butker and the defense/special teams combined for 31 points twice this season but finished with just an average of 17 DK points per game. I don't think playing them both together and taking up two roster slots is a very compelling play.

All of the KC receivers are negatively correlated, so if I am building any 3-man KC stacks, I am not likely to have two wide receivers paired with Mahomes. The top 3-player combination this season was Mahomes-Rice-Kelce with 93.8 points in Week 7 with Mahomes-Pacheco-Kelce only one point behind in the same week.

It's an obvious play, but stacking Mahomes with just Kelce makes sense with their 0.57 correlation and incredible chemistry. They are two of the chalkiest plays on the board, but rostering them together will likely make your lineup more unique than playing either of them alone as their salaries together take up 40% of your salary cap even with neither player in the captain slot.

The last thing I will mention is that the RB1-defense and QB1-OPP QB1 correlations are both pretty strong negative correlations. The logic that the defense having a good game will lead to Pacheco following suit has not been true this season and neither has the "shootout" logic that suggests that when one QB is going off, the other one is likely putting up points, too. So something I will be doing a lot with my builds is avoiding playing both QBs together.

 

San Francisco 49ers

(click to enlarge)

The Niners were an offensive juggernaut this season other than Christian McCaffrey, you didn't know where the production was coming from on a week-to-week basis. I'm intrigued by the fact that when these two teams met four years ago it was the Niners who were coming into the game as the defensive stalwarts and KC as the offense that could not be stopped and this year, with all due respect to the Niners defense, it's really quite the opposite this time around.

Let's start with the best positive correlations. Brock Purdy's best pairing just might be Deebo Samuel who leads the way at 0.46. Not far behind is George Kittle with a 0.34 mark. Brandon Aiyuk is a distant third of the pass catchers at 0.15 and one look at his game log is a reminder of the type of rollercoaster of a season he had with wildly good results sporadically mixed in with average or below-average production.

The good news here is if you want to stack up Purdy with Deebo and Kittle, there's a neutral 0.03 relationship between Deebo and Kittle while the rest of Purdy's weapons all have negative correlations with each other. Purdy and McCaffrey have a neutral mark of 0.02 so they aren't an ideal solo stack, but we also have to consider grabbing as many raw points as possible, too. McCaffrey will carry the highest rostership of any player in showdown contests, but pairing him with anyone other than Purdy may not be wise as CMC's ceiling games have often led to relatively mediocre production from the rest of the Niners' studs.

The kicker-defense pairing for San Francisco shows a much stronger correlation at 0.28 than Kansas City's and the duo combined for 20+ DK points six different times this season. It was a boom/bust year, however, as we can see there were five weeks where they combined for fewer than 10 DK points and their overall average of 15.7 DK points was lower than Butker and the KC defense.

I'll end with a few last observations. Brock Purdy had very slight positive correlations with the opposing QB and WR1, but not enough to move me off my stance that I am avoiding "shootout" builds with both QBs. McCaffrey, like Pacheco, also had a negative correlation with his defense so that traditional pairing doesn't interest me much. One last pairing I included here was the Niners' defense with the opposing QB which carried the strongest negative correlation I observed at 0.73. That simply means you should not be playing Mahomes and the KC defense in the same lineup (not that you wanted to) as that combination is one of the least likely to both score well within the same game.

 

Conclusion

Sometimes you have to throw conventional wisdom and correlations out the window, I get it. We have a tight salary cap that is going to limit what we can build and only so many roster spots. Every lineup should tell a story of how you think the game is going to go, we shouldn't be randomly smashing plays in based on what fits. Give the optimizer a rest and build a few of these lineups by hand with a very specific outcome in mind.

I have been on the record for two weeks now that the Chiefs are going to win this game in a relatively low-scoring affair. So I will construct some of my builds towards that outcome, but if you are playing a lot of different lineups then you should be building with multiple outcomes in mind. Playing every angle is impossible and definitely not the best approach, but spreading out your exposures to different players is going to give you a better chance at one of those lineups ending up at the top of the standings, too.

 

Sample DFS lineups

Lineup 1: Chiefs win behind a big day from Kelce, McCaffrey still gets his, MVS catches a deep bomb

Lineup 2: Niners win behind a big passing day for Purdy who hits Kittle and Deebo for TDs, McCaffrey fade, Pacheco + Rice finish as top KC performers with Mahomes/Kelce fade.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nikola Jokić21 mins ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Hunter Brown28 mins ago

Registers Eight Strikeouts
Jonathan Kuminga32 mins ago

Back On Thursday Night
Christian Walker34 mins ago

Mashes Homer In Win
Freddie Freeman43 mins ago

Heading To Injured List
Miles Boykin2 hours ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson3 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield3 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum3 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes3 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton3 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole4 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes4 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins4 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin4 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey4 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev4 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun4 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker4 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck4 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco5 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair5 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez5 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo5 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk5 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu5 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams5 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley5 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride5 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith6 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero6 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao7 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells7 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt7 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida7 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera7 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
7 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy7 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys8 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs9 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints9 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III12 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson13 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes13 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley13 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl13 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard13 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann15 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake15 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin15 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe15 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers23 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
24 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals1 day ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell1 day ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1 day ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]