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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 20

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 20 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Alex Bregman (3B, HOU) - 98% contact rate last seven days (+12%)

Bregman had his 14-game hitting streak snapped on Sunday, followed by another 0-for-4 game. He then picked right back up where he left off on Tuesday by knocking two base hits, including a triple and an RBI. Remarkably, he went 11 straight games without a strikeout and has an 8:3 BB:K in the month of August. This is reminiscent of last year's late-season surge when he hit safely in 13 of 14 games through almost the exact same time frame. Perhaps Bregman is just a second-half player. That would be unfortunate for his keeper value, but at least you can rest assured that he can keep this up through September and make up for some of his disappointing returns in the first half.

Tim Beckham (1B/2B/3B/SS, BAL) - 85% contact rate last seven days (+16%)

If Bregman is hot, then Beckham is a campfire on the sun's surface. In two weeks with Baltimore, Beckham is hitting .500 with four homers, 10 RBI and 16 runs scored. Even throughout this breakout season which he began with Tampa Bay, Beckham hasn't been a model of plate discipline. He strikes out 30% of the time, which hasn't slowed down during his hot streak. That's telling of how well he's hitting the ball every other time at the plate, but beware of a .397 BABIP that will eventually come down to Earth.

Brian Goodwin (OF, WAS) - 88% contact rate last seven days (+11%)

With Bryce Harper hitting the DL, the division-leading Nats now look to Brian Goodwin to carry the offensive load down the stretch. OK, that may be a bit far-fetched, but with the staggering number of injured players from Washington's opening day lineup unavailable, Goodwin is playing a much more prominent role than the team ever imagined. He's been holding his own in the power categories all year (13 HR, 30 RBI in 251 at-bats), but his average has mostly hovered around .240, which kept his ownership rates low. With a .409 average this past week, he's becoming less of a liability in that category as well. Goodwin isn't the sexiest name on the waiver wire compared to some other prospects, but he may outproduce the majority of them to close the season.

Keon Broxton (OF, MIL) - 74% contact rate last seven days (+11%)

Normally this section is reserved for players on the rise, hence the subtitle. Broxton has raised his contact rate 11 points this week, but it still remains several points below the league average. He's hitting .176 in the past week with six K in 17 at-bats. He previously allayed concerns of a low batting average by posting superior walk rates last year in Milwaukee and throughout the minors. That has gone away this year, as his 8.7% BB% isn't helping out his OBP enough to compensate for his .220 average. Until he corrects his ridiculous 37.7% K%, Broxton isn't trustworthy enough to start on a regular basis.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) -  56% contact rate last seven days (-21%)

There is a good reason for Cervelli's recent struggles. He is day-to-day with a wrist issue that has apparently hampered him for a while. He isn't on the disabled list at the moment, but he is out of the lineup. There should be concern since it's the same hand which Cervelli had surgery on last year for a broken hamate bone. Cervelli isn't worth owning outside of really deep two-catcher leagues anyway. He is batting .249 with five homers and 31 RBI this season.

Lucas Duda (1B, TB)  58% contact rate last seven days (-17%)

Moving to Tampa hasn't done anything to boost Duda's fantasy value. He's jacked three homers in 16 games, but has only four RBI to show for it. Despite a 55-point jump in BABIP, his batting average has actually gone down in the last two weeks while his strikeout rate is up to 33%. You know what you're getting from Duda at this point - homers, mostly of the solo variety, and not much else.

Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL) - 62% contact rate last seven days (-11%)

Schoop has been residing in the risers category for a while, so it might be shocking to see him as a faller. Then again, regression is inevitable. Thanks to a huge second half performance, Schoop is batting a career-high .303 in spite of a 73% contact rate on the year. While Schoop already has established new high marks in the power categories and is on pace for .300-30-100, he will slow down at some point in September. His average hasn't suffered at all lately, but his low contact rate and high BABIP suggest it will eventually.

Jose Pirela (2B/OF, SD) -  65% contact rate last seven days (-11%)

One of the more surprising players to emerge as a .300 hitter and regular starter, Pirela has finally transferred his minor league success into Major League production. Pirela doesn't have overwhelming power or speed, so he'll need to keep up the average in order to maintain fantasy relevance. He does have 20 doubles to accompany eight homers, so points league owners may find him more appealing. Pirela failed hard in three previous auditions for a big-league roster spot, but he finished with an average over .300 in four of the last stops at Triple-A. He may be sacrificing some contact for power, but his all-fields approach has given him good results so far.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Verlander

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Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
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LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
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Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
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Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
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Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
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Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
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Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
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Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
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Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
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Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
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Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
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Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
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Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
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Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
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Dennis Schröder

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Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

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Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

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Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

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Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

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CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
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Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
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LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
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DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
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CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
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John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
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Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
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Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
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Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

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Corey Perry

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Kyle Busch

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Ricky Stenhouse Jr

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Michael McDowell

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Chase Elliott

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NASCAR

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Alex Bowman

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Ross Chastain

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Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

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CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
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Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

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Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

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Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
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CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
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Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
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Looks To Return To The Win Column
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