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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 20

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 20 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Alex Bregman (3B, HOU) - 98% contact rate last seven days (+12%)

Bregman had his 14-game hitting streak snapped on Sunday, followed by another 0-for-4 game. He then picked right back up where he left off on Tuesday by knocking two base hits, including a triple and an RBI. Remarkably, he went 11 straight games without a strikeout and has an 8:3 BB:K in the month of August. This is reminiscent of last year's late-season surge when he hit safely in 13 of 14 games through almost the exact same time frame. Perhaps Bregman is just a second-half player. That would be unfortunate for his keeper value, but at least you can rest assured that he can keep this up through September and make up for some of his disappointing returns in the first half.

Tim Beckham (1B/2B/3B/SS, BAL) - 85% contact rate last seven days (+16%)

If Bregman is hot, then Beckham is a campfire on the sun's surface. In two weeks with Baltimore, Beckham is hitting .500 with four homers, 10 RBI and 16 runs scored. Even throughout this breakout season which he began with Tampa Bay, Beckham hasn't been a model of plate discipline. He strikes out 30% of the time, which hasn't slowed down during his hot streak. That's telling of how well he's hitting the ball every other time at the plate, but beware of a .397 BABIP that will eventually come down to Earth.

Brian Goodwin (OF, WAS) - 88% contact rate last seven days (+11%)

With Bryce Harper hitting the DL, the division-leading Nats now look to Brian Goodwin to carry the offensive load down the stretch. OK, that may be a bit far-fetched, but with the staggering number of injured players from Washington's opening day lineup unavailable, Goodwin is playing a much more prominent role than the team ever imagined. He's been holding his own in the power categories all year (13 HR, 30 RBI in 251 at-bats), but his average has mostly hovered around .240, which kept his ownership rates low. With a .409 average this past week, he's becoming less of a liability in that category as well. Goodwin isn't the sexiest name on the waiver wire compared to some other prospects, but he may outproduce the majority of them to close the season.

Keon Broxton (OF, MIL) - 74% contact rate last seven days (+11%)

Normally this section is reserved for players on the rise, hence the subtitle. Broxton has raised his contact rate 11 points this week, but it still remains several points below the league average. He's hitting .176 in the past week with six K in 17 at-bats. He previously allayed concerns of a low batting average by posting superior walk rates last year in Milwaukee and throughout the minors. That has gone away this year, as his 8.7% BB% isn't helping out his OBP enough to compensate for his .220 average. Until he corrects his ridiculous 37.7% K%, Broxton isn't trustworthy enough to start on a regular basis.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) -  56% contact rate last seven days (-21%)

There is a good reason for Cervelli's recent struggles. He is day-to-day with a wrist issue that has apparently hampered him for a while. He isn't on the disabled list at the moment, but he is out of the lineup. There should be concern since it's the same hand which Cervelli had surgery on last year for a broken hamate bone. Cervelli isn't worth owning outside of really deep two-catcher leagues anyway. He is batting .249 with five homers and 31 RBI this season.

Lucas Duda (1B, TB)  58% contact rate last seven days (-17%)

Moving to Tampa hasn't done anything to boost Duda's fantasy value. He's jacked three homers in 16 games, but has only four RBI to show for it. Despite a 55-point jump in BABIP, his batting average has actually gone down in the last two weeks while his strikeout rate is up to 33%. You know what you're getting from Duda at this point - homers, mostly of the solo variety, and not much else.

Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL) - 62% contact rate last seven days (-11%)

Schoop has been residing in the risers category for a while, so it might be shocking to see him as a faller. Then again, regression is inevitable. Thanks to a huge second half performance, Schoop is batting a career-high .303 in spite of a 73% contact rate on the year. While Schoop already has established new high marks in the power categories and is on pace for .300-30-100, he will slow down at some point in September. His average hasn't suffered at all lately, but his low contact rate and high BABIP suggest it will eventually.

Jose Pirela (2B/OF, SD) -  65% contact rate last seven days (-11%)

One of the more surprising players to emerge as a .300 hitter and regular starter, Pirela has finally transferred his minor league success into Major League production. Pirela doesn't have overwhelming power or speed, so he'll need to keep up the average in order to maintain fantasy relevance. He does have 20 doubles to accompany eight homers, so points league owners may find him more appealing. Pirela failed hard in three previous auditions for a big-league roster spot, but he finished with an average over .300 in four of the last stops at Triple-A. He may be sacrificing some contact for power, but his all-fields approach has given him good results so far.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mitchell Robinson

Won't Have Minutes Restriction Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Ready to Face Bulls
Connor Brown

Considered Questionable for Saturday
Malik Monk

Won't Suit Up on Saturday
Gleyber Torres

Undergoes Sports-Hernia Surgery
Dylan Strome

Remains Out Friday
Elias Lindholm

to Miss Several Weeks
Donovan Mitchell

Unavailable For Friday's Matchup With Raptors
Jarrett Allen

Won't Play on Friday Night
Kaapo Kakko

Could Be an Option Saturday
Gustav Nyquist

Ruled Out for Saturday
Bo Bichette

Not Expecting to Need Offseason Knee Surgery
William Nylander

Considered a Game-Time Call for Saturday
Chris Kreider

Returning to Ducks Lineup Friday
Obi Toppin

Will Undergo Foot Surgery on Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Questionable For Matchup Versus Sacramento
Joel Embiid

To Remain On Minutes Restriction On Friday
Amen Thompson

Fourth-Year Option Picked Up on Friday
LaMelo Ball

Questionable For Saturday's Game
Nico Collins

Officially Cleared to Face Broncos on Sunday
Jalen Williams

Undergoes Follow-Up Procedure, Will Miss More Time
Brock Purdy

Questionable to Play, but Won't Start in Week 9
T.J. McConnell

Out of Action on Friday
Travis Hunter

ACL is Intact
Cleveland Cavaliers

Chris Livingston Reaches Two-Way Deal With Cleveland
Brandon Miller

Fourth-Year Option Picked Up on Friday
Mitchell Robinson

Returning To Starting Lineup On Friday
Alvin Kamara

Questionable for Week 9, Trending Toward Playing
Kevon Looney

Downgraded to Unavailable on Friday
George Springer

Back in Leadoff Spot for Game 6 of World Series
Anthony Davis

Not Expected To Play Saturday
Michael Penix Jr.

Not Listed on Injury Report For Week 9
Drake London

Practices in Full on Friday, Will Play in Week 9
Puka Nacua

Officially Cleared to Return in Week 9
D'Andre Swift

Ruled Out for Week 9 Due to Groin Injury
Rico Dowdle

Will "Start and Get the Bulk of the Carries" in Week 9
Isiah Pacheco

Ruled Out for Sunday
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Upgraded to Probable Ahead of Friday's Matchup
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful vs Bears
Marcus Smart

Participates in Shootaround, Likely to Play
Calvin Ridley

Officially Ruled Out for Week 9
Rhamondre Stevenson

Officially Ruled Out for Week 9
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Participates in Shootaround, Remains Questionable
Joe Flacco

Questionable to Play Against Bears
GG Jackson II

Added to Injury Report with Illness
Travis Hunter

to Miss the Rest of the Season?
Bryce Young

Good to Go for Week 9
Jayden Daniels

Will Start on Sunday Night Against Seattle
David Onama

Set For UFC Vegas 110 Main Event
Steve Garcia

Returns At UFC Vegas 110
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Set For Co-Main Event
Ante Delija

In Search For His Second UFC Win
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Chris Grier Out as Dolphins GM, Mike McDaniel Safe for Now
Themba Gorimbo

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Brian Thomas Jr.

Standing Out at Practice
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Looks To Return To The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Arizona State Quarterback Sam Leavitt Out for the Season
Travis Hunter

Will Be Placed on Injured Reserve After Suffering Knee Injury
Isaac Dulgarian

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
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Charles Radtke

Looks To Bounce Back
Allan Nascimento

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 110 Main Card
Cody Durden

In Dire Need Of Victory
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Says He'll Return in Week 9
Jason Dickinson

Aggravates Shoulder Injury Thursday
Gustav Nyquist

Sustains Injury in Thusday's Win
Sean Couturier

Injured Versus Predators
Elias Lindholm

Hurt Against Sabres
Seth Jarvis

Makes Early Exit Thursday
Brock Boeser

Exits Win Early
Jordan Harris

to Miss Two Months After Ankle Surgery
Ilya Mikheyev

a Game-Time Call Thursday
Samuel Ersson

Lands on Injured Reserve
Alexander Romanov

Returns to Action Thursday
Roope Hintz

Still Out Thursday
George Springer

"Strong Possibility" That George Springer Returns in Game 6 of World Series
Matt Duchene

Remains Sidelined Thursday
Martin Necas

Inks Eight-Year Extension With Avalanche
Mathew Barzal

Scratched on Thursday for Disciplinary Reasons
Bryce Miller

Not Expected to Need Elbow Surgery
Washington Nationals

Nationals Finalizing a Deal to Hire Blake Butera as Next Manager
CFB

Arch Manning Listed as Questionable for Vanderbilt Matchup
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Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
George Springer

Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
William Byron

Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

Advances to the Championship Round After Top-Five Finish
Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run
CFB

Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
CFB

Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
CFB

Arch Manning in Concussion Protocol, Misses Practice Monday
Christopher Bell

Eliminated From Championship 4 After a Too Conservative Season
Joey Logano

Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Last at Martinsville
Denny Hamlin

Don't Think Denny Hamlin's Engine Failure Affects his Championship Prospects
Ciryl Gane

Fight With Tom Aspinall Ends In No-Contest
Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall Vs. Ciryl Gane Ends in No-Contest
Virna Jandiroba

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Mackenzie Dern

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Mario Bautista

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Umar Nurmagomedov

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Alexander Volkov

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Azamat Murzakanov

Remains Undefeated
Chris Buescher

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Ryan Preece

is an Intriguing DFS Option For Martinsville
Daniel Suarez

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Austin Dillon

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Christopher Bell

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Joey Logano

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William Byron

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Ross Chastain

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Josh Berry

a Top Contender for DFS Place-Differential Points
Brad Keselowski

an Intriguing Martinsville Option
Shane Van Gisbergen

Now Competent on Ovals, but Don't Start Him Here
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well but Probably Won't Have Staying Power
Carson Hocevar

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