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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Khris Middleton

Will Not Play Tuesday
Kyshawn George

Is Questionable Against the 76ers
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Says he's Fine After Suffering Hip Contusion
Trey Murphy III

Will Return Tuesday Night
Omarion Hampton

Likely to Return in Week 14
Yves Missi

Uncertain to Play Tuesday Against the Timberwolves
Zion Williamson

Questionable Against Minnesota
Neemias Queta

Set to Return on Tuesday
Derrick White

Will Play Tuesday Against New York
Quentin Grimes

Downgraded to Questionable on Tuesday
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers "Hopeful" Brandon Aiyuk Will Play in 2025
Brayden Point

Without Timetable for Return
Jake Walman

Still Out Tuesday
Mason Appleton

Misses Tuesday's Contest
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Good to Go Tuesday
Conor Garland

Out on Tuesday
Petr Mrazek

Considered Day-to-Day
Tyson Foerster

Hurt in Monday's Loss
Trey Murphy III

May Skip Another Game Tuesday
Zion Williamson

Back in Pelicans Lineup Tuesday
Draymond Green

Probable for Tuesday Night
Jimmy Butler III

Questionable to Play Tuesday
Derrick White

Likely Available Tuesday
Paul George

Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Joel Embiid

Won't Play Against Wizards
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Brandon Miller

Unavailable on Monday
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Duncan Robinson

Absent Against Atlanta
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
Jalen Duren

Back in the Lineup on Monday Evening
Noah Clowney

Cleared to Play Versus Charlotte
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Active On Monday
Danila Yurov

Won't Play on Tuesday
Michael Porter Jr.

Back in Action on Monday
David Pastrnak

to Remain Out Tuesday
Adam Gaudette

Iffy for Monday
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Logan Cooley

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Josh Norris

Available Monday
Neal Pionk

Remains Out Monday
Jimmy Snuggerud

to Miss Six Weeks After Wrist Surgery
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Won't Open Kyler Murray's Practice Window This Week
Sauce Gardner

Not a Candidate to Go on Injured Reserve
Jayden Daniels

Not Cleared for Contact, Decision on Week 14 Status Delayed
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Return in Week 14
Tee Higgins

Still in the Concussion Protocol
Drake London

"has a Chance" to Play in Week 14
J.J. McCarthy

in Line to Start in Week 14?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
Sauce Gardner

Officially Week-to-Week with Strained Calf
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
VEG

Carter Hart Expected to Make Golden Knights Debut Tuesday
Pyotr Kochetkov

Remains Without Timeline For Return
Boone Jenner

Close to Returning
Lian Bichsel

Exits With Injury Sunday
Petr Mrazek

Injured in Sunday's Loss
Adam Fox

Placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract

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