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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

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Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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Jackson Merrill

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Joshua Palmer

Working Out on the Side at OTAs
Maxx Crosby

Raiders "Counting" on Maxx Crosby Being Ready for Training Camp
Kirk Cousins

the First Up in OTA Practice on Wednesday
Chicago Bulls

Jerry Stackhouse Emerges as Bulls Head-Coach Candidate
Cooper Flagg

Kon Knueppel Headline All-Rookie Team
De'Aaron Fox

is Ruled Out for Game 2 on Wednesday
Jiri Kulich

Aims to Return Next Season
Jeremy Lauzon

Not Expected to Play Wednesday
Brock Bowers

Klint Kubiak Calls Brock Bowers a "Football Robot From Heaven"
Mark Stone

Likely to Remain Out Wednesday
Scott Wedgewood

Starting Western Conference Finals for Avalanche
Sam Malinski

Set to Return Wednesday
Artturi Lehkonen

Expected to Play Wednesday Night
Cale Makar

Will Miss Game 1 Against Golden Knights
Malachi Fields

Appears Well-Positioned for Rookie Year Breakout in New York
Aaron Rodgers

Plans to Retire Following 2026 Season
Anthony Richardson Sr.

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DJ Giddens

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AJ Barner

Enters 2026 as a Dynasty Sell-High Candidate
Josh Jacobs

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Lincoln Riley Believes USC is Ready for Playoff Run
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Notre Dame-Stanford Rivalry Renewed Through 2028
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Ahmad Hardy Says He's "Back to the Road to Success"
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Texas Tech Graduate Judge Recuses Himself from Brendan Sorsby Case
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UCLA Tackle Jordan Davis Officially Eligible for 2026 Season
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Bret Bielema Supports Significant College Football Playoff Expansion
Michael Wilson

Cardinals Interested in Inking Michael Wilson to a Long-Term Extension
Kyle Williams

Bulks Up, Ready to Make Year 2 Leap
Deshaun Watson

the First QB Up During OTA Drills on Wednesday
Quinshon Judkins

Taking Part in 11-on-11 Drills
Xavier Legette

Fighting for His Future in Carolina?
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaguars Not Expected to Trade Brian Thomas Jr.
Rashod Bateman

Future in Baltimore is Bleak
Mark Andrews

Poised to Bounce Back in 2026?
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Is Tyrone Tracy Jr. a Sneaky Dynasty Buy?
Chimere Dike

Dynasty Managers Compelled to Hold Chimere Dike?
Michael Thorbjornsen

Brings High Upside to CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Luke List

Carrying Poor Form Into CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Tom Kim

Hoping to Build on Strong Myrtle Beach Finish
PGA

Sungjae Im Brings Upside to TPC Craig Ranch
Billy Horschel

Looking for Turnaround at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Adam Hadwin

Difficult to Trust at TPC Craig Ranch
Tony Finau

Looking for Consistency at TPC Craig Ranch
Luke Clanton

Searching for Form at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Aaron Rai

Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Wyndham Clark

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Si Woo Kim

Looks To Stay Hot at CJ Cup
James Harden

Struggles in Eastern Conference Finals Opener
Evan Mobley

Bags Second Consecutive Double-Double
Donovan Mitchell

Produces Top Two-Way Performance in Game 1 Loss
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Plays Key Role in Comeback Win
Mikal Bridges

Remains Efficient in Game 1 Against Cavaliers
Karl-Anthony Towns

Extends Double-Double Streak to Four Games
Jalen Brunson

Leads Knicks to Historic Comeback Win
Scottie Scheffler

to Defend CJ Cup Byron Nelson Title This Week
Jordan Spieth

Looking For Victory at TPC Craig Ranch
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Matti Schmid Looks to Keep Recent Momentum Going at TPC Craig Ranch
Brooks Koepka

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Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
Dean Wade

Returns to Starting Unit Tuesday
OG Anunoby

Starting on Tuesday
Tobias Harris

May Remain in Motown
Jalen Duren

Pistons Eager to Keep Jalen Duren
Chris Kirk

Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
Dallas Mavericks

Jason Kidd Fired as Mavericks Head Coach
De'Aaron Fox

Officially Listed as Questionable for Game 2 Against Thunder
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Joel Dahmen

is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
Pierceson Coody

is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
Gerrit Cole

to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
Drake Baldwin

Braves Place Drake Baldwin on Injured List With Oblique Strain
CFB

Ezavier Crowell has Immediate Opportunity at Alabama
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Mark Bowman a Day 1 Impact Player for USC?
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Bill Belichick Says Relationship with First North Carolina Team "Wasn't Great"
Alex Caruso

Erupts for 31 Points in Game 1 Loss to Spurs
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Kemario Taylor a Breakout Candidate at Quarterback
Jalen Williams

Productive in Comeback Game
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Trinidad Chambliss the Undisputed Top SEC Quarterback Entering 2026?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Records First Double-Double of Postseason
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Rocco Becht The "Unifier" of Penn State's Roster
Stephon Castle

Opens Conference Finals With Double-Double
Dylan Harper

Makes Outstanding Two-Way Impact in Game 1 Win
Mattias Samuelsson

Picks Up an Assist in Season-Ending Loss
Rasmus Dahlin

Nets Fourth Postseason Goal
Jakub Dobes

Records 37 Saves in Game 7 Win
Lane Hutson

Contributes Power-Play Assist in Game 7 Victory
Nick Suzuki

Extends Road Point Streak
Alex Newhook

Scores Series-Clincher in Overtime
Jackson Holliday

Orioles Reinstate Jackson Holliday From Injured List on Monday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Reinstate Ronald Acuna Jr. From Injured List on Monday
Jose Altuve

Astros Put Jose Altuve on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Set to Start Game 7
Corey Seager

Going on Injured List With Back Injury
Tage Thompson

Can Match Franchise Record With Another Multi-Point Game
Nick Suzuki

Seeks More Road Success Monday
Lane Hutson

Riding a Five-Game Assist Streak Into Game 7
Filip Gustavsson

Needs Offseason Surgery
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Monday Against Twins
Melquizael Costa

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Arnold Allen

Bounces Back
Daniel Santos

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
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Dohoo Choi Wins His Third Consecutive Fight
Malcolm Wellmaker

Suffers His Second Loss In A Row
Juan Diaz

Scores Second-Round Submission
Christian Edwards

Defeated At UFC Vegas 117
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Transfer Running Back Arnold Barnes Visiting Iowa State on Monday
Modestas Bukauskas

Gets Split-Decision Win
Jhostynxon Garcia

Expected to Join the Pirates on Tuesday
Quinn Hughes

Open to Signing Extension This Offseason
Joel Eriksson Ek

Misses Second Round Due to Heel Injury
Jonas Brodin

Sits Out Round 2 Due to Toe Injury
Colt Emerson

Mariners Promoting Top Prospect Colt Emerson to Major Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Fantastic First Season Continues With Two More Homers
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Blake Snell

to Undergo Elbow Surgery on Tuesday
Clay Holmes

Could Miss Around Three Months
Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
Corey Seager

Absent With Back Spasms on Saturday
Trevor Story

Hits the Injured List With Groin Injury
Blake Snell

Likely to Need Elbow Surgery
Kyle Schwarber

on a Heater, Hits Two More Homers to Take Major-League Lead
Clay Holmes

Suffers Fractured Fibula on Friday Night
CFB

Julian Sayin Looking To Build Off Of Strong Debut Season
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College GameDay Set for First Three Weeks
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Jeremiah Smith Aiming For Ohio State Receiving Records
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Keshaun Singleton Projects as Auburn's WR1
CFB

Jeremiah Cobb Impresses New Auburn Staff
CFB

Alberto Mendoza Very Likely to Start for Georgia Tech
CFB

Charles Woodson Jr. Commits to Michigan
Melquizael Costa

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Main Event
Arnold Allen

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 117
Daniel Santos

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Co-Main Event
MMA

Dohoo Choi Returns At UFC Vegas 117
Juan Diaz

Set To Make His UFC Debut
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Looks To Bounce Back
Christian Edwards

Set For His UFC Debut
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Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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