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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Herro

Making 2025 Campaign Debut on Monday
Caris LeVert

Jaden Ivey, Caris LeVert Available Versus Indiana
Kevin Love

Out Monday Versus Warriors
Grayson Allen

and Ryan Dunn Sidelined vs. Rockets
Lamar Jackson

Now Dealing With a Toe Injury
Anthony Davis

Downgraded on Monday Night
Lonzo Ball

Set to Suit Up Versus Toronto
Jake Walman

to Remain Out Tuesday
Draymond Green

Ruled Out With Foot Sprain
Sam Merrill

and Craig Porter Jr. Out Monday
RJ Barrett

Sidelined Versus Cleveland
Ridly Greig

Still Out Monday
De'Andre Hunter

Out Versus Raptors
Baker Mayfield

Dealing With Low-Grade Shoulder Sprain
Thomas Chabot

Misses Monday's Matchup
Mitchell Robinson

Under the Weather, Out Versus Brooklyn
Kirill Marchenko

Out Monday
Jarrett Allen

Out of Action Again on Monday
J.T. Miller

Unavailable Monday
Andrew Wiggins

Norman Powell Out on Monday Night
Brayden Point

Out Against Flyers
Darius Garland

Sidelined on Monday
Nikita Kucherov

Good to Go Monday
Chris Godwin

Buccaneers Plan to "Ramp Up" Chris Godwin's Usage
Colorado Rockies

Warren Schaeffer to Stick Around as Rockies Manager in 2026
Ashton Jeanty

Ankle Injury isn't Severe
Jayden Daniels

to Practice This Week, Considered a Long Shot for Week 13
C.J. Stroud

Remains in Concussion Protocol
Mike Evans

Could Return Before End of Regular Season
J.J. McCarthy

in Concussion Protocol
Tyrod Taylor

to Remain the Jets' Starting QB
Shedeur Sanders

to Make Another Start for Browns in Week 13
Tee Higgins

Won't Play on Thanksgiving
Joe Burrow

Bengals Expect Joe Burrow to Play on Thursday
Baker Mayfield

Not Being Ruled Out for Week 13
CFB

Chris Bell Out for Rivalry Matchup Against Kentucky
New York Giants

Giants Fire Defensive Coordinator Shane Bowen
Tee Higgins

in the Concussion Protocol
Scott Wedgewood

Gives Avalanche Second Consecutive Shutout
Macklin Celebrini

Makes History During Multi-Point Performance
Joey Daccord

Posts Shutout in Losing Effort
David Rittich

Keeps Kraken Quiet
Jesper Wallstedt

Picks Up Third Shutout of the Season
Rasmus Andersson

Extends Point Streak With Three Assists
Davante Adams

Catches Two Touchdowns in Sunday Night Win
Baker Mayfield

has Sprained Shoulder, Will Undergo MRI Monday
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Fire Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly
Ryan Helsley

Tigers Eyeing Ryan Helsley as a Starter
Quinshon Judkins

Salvages his Day With Two Trips to the End Zone
Alvin Kamara

Dealing With MCL Sprain, Timetable Unclear
Michael Wilson

has Double-Digit Catches, Over 100 Yards for Second Straight Week
Dan Hooker

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Marcus Semien

Shipped to the Mets on Sunday
Arman Tsarukyan

Gets Submission Win
Brandon Nimmo

Traded to Texas
Belal Muhammad

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Aaron Gordon

Sidelined 4-6 Weeks with Hamstring Strain
Belal Muhammad

Ian Machado Garry Outpoints Belal Muhammad
Alonzo Menifield

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Volkan Oezdemir

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jack Hermansson

Gets Knocked Out
Jack Hermansson

Myktybek Orolbai Knocks Out Jack Hermansson
Shamil Gaziev

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Shines At UFC Qatar
Dereck Lively II

Out with Foot Issue Again
Tagir Ulanbekov

Suffers Third-Round Submission Loss
Anthony Davis

Doubtful With Calf Strain Against Miami
Kyoji Horiguchi

Makes Triumphant UFC Return
MON

Alexandre Texier Joins Canadiens
Goga Bitadze

a Very Late Scratch on Sunday Night
Ryan Dunn

Ruled Out with Wrist Sprain
Jason Dickinson

Returns to Action Sunday
Elias Lindholm

Activated From Injured Reserve
Mikko Rantanen

Suspended for One Game
Neal Pionk

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Sunday
Donovan Clingan

Upgraded to Available vs. Thunder
Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Out Week-to-Week
Robert Williams III

Sidelined Against Thunder
Alexander Romanov

Out 5-6 Months Due to Shoulder Surgery
Sidney Crosby

Records 500th Multi-Point Game
Adolis García

Rangers Non-Tender Adolis Garcia on Friday
CFB

Beau Pribula Expected to Start Against Oklahoma
Dan Hooker

An Underdog At UFC Qatar
Arman Tsarukyan

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ian Machado Garry

A Favorite At UFC Qatar
Belal Muhammad

Looks To Bounce Back
Alonzo Menifield

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Volkan Oezdemir

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Myktybek Orolbai

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Jack Hermansson

Makes His Welterweight Debut
Kyoji Horiguchi

Returns To The UFC
Elly De La Cruz

Played Through Partially Torn Quad to End 2025
Tarik Skubal

Tigers "Doubtful" to Trade Tarik Skubal
Raisel Iglesias

Returning to the Braves on One-Year Deal
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Continue Fall Run at RSM Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Looking to Bounce Back at RSM Classic
Tom Hoge

Looking to Regain Form at RSM Classic
Joe Highsmith

Searching for Turnaround at RSM Classic
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Build on T11 Finish in Bermuda
Austin Eckroat

Searching for Momentum at RSM Classic
Joel Dahmen

Trying to Find Form at the RSM Classic
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful to Play Against Western Kentucky
Michael Thorbjornsen

Hopes to End 2025 Campaign With Another Solid Finish
Andrew Novak

Looks to End 2025 Season on High Note at RSM Classic
Harry Higgs

Teetering for PGA Tour Card in 2026
PGA

Nico Echavarria has the Potential to Contend at the RSM Classic
Sam Stevens

Finishing Out Year in Georgia
Seamus Power

Playing Better at the Right Time
Beau Hossler

Roller Coaster Comes to Saint Simons Island
Quade Cummins

The Time is Now for Quade Cummins in Georgia
Austin Cook

Needs a Win at the RSM Classic
Cameron Champ

on the PGA Tour Card Bubble
Grayson Rodriguez

Shipped to Angels
Taylor Ward

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward From Angels
Shota Imanaga

Accepts Cubs Qualifying Offer
Brandon Woodruff

Returning to Milwaukee in 2026
Denny McCarthy

Looking For Another Solid Finish at RSM Classic
Si Woo Kim

Looking To Use Current Momentum to Flip Script at RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Good Bounce-Back Candidate at RSM Classic
Harris English

Making 14th Start at This Week's RSM Classic
Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer

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