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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 14

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 92% contact rate last seven days (+19%)

Myers started off blazing hot, but the last several weeks left him high and dry when All-Star selections were made. Being overlooked in favor of Brad Hand to represent your team should be motivation enough for Myers and it might just be working. The average hasn't jumped up just yet, but Myers is having fewer hitless games and taking more walks. Unlike last year, the Padres won't be selling off their entire starting lineup around him at the deadline, so a second half collapse is unlikely. Keep the faith in this young stud.

Michael Taylor (OF, WAS) 83contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Another injury further secures Taylor's starting job in Washington. We already know about Taylor's power/speed combination (12 HR/9 SB this year), but he's finally not hurting his owners in the averages. Taylor is batting .281, although that's mainly due to an elevated .375 BABIP. The good news is that since Trea Turner went out, Taylor has been moved up to second in the lineup, which should increase his run-scoring even further. This seems like a good time to add him if he's available.

Russell Martin (C/3B, TOR) 92contact rate last seven days (+14%)

Martin's average hasn't moved from its current .218 mark despite increased contact over the past week. To be honest, you shouldn't have expected anything higher than .255 from him anyway. As a backstop, power is the key to his fantasy value, although he hasn't produced much in that category either. If you want to point to an increased 17.2% BB% and a low .235 BABIP to say that he could still improve, that's fine. It still won't be enough to make him mixed-league worthy as a 34-year-old catcher on a mediocre team.

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 91% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Bell still seems hell-bent on pulling the ball to sacrifice contact for power. Maybe that's because all offseason people kept asking whether he had enough power to be an everyday first baseman. He's certainly delivering in that regard, jacking 15 homers and driving in 38 already, but he's hitting a paltry .227. His plate discipline is actually very good (0.56 BB/K), but he's hitting the ball on the ground 52% of the time. Chances are he will adjust his approach enough that the power will decrease while average will increase accordingly. He's too good a hitter not to figure things out, but it may extend beyond his rookie season before that happens.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (1B, TEX) 33% contact rate last seven days (-26%)

To say that Gallo swings and misses quite a bit is an understatement, but we need to look hard and long at what's been happening lately. He's got one hit in the past week and 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. His average has gone from bad to worse as the season progresses, starting at .213 in April, down to .202 in May and then .162 in June. 21 home runs in half a season is nothing to sneeze at, but there comes a point where the damage he's doing to your average outweighs the power. That's especially true with the rate that balls are leaving the yard, making HR more easily replaceable on the waiver wire. The Rangers' poor record could work in Gallo's favor if they keep falling out of contention, but he could still see his playing time reduced if he doesn't turn things around.

Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) 53% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

That 53% contact rate has been parlayed into a .368 average over the past week, so this shouldn't be read into. Unlike Gallo, Duda is a case of a slugger that is making the most out of his limited contact. Most encouraging is that he's making a ton of hard contact (45.6%), which also indicates that he is healthy. Duda is on pace to match his career high of 30 HR, although 92 RBI seems highly unlikely given the Mets' offensive woes. He is right around his career average of .246 (currently batting .249), but at least that's something you can live with when looking for power.

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) 55% contact rate last seven days (-15%)

Cruz is having another solid season, even if it isn't one of his best. He's far off the 40-HR mark that he's reached the last three seasons, but a slash line of .286/.369/.500 is still top notch. Cruz is currently boasting the second-highest BB/K rate of his career (0.57) and striking out less than he has since 2010, so don't read into this recent mini-slump at all.

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) 54% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Reynolds may not eke out an All-Star bid, although he surely has a strong case for deserving it. One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, Reynolds is still matching last year's career-best .282 batting average, but has managed to resurrect his power along with it. Will it keep up in the second half? I won't pretend to know the answer to that question, but I can say that his average fell 52 points from May to June and he was hitless in his first 12 AB of July until a pair of singles on Tuesday. He appears to be a sell-high candidate based on track record, but I'm not expecting a huge decline considering how well he's taken to Colorado and the surrounding cast he has.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zack Wheeler

Could be Ready for Opening Day in 2026
Kevin Porter Jr.

Out at Least Two Games
Mitchell Robinson

Out Again on Friday
Josh Hart

Questionable Versus Boston
Karl-Anthony Towns

Back on the Injury Report for Friday
William Contreras

Could Need Finger Surgery
Aaron Jones Sr.

Officially Active Versus Chargers
Morgan Rielly

Questionable for Friday
NYI

Max Shabanov Out Against Red Wings
Morgan Barron

Available Thursday
Mason Marchment

a Game-Time Decision Thursday
Jonathan Marchessault

Won't Play Against Canucks
Matt Duchene

Sits Out Second Consecutive Game
Kirby Dach

Returns to Canadiens Lineup
Hampus Lindholm

a Game-Time Call Thursday
Luguentz Dort

Will Be Available Thursday Night
Cason Wallace

Will Not Play Thursday vs. the Pacers
De'Andre Hunter

Moving Well; Remains Uncertain for Friday
Portland Trail Blazers

Tiago Splitter Will be the Interim Head Coach of the Trail Blazers
Al Horford

Will Come Off the Bench on Thursday
Yves Missi

Will Be Questionable Friday vs. the Spurs
Aaron Jones Sr.

Activated, Likely to Play vs. Chargers
Terry Rozier

Chauncey Billups Arrested in Gambling Investigation
Moses Moody

Out on Thursday
Al Horford

to Rest on Friday
T.J. McConnell

Remains Unavailable Thursday
Isaiah Joe

Misses Thursday's Action
Cason Wallace

Questionable for Finals Rematch
Jalen Williams

Remains Out Thursday
Patrick Kane

to Miss Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Nikita Kucherov

Set to Return Against Blackhawks
Brock Boeser

Available Thursday
Dawson Mercer

Records Two Assists Against Wild
Jack Quinn

Tallies Three Points in Wednesday's Win
Jason Zucker

Exits With Injury Wednesday
CFB

Utah QB Devon Dampier Listed as Questionable on Big 12 Injury Report
San Francisco Giants

Tony Vitello Named New Manager of the Giants
Anthony Edwards

Active Against Trail Blazers
Grayson Allen

Active for Suns’ Opening Night Game
Kevin Porter Jr.

Won't Return on Wednesday Evening
Anthony Edwards

a Game-Time Decision for Wednesday
Alexander Romanov

Expected to Miss Two More Games
Pierre Engvall

Ruled Out for the Season
Adin Hill

Out Week-to-Week
Patrik Laine

Sits Out Another Game Wednesday
Marco Rossi

Available Wednesday Night
Cody Glass

Out on Wednesday
Stefan Noesen

Makes Season Debut Wednesday
Jaylen Waddle

Dolphins Don't Have Plans to Trade Jaylen Waddle
Francisco Lindor

has Elbow Surgery, Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Aaron Jones Sr.

Considered Questionable to Play on Thursday
PGA

Alex Noren is a Smash Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Mike Evans

Could be Back in Under Eight Weeks
Bucky Irving

Will Not Play in Week 8
Jayden Daniels

Will Not Play on Monday Night Against Chiefs
Darren Waller

Dolphins Place Darren Waller on Injured Reserve
Maverick McNealy

Look Out For Maverick McNealy This Week in Utah
Justin Lower

Unlikely to Flip The Script at Bank of Utah Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Looking for Repeat Performance in Utah
CFB

Behren Morton Will be Listed as Questionable on Wednesday
Max McGreevy

a Longer Shot to Contend in Utah
Jackson Suber

on the Bubble for the PGA in 2026
Greyson Sigg

Improving at the Right Time This Fall
Seamus Power

Hopes to Make More Birdies This Week
Patton Kizzire

May Struggle Once Again in Utah
Beau Hossler

Up and Down Heading to Bank of Utah Championship
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Find the Weekend in Utah
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Enjoying the Fall Golf Season
Tom Hoge

Sputtering into Bank of Utah Championship
Sahith Theegala

On the Upswing Heading into Utah
Andrew Putnam

Looks to Find Form in Utah
Matt McCarty

Looks to Defend Title in Utah
Ben Kohles

a Strong Value Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Max Homa

Trending Up Entering the Bank of Utah Championship
Nick Dunlap

Searching for Spark at Bank of Utah Championship
Quade Cummins

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of Bank of Utah Championship
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Won't Trade Maxx Crosby
Jason Day

Making a Spot Start at Bank of Utah Championship
Los Angeles Angels

Kurt Suzuki to be the Angels' Next Manager
Bo Bichette

Plans to be Ready for World Series
Tyrod Taylor

Aaron Glenn "Moving Toward" Naming Tyrod Taylor the Starting QB
Zach Charbonnet

Finds the End Zone Twice on Monday Night
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Continues Elite Production
Chris Godwin

Bucky Irving May Not Play This Week
Michael Penix Jr.

Expected to Be "Good to Go" for Sunday
Nico Collins

Ruled Out Late on Monday Night With Concussion
Nico Collins

Suffers Head Injury on Monday Night
Jahmyr Gibbs

Blows Up For 218 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns in Win
Mike Evans

to Miss Most of the Year With Broken Clavicle
Brandon Woodruff

Expects to Be Ready for Opening Day
Mike Evans

Ruled Out Monday With Concussion, Shoulder Injury
Mike Evans

Making his Return in Primetime Against Detroit
Emeka Egbuka

Officially Active on Monday Night
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Suffers His First UFC Loss
Brendan Allen

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kevin Holland

Drops Decision
Mike Malott

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Marlon Vera

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
Aiemann Zahabi

Gets A Razor-Thin Split Decision Win
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Manon Fiorot

Gets Back In The Win Column
Davey Grant

Suffers Submission Loss
Charles Jourdain

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Frevola

Gets Dominated At UFC Vancouver
Matt Frevola

Kyle Nelson Dominates Matt Frevola
George Springer

Returns to Lineup for Game 6 of ALCS
CFB

Colorado State Fires Head Coach Jay Norvell After Four Seasons
CFB

Florida Fires Head Coach Billy Napier After Four Years
Chase Elliott

Can Chase Elliott Deliver Another Clutch Win to Make Championship 4?
William Byron

Seeks First Win at Talladega to Overcome Las Vegas Crash
Chase Briscoe

Likely to Finish Worse Than he Starts
Kyle Larson

Despite No Wins on Drafting Tracks, Kyle Larson is Improving
Tyler Reddick

Despite Winning at Talladega, Tyler Reddick's Drafting Record Is Not So Hot
Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Excellent Crash Avoidance Could Reap Dividends at Talladega
Ty Gibbs

If Ty Gibbs' Team Executes a Better Strategy, he Could Win at Talladega
Daniel Suarez

Hopes for Clutch Talladega Win to Remain in the NASCAR Cup Series
Josh Berry

Might Contend at Talladega
Austin Dillon

Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins

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