RADIO
Contact rate risers and fallers for Week 6 based on RotoBaller's premium tool. Ben Rolfe identifies offensive players who have started the season either strongly or poorly and discusses whether it is time for any action.
Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 6! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.
Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.
Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.
Contact Rate Risers
Data current as of 5/8/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.
Steven Duggar (OF, SF)
87% contact rate last seven days (+16%)
Duggar is off to a fascinating start for the Giants this season. The young Giants hitter already has three home runs this season and has supported that with a steal and a .265 batting average in the first month and bit of the season. Interestingly this strong start has come despite his season average for contact rate being slightly down on the numbers we saw last year. The sample size is extremely small so there is nothing much to read into either number at this stage. However, to see all of his contact numbers in a similar ballpark to last year is a good indication that Duggar is what we thought he would be coming into the season, at least in terms of contact profile. Interestingly his K% is slightly down this season, despite having a worse O-Contact% than his debut season.
Two elements that stand out so far are his hard-hit rate and his stolen base success rate. His hard-hit rate is significantly up on last seasons numbers, which is likely fuelling his current 13.7% HR/FB rate. However, his barrel% and exit velocity numbers are close to identical to last season, suggesting that Duggar is not suddenly about to become a 20-plus home run hitter. On the stolen base front, he is currently 1-for-4, despite ranking in the 85th percentile for sprint speed. The positive is that Duggar has already attempted four stolen bases and the speed hopefully means that success rate will come around as the season progresses. In deeper leagues, Duggar could be a useful contributor of double digit power and stolen bases, with a batting average that is not going to harm you. He may be an interesting pickup this week, especially after the recent boost in contact rate.
Joey Gallo (OF, TEX)
73% contact rate last seven days (+14%)
What is going on with Joey Gallo?! His batting average is up at a head-spinning .269, despite a strikeout rate of 33.6%. That is thanks in large part to a hard hit rate, exit velocity and barrel% which places him in the top 1% of the majors right now. In addition, Gallo is walking in nearly 20% of his PA and currently owns a .412 OBP. All of this comes despite having a 2019 contact rate (60.4%) below his 2018 number (61.7%). The major difference in Gallo's numbers is due to his approach at the plate. He is still making contact within the zone at the same pace he always has but Gallo is being much more selective on pitches outside the zone.
During his career, Gallo has never had a O-Swing% below 30%, but this season that number is down to 25.5%. In fact, Gallo is just generally being more selective, swinging at just 40% of all pitches he has seen. That approach is clearly treating Gallo well, and with 11 home runs already this season it does not appear to be affecting his power either. The natural expectation for Gallo would be that there is regression coming, but his additional selectivity over pitches suggest this improved average could be here to stay. It may not remain as high as it currently is, but there is a good chance it is well above his career .209 batting average.
Avisail Garcia (OF, TB)
83% contact rate last seven days (+11%)
Garcia is becoming exactly what I hoped he would be able to become this season with the Rays. The 27-year-old slugger has five home runs, two stolen bases and a .287 batting average so far in 2019. Playing time is still an issue for Garcia, but when he has been in the lineup the results have so far been impressive. Part of the reason for the success so far has been a career-high hard-hit rate, which is up nearly 5% from any other time in his career. That increase has come off of his soft hit rate and has helped drive an impressive BABIP.
The interesting thing is that this success has come despite a season-long contact rate 5% below his career average and a swinging strike rate 2% higher than career average. You can look at those numbers in one of two ways, either that his contact rate should see some positive regression back to the mean and he continues to be effective, or that the swinging strike rate catches up to him and we see a cold stretch. Either way, right now Garcia is hot and if you play in daily leagues, where you can mix and match when he is in the lineup he is a valuable commodity to have. However, the potential that we could see a cold streak just around the corner should mean that fantasy owners temper expectations, and perhaps even look to sell-high if the opportunity arose in deeper leagues.
Contact Rate Fallers
Data current as of 5/8/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.
Trey Mancini (1B/OF, BAL)
53% contact rate last seven days (-21%)
Mancini has been on fire to start this season, with a .326 batting average and six home runs already in 2019. However, his contact rate in the last week has dipped, as he has been recovering from a HBP, which saw him miss time at the end of April. Mancini's increase in success this season is largely thanks to a change in approach from the Orioles slugger.
His contact profile has shown little variation from previous seasons, but his batted ball success has varied massively. Mancini has dropped his GB% by a whopping 15%, replacing that with a 7% increase in both LD% and FB%. His launch angle has changed from an average of 5.4 degrees last season to 9.8% this season. After years of seeing other hitters change their approach to hit the ball in the air more, Mancini appears to be following suit and results will be music to the ears of anyone who gambled on him this past spring.
The contact rate issues of the last week are a concern, but hopefully this is largely due to the injury concern and not a slump. If the contact rate concerns continue another week then there may be a case for selling high on Mancini, but right now he is a player fantasy owner should be looking to continue to use, as he solidifies himself as the star in the Orioles lineup.
Mitch Haniger (OF, SEA)
52% contact rate last seven days (-15%)
If you drafted Haniger this season then you probably have mixed emotions right now. On one hand, he has eight home runs and three stolen bases with a combined 51 runs and RBI. However, he also has a woeful .236 batting average and a career-high 27.8% strikeout rate. His contact profile does provide some reason for concern, as his overall contact rate is down 3% on his career numbers. However, the biggest concern is coming on pitches outside the plate. Despite having an O-Swing% just below his career average he has an O-Contact% which is over 10% below his career numbers. In addition, his SwStr% is up around 1.5% this season compared to his career.
The concern is that pitchers have worked out how to exploit any weaknesses that Haniger has, as he is now in his third season in the AL West and his fourth in the majors. The latest dip in contact rate only serves to increase the concern. However, given the general consistency of his numbers prior to this season, it would be expected that we would see a regression to the mean for Haniger. that potential for improvement makes him an interesting buy-low candidate if his owners are starting to get frustrated.
Daniel Murphy (1B/2B, COL)
75% contact rate last seven days (-14%)
Part of the reason Murphy is even on this list is because of how good he is generally at making contact. There is also the additional factor that Murphy only has 57 PA and 13 games under his belt this season. However, so far the results have been concerning, despite the contact rate, as Murphy has just a .180 batting average. the positive is that his strikeout rate is right around his career norms and a lot of his struggles look to be down to injuries, small sample size and a bit of bad luck. For example, right now Murphy has a .167 BABIP, despite being a career .319 BABIP guy who is now playing in one of the more friendly parks for BABIP. At this stage, his contact rate profile shows no major concerns, with many numbers being either right around or superior to his career numbers.
A couple of concerns so far should relate to his batted ball numbers. For the second straight season, his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are down on his career numbers. Some of that may be due to injuries, but it could also be validating concerns we had coming into the season, which we hoped might be a one season issue.
The other issue affecting his numbers right now is a 23.4 degree launch angle, which has seen him have a 56% FB rate. That has come at the expense of his LD%, and is hopefully something we will see start to normalize as the sample size in his data increases. Despite the tough week last week, I am still a believer in Murphy's talent and my expectations are that we see his numbers start to regress back to the mean, making Murphy a buy-low.
Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool
Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. Here is a small sample:
This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription and launched on April 22nd for the 2019 season. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!
