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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 14 of the 2023 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
We are down to the last week of ESPN College Pick Em. It was another trying week for the group overall. Loopydalip and keepingthelittlehumansalive led the group with 40 points this week. Only five more entries hit 35 or more. That tightens things up a little as we head into the last week. JPH420 and 50Centi are tied for the lead with 500 points. The winner gets a free premium RotoBaller subscription for next year, so this is big! dherman08 is six points behind with 494 points. The big week from keepingthelittlehumansalive moves them into fourth place, just eight points out of first.
Kahn slides into fifth place with 485 points. ertlt is just one point behind. HoneyBadgers and mr_richard are tied for seventh with 481 points. Kev Shep sits in ninth with 476 points. Brian681757 and kingrah23 are tied for 10th with 473 points. It's a long road up that hill, but they still have an outside shot at this.
Historically, there aren't a ton of upsets during conference championship week. Four of the ten games feature a team that is more than 90% picked by the public. Kentucky busted that last week. Will one of the big underdogs do it this week? Keep in mind that the picks lock on Friday this week!
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College Football Pick Em Overview
This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. I'm against a lot of the public this week. Wish me luck!
(1) Iowa over Michigan
Losing to the Hawkeyes after Jim Harbaugh comes back would be the most Michigan thing ever...and it just might happen. Iowa's run defense is by far the best Michigan has seen this year. Iowa's offense is better, but they will need someone to make a big play. I don't know who that someone is, but Michigan is way too heavily favored here.
The Wolverines didn't win in spite of Sherrone Moore, they won because of him. That's not a popular decision, but Moore made the tough decisions and was aggressive. The kind of aggressive that we haven't seen from Harbaugh in a while. This may be wishful thinking, but I'll throw a point at it.
(2) Alabama over Georgia
In a game like this where both teams are pretty even, it comes down to quarterback play. Carson Beck has been outstanding for Georgia lately, but Jalen Milroe has been arguably the second-best player in the country for the last half of the season. Georgia got pushed by Missouri and Georgia Tech, but I still don't feel like they have been tested. And, well, the public is 75% on Georgia and I'm shooting my shot. I'm either finishing in the top 10 or the bottom 10 of the RotoBaller group. There will be no in-between.
(3) Appalachian State over Troy
Troy is 80% backed by the public, but Appalachian State is only +195 for an outright win. This should be a team that nobody wants to face right now. The Mountaineers took down undefeated James Madison in Harrisonburg, destroyed both Georgia State and Georgia Southern, and clamped down on Rasheen Ali who is probably the best back in the conference...all within the last month.
(4) Washington over Oregon
The public is 70% on the Ducks, and I get it. Washington easily could have lost to the Ducks in Seattle and it's nearly impossible to beat a good team twice in the same year. Washington is a staggering +300 to win this outright. They are getting no respect at all, and all anyone can talk about is the completion percentage of Bo Nix. I have enough confidence in Michael Penix that he will come out here and silence all critics.
(5) Louisville over Florida State
The FSU offense looked better in the second half against Florida, but it still didn't look like a unit that could move the ball on this Louisville defense. Louisville is going to get after Tate Rodemacher and they are good enough to cover the receivers. And...Trey Benson is not Ray Davis. I said it. Davis was the reason Kentucky won. Who is going to make that play for the Seminoles?
(6) Texas over Oklahoma State
I want to say that Oklahoma State can win this, but I know they can't. It doesn't have much to do with the talent that Texas has. It has just as much to do with the name and color of their uniform. Texas has been in the heads of every Big 12 school since the inception of this conference with the exception of Oklahoma. The Longhorns turn from a big, juicy steak into this mythical creature that can only be slain by a perfect game or Michael Crabtree. And...the Pokes lost to UCF by 42 freaking points...
(7) Liberty over New Mexico State
I want to pick the Aggies here because they are playing well, but I just don't see them going back to Lynchburg and winning. They got smoked by the Flames here in September. They also lost outright to UMass and struggled with Louisiana Tech...both teams that Liberty handled easily. A New Year's Six bowl is at stake for the Flames and who doesn't want to see Kaidon Salter in a New Year's Six bowl?
(8) UNLV over Boise State
Come on...the game is in Vegas. How many teams get a home game for their conference championship? Bettors have underestimated the Rebels all year. Now it's the Pick Em folks. The Rebels are +120 to win outright. I'll take that bet and try to steal some points while I'm at it.
(9) Tulane over SMU
Tulane shouldn't struggle to score on SMU and I'm sure that the Tulane defense can hold up their end of the bargain. They have been bailing the offense out all season. I don't like putting what should be a close game up this high, but we have some really good matchups this weekend.
(10) Toledo over Miami (OH)
The Rockets beat the Redhawks a little over a month ago when the Redhawks had Brett Gabbert for much of that game. That game was also in Oxford. This being on a neutral field in Detroit feels like it significantly favors Toledo.
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