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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 12 of the 2023 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
We only have two weeks of ESPN College Pick Em left for the 2023 season. CreightonWillWin continues his late-season push with a 53-point week. That was five points better than dherman8. Three more entries hit 45 or better and a full dozen hit 40. This was one of the better weeks as a group in quite some time.
50Centi extended his lead this week. A strong week by dherman8 moves him into second with 467 points, four points off the lead. JPH420 is just one point behind dherman8, so it's close at the top. Kahn is seven points back of third. ertlt rounds out the top five with 457 points. 29 points now separate first from 10th place. That's not an insurmountable lead, but it's tough to climb that hill with just two weeks left.
It's rivalry week, so Pick Em usually gets really crazy this week. The point wager on Michigan-Ohio State could decide a lot of things. The public is 90% or more backing one team in half of this week's matchups. That's not including Louisville's 88% backing against Kentucky. If you're not in first and don't mind dropping further in the standings, this is a great place to try and steal points.
College Football Pick Em Overview
This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. I'm against a lot of the public this week. Wish me luck!
(1) Oregon State over Washington
Many a team has come into Corvallis and had title hopes dashed by far less talented Oregon State teams. The Beavers are mad. Mad that ESPN and Fox collaborated to kill the best conference in college football this year. Mad that ESPN took GameDay to the Fun Belt instead of Corvallis, who last hosted GameDay for the 2010 Civil War. Mad that Washington is still trying to control the conference they are leaving. While most of this doesn't affect the players on the field, you know the GameDay thing does.
(2) Iowa State over Texas
Texas has been begging to lose for weeks now. Iowa State's defense is good enough to beat them and the loss of Jonathon Brooks is huge. CJ Baxter is going to be good, but what I saw from Quinn Ewers last week against TCU is a bit concerning. The Cyclones are tough at home. This one just feels like an upset. With the public 95% on Texas, I'll try to snipe a couple of points.
(3) SMU over Memphis
I was going to take Memphis, but they don't have the defense to pull this off. SMU's offense is finally cooking with Preston Stone at the helm and Miami transfer Jaylan Knighton learning the offense.
(4) Arizona over Utah
The Wildcats are getting disrespected again. According to Vegas, this game is a toss-up. The moneyline on both teams is at -110. You're not going to find a more even game than this. I have no problem taking the home team when the public is 66% on the road team with an even moneyline. I've watched enough Arizona this year to know that Utah is going to have problems covering all of those receivers.
(5) Miami (FL) over Louisville
Just look at how Vegas views this game. Louisville almost lost at home to Virginia. Miami hung with a good Florida State team on the road. This game is in Miami and Vegas odds are +100 on the Canes. They are trying to push bettors away from Miami. Why pick a dog when they are only paying out even money? Because Vegas thinks Miami is going to win this game. They're covering themselves because they expect the sharps to go heavy on Miami. That's enough for me to pick the Hurricanes outright.
(6) James Madison over Appalachian State
ESPN helps destroy the Pac-12, then snubs one of the two teams left for a GameDay visit. Sure, it's nice for James Madison, but this is the utmost sign of disrespect from the most elitist network in the world. ESPN has proven their point. James Madison will prove theirs on the field.
(7) Clemson over North Carolina
The Tigers are playing well right now and are plenty equipped to play spoiler to a still-overrated Tarheels team that has struggled on the road. The Clemson run game is good enough to keep the Tarheel offense off the field. The defense has allowed 45 points to a Duke team without Riley Leonard and 46 to Georgia Tech in their last two games against FBS teams.
(8) UNLV over Air Force
I'm going to guess that 83% of ESPN College Pick Em pickers haven't watched UNLV play this season. The Air Force defense is going to be a problem, but UNLV is better on both sides of the ball than they have been in at least two generations. Whenever the public is this heavy on what looks like a pick-em at worst, I'm laying a lot of points. Air Force has lost to an Army team that needed a blocked punt for a touchdown to beat Holy Cross and a 4-7 Hawaii team in the last two weeks.
(9) Louisville over Kentucky
I am nervous about this game and may end up moving it down. The last time Kentucky played a ranked Louisville team, the game was also in Louisville. Lamar Jackson led the Cardinals to #11 in the nation. Kentucky had lost to South Carolina the week before. Then they beat Louisville. Kentucky is staring down another Music City Bowl berth and the natives are getting restless. This is all too familiar for Mark Stoops. The same thing happened before the Cats beat #11 Louisville in 2016.
To my eyes, Kentucky looked worse against South Carolina than they did in 2016 and unlike the 2016 Cardinals, Louisville has been tested a few times this year. It feels like Louisville won't blow this one. They are staring down an ACC title and New Year's Six bowl since Florida State lost Jordan Travis.
(10) Kansas over Cincinnati
Cole Ballard or Jason Bean. It really doesn't matter. Both of them have looked good leading the Kansas offense. The Jayhawks are going to have to throw more against the Cincinnati defense, but I'm confident enough that either quarterback and those receivers can handle it. This is a game that Devin Neal can take over. Kansas State has a vaunted run defense and Neal still had a strong game.
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