College Football Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pick 'Em Contests

November 7, 2023

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 11 of the 2023 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

How in the world is it November already? Including this week, we only have four weeks of ESPN College Pick Em left. That's less than a third of the season left. To the victor goes a premium RotoBaller subscription for 2024. May the best prognosticator win! In Week 10, that was GoCru with 49 points. andolinojt, Kahn, BKNoleGirl, and MadCaddie6 all broke 40 points this week. It's not the usual suspects, so the standings got a little more interesting!

JPH420 held onto first with 400 points. 50Centi is just two points back. Kahn's strong week moved him into third place with 392 points. ertlt hangs in fourth place with 390 points. HoneyBadgers rounds out the top five with 387 points. The gap between fifth and sixth is up to seven points, so the pack is starting to separate.

Once again, all 10 games are conference games this week. Oh man, this looks tough. It feels like another week where the low-40s could lead the group in points again.

College Football Pick Em Overview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. I'm against a lot of the public this week. Wish me luck!

(1) Michigan over Penn State

You know that the Nittany Lions were one of the most "scouted" teams by the Michigan staff (come on...we all know it wasn't one lowly guy). I also know that Penn State can't adjust this quickly to throw the Wolverines off the scent. If this was a white-out game at night, I would go Penn State. Instead, it's an East Coast nooner. The only drunk and raucous students are going to be the ones who started the night before, and let's face it...kids aren't as dedicated as they used to be.

(2) San Jose State over Fresno State

I'm worried about this one. The Spartans are tough at home, but Fresno is tough everywhere. The public is really heavy on Fresno (97%). Since I have this game low on the list anyway, I'm going to flip to the Spartans at home and see if I can steal a couple of points.

(3) Georgia over Mississippi

That's right...Georgia hasn't played Ole Miss in seven years. That's what happens in super-conferences. It's a terrible look, honestly. It feels like a couple of pieces of this Georgia team were on that one, but that's not the case. This game is in Athens and the talent gap is larger than most people think.

(4) Western Kentucky over New Mexico State

This is not the same New Mexico State team that lost to UMass. We can't pick them like they are. If we do, this looks like a laugher. I have this lower because I expect a good game here. I'm taking the Hilltoppers at home, but it's hard to put much stock in a team that not only can't run the ball, but they flat-out refuse to.

(5) Missouri over Tennessee

This all comes down to consistency. Missouri has been very consistent this year. They embody the leader of the offense (Brady Cook). Tennessee isn't all that consistent and it gets worse when they hit the road.

(6) Coastal Carolina over Texas State

I know...I know...who has time to watch all of these football games? I do. Right now I am on a cruise ship at one in the morning (ship time) watching the Alabama-LSU game and writing this piece. It's a kind of glory that I never knew existed. The moral of the story is that through the modern wonders of the internet, I watched both teams last weekend...and Texas State is terrible on the road. That's good enough for me!

(7) Virginia Tech over Boston College

That looks awfully close to a toss-up to me. However, the public is overwhelmingly (88%) on the Eagles. I don't buy it. I didn't even before ESPN (and Vegas) labeled this a toss-up. This is more than stealing points...this is stealing a large amount of points!

(8) Kansas over Texas Tech

If the game were in Lubbock, I would have to think about it a little more. The changing of the guard in the Big 12 (14) is already beginning. Kansas is a contender next year in this conference, which just happens to have an automatic bid to the bloated playoffs. How they finish this year will be the launching point.

(9) Iowa over Rutgers

I still haven't seen a Big Ten team that can handle the Iowa defense except for Penn State. Rutgers is not Penn State. Iowa is built to dominate the middle of this conference so they leave the illusion that they are among the elites.

(10) Oklahoma State over Central Florida

This is what happens when you end rivalries. It doesn't matter who has the most wins in the series. It only matters who won the one that matters. Even if Bedlam is picked up again, it won't be a yearly thing and won't mean nearly as much. It's the end of an era.

A new era of the Big 12 begins in Orlando this week with the Pokes taking on what is expected to be one of the better teams in the conference next year as well. Expect the established team to dominate this one.

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