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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 9 (October 27-28, 2022) Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
This is the lightest college football week in quite some time. There are only 47 total games this weekend. We have a nice three-game slate on Thursday and a pair on Friday before the Saturday chaos. A lot of teams have open weeks in the middle of conference play.
What did we learn in Week 8? We learned that Iowa's offense is historically bad. We learned that TCU likes to get way behind just to see if they can come from behind again. We learned that Ohio State might be the most complete team. We also relearned something that we already knew: You never, EVER, want to face Nick Saban after a loss.
There were only 52 games played this week thanks to the postponement of the San Jose State-New Mexico State game. Spartans freshman RB Camdan McWright was killed in an accident on Friday morning and the schools agreed to play at a later date. Our condolences go out to the Spartans and McWright's family. Sometimes it's easy to forget the human aspect of this game we all love.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 9 (10/27 - 10/28)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Virginia Tech at (24)North Carolina State(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is tough. Jack Chambers looked more comfortable last week and Tech...well...they're Tech. They can't move the ball and they can't stop the run. I have to go with the Pack. Cue the Pat McAfee howl!
Louisiana(-1.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The juice is a touch high on Southern Miss, which is a bit surprising. I still see the Eagles favored in a couple of spots. No one really knows what to do with this line. That said, I really like how the Cajuns have looked with Brandon Wooldridge lately. I'll take Louisiana.
(14)Utah(-7.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The big win over USC and then a bye? This feels like a total trap for Utah, but I don't trust Wazzu to set it correctly. Give me Utah.
East Carolina at BYU(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This one really surprises me. Yeah, the thin air could be an issue, but I promise you the BYU defense is more of an issue. Give me ECU straight up!
Louisiana Tech(-6.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This looks high, especially if Gunnar Holmberg can play. The Louisiana Tech run defense is the worst in the country. I actually like FIU outright at home!
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 8. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
This should be better than last week, but I was out running around all day Saturday, so I didn't get a good grasp on everything that happened. I know missed a couple going into Saturday, so I didn't get off to a great start.
Georgia State at Appalachian State(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Panthers looked good early, jumping up two touchdowns in the first quarter. They wouldn't score again until the fourth quarter. Camerun Peoples had a big game for the Mountaineers who were content to run most of the game.
Virginia at Georgia Tech(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Virginia offense is still the stuff that nightmares are made of. Jeff Sims did start the game, but he didn't even make it through a quarter. The Wreck bogged down without the threat of Sims running the ball. This was painful to watch if you like offense.
Troy at South Alabama(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Troy defense dominated even though the offense was very one-dimensional. Thursday was a rough DFS night with only 41 combined points scored among the four teams.
Tulsa(-13.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Davis Brin and the Tulsa passing game were largely a disaster. Deneric Prince had a huge game for Tulsa to grind this out, but the Temple defense looked rather impressive in this one. That wasn't good for me...
UAB at Western Kentucky(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UAB jumped out nicely, but losing Dylan Hopkins on the second drive led to a bogged-down UAB unit the rest of the way. Baylor transfer Jacob Zeno struggled mightily and DeWayne McBride fumbled at a couple of critical junctures to sink the Blazers.
Iowa at (2)Ohio State(-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I earned this loss. I knew better than to bet anything on Iowa. The defense was powerless against the Buckeyes, but there aren't many defenses that could limit Ohio State this year. Iowa's only touchdown game defensively (Shocker!). This was the most points that Iowa has allowed in a single game since they allowed 56 points to...Ohio State on October 28, 1995. The difference? Iowa scored 35 points in that game. To put that in perspective, Iowa has scored 30 points in the entire month of October...
(14)Syracuse at (5)Clemson(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Orange offense was a disaster in the second half. This defense did more than could reasonably be expected of them. Don't blame the Syracuse D. They forced five turnovers and a benching of D.J. Uiagalelei and the offense still couldn't get it done.
(21)Cincinnati(-3.5) at SMU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cincinnati nearly blew a 15-point lead and probably should have lost this game. Their defense in the fourth quarter bordered on awful. I was feeling good about this bet before the final stanza.
Kansas at Baylor(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Richard Reese continues to dazzle for the Bears. The Kansas pass defense held its own and the offense once again kept the Jayhawks in the game. That last win needed for bowl eligibility is going to be tricky, but I do think the Jayhawks pull it off. This is still a scrappy team.
Louisiana-Monroe at Army(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect Monroe to just fall apart at the end, but the Army run game beat them senseless.
Indiana at Rutgers(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Indiana scored touchdowns on their first two drives of the game and got nothing else for the rest of the game. How does that even happen? The Rutgers interception return for a touchdown changed the entire game and the Hoosiers basically fell apart.
Houston(-2.5) at Navy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I always knew this was a possibility since Houston has far more talent than Navy. The Houston run defense held tough and it looks like they finally have a back they can lean on in Stacy Sneed.
Akron at Kent State(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yes, Akron lost, but there were a lot of good things to take away from this for the Zips. D.J. Irons threw for 383 yards, proving that he can throw as well as run. Alex Adams racked up 199 receiving yards as well, so it looks like Irons has finally found a favorite target.
Duke at Miami(FL)(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a very different game before Tyler Van Dyke went down for the Hurricanes. Duke was hanging with Miami, but things got sideways in a hurry in the fourth quarter. Jake Garcia did well in relief at times, but his five turnovers let the game get out of hand. The Hurricanes turned it over a staggering eight times, the most in a Power 5 conference game since 2009.
Toledo(-7.5) at Buffalo: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Toledo's offense looked solid for a half and the defense was great until they allowed 24 fourth-quarter points to give the Bulls the game. Well...the offense helped. Toledo turned it over six times, including five in the second half.
Bowling Green at Central Michigan(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Not only did the Falcons win outright, but they dominated the fourth quarter to nearly double up the Chips. I should have bet more on this one.
Eastern Michigan at Ball State(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Eagles are an anomaly in college football. They definitely play their worst at home. The defense did a good job on Carson Steele and the Cardinals couldn't get anything going through the air.
Northern Illinois(-2.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bobcats didn't win by double digits, but they did take it by a touchdown. The Ohio defense allowed a lot of yards to Antario Brown, but they did manage to keep him out of the end zone.
UNLV at Notre Dame(-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Notre Dame dominated the first quarter and then they kind of got bored...
West Virginia at Texas Tech(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Texas Tech "open audition" turned into a Behren Morton start, brilliant performance, and blowout win. Donovan Smith didn't see the field until the game was well out of hand.
Rice(-2.5) at Louisiana Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tech went for two and the win in overtime and missed, but my bet was screwed either way. Luke McCaffrey had a monster game in the win, but the Rice defense didn't hold up their end of the bargain.
(7)Mississippi at LSU(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ole Miss jumped out to a two-touchdown lead and the rout was on...until it wasn't. The Mississippi defense let Jayden Daniels run wild on them in the second half while the Ole Miss offense got nothing in the second half and nothing of significance after the first seven minutes.
(9)UCLA at (10)Oregon(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. I've watched the UCLA defense enough with my own eyes to believe the hype. Bo Nix tore them apart with five touchdown passes.
(20)Texas(-6.5) at (11)Oklahoma State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Quinn Ewers is human after all. He also showed his inexperience in this one. The drops by the Texas receivers certainly didn't help, but he had too much on a lot of passes in this one. Oklahoma State showed their toughness on D as they held the Longhorns to just three second-half points. The second half has been an issue for the Pokes on defense. Have they turned it around?
Boston College at (13)Wake Forest(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oh man, that BC offense outside of Zay Flowers is a total disaster. If he had an accurate quarterback throwing to him, he would have had 20 receptions. Maybe Wake should organize a trade for Flowers...
Memphis at (25)Tulane(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wave did everything they could to lose this game. It's a good thing they built a 35-0 lead by the half. The Memphis offense solved the Tulane D in the second half and the conservative play-calling by Tulane helped the comeback effort.
BYU(-6.5) at Liberty: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really wish that I hadn't chickened out on this one. BYU doesn't have a skill player playing at 100%, and their backups aren't playing much either. That says that the Cougars lack depth and that defense just keeps getting gashed. I feel bad for Jaren Hall and Puka Nacua. I really do.
Purdue at Wisconsin(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Aidan O'Connell made enough bad decisions early to let the Badgers jump out quickly and the Purdue defense had no answer for the Wisconsin run game. Graham Mertz didn't make the mistakes that plagued him against Michigan State last week. O'Connell led a nice comeback attempt, but the Boilers dug themselves too large of a hole in the first half.
Northwestern at Maryland(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If I had known that Northwestern was finally pulling the plug on Ryan Hilinski, I would have lowered the bet. Brendan Sullivan had his bad moments, but his dual-threat ability and mostly accurate passes had Northwestern moving the ball better than they had since Week 0 in Dublin. Maryland...they just do what they do. Roman Hemby is possibly the best true freshman in FBS this year, and that's saying a lot.
Western Michigan at Miami(OH)(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Brett Gabbert's return was spoiled by Sean Tyler and the Western Michigan defense. Freshman Treyson Bourguet got a win in his collegiate debut. The Redhawks couldn't get anything going on the ground and they lost their first home game since 2018...which was against Western Michigan.
Marshall at James Madison(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
As expected, Khalan Laborn was a huge problem for the Dukes. Colombi didn't have to try to throw to win. This was one of the more interesting first quarters I have watched this year. JMU led 12-2 after the first 15 minutes. Marshall's points game on a blocked extra point returned the other way.
Georgia Southern at Old Dominion(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This game was as much fun as I expected. The Georgia Southern run game was able to power them to victory and the defense held Hayden Wolff to 328 passing yards. Go take a peep at his stats. That's a solid accomplishment.
Florida International at Charlotte(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew the Charlotte defense was bad, but I didn't think they were bad enough to get blown out at home by FIU...
North Texas at UTSA(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was all the Roadrunners could do to escape with the win. A De'Corian Clark touchdown catch with 15 seconds left sealed it for UTSA. Austin Aune wasn't that accurate, but he hit Roderic Burns deep a couple of times in this one.
Vanderbilt at Missouri(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Missouri defense has looked good for several weeks now. About that offense... Luther Burden is a stud, but he needs a better quarterback. I wonder what this team would look like if Connor Bazelak had stayed in Columbia. As for Vanderbilt...they're getting better by the week. They're a long way from the top of the SEC, but they are no longer clearly at the bottom.
Arizona State at Stanford(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was barely a win. The improvement by the Stanford defense in the last month or so is impressive. The "slow mesh" offense is starting to take shape, but teams figure it out after a quarter or two. Still, this is a big win for the Cardinal, and the first time they have won a game without scoring a touchdown since 1995.
Hawaii at Colorado State(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii's defense has shown up in the last couple of weeks. They didn't win outright as I thought, but the job they did on Clay Millen in his return was impressive. It's baby steps for the Warriors right now.
Florida Atlantic(-4.5) at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
FAU couldn't get out of their own way in this one. Turnovers hurt and the offense looked out of sync.
Arkansas State at Louisiana(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fresno State transfer Ben Wooldridge doubled his season total in passing touchdowns in this one. The Arkansas State secondary did not play well in this one.
Southern Mississippi(-2.5) at Texas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats held Gore in check. It was Chandler Pittman with the big play to put the Eagles ahead for good.
Fresno State(-10.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Everything was clicking for the Bulldogs in this one. Logan Fife even ran for a pair of touchdowns. I should have wagered more on this one. New Mexico's run defense has been a problem all season long.
(24)Mississippi State at (6)Alabama(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hell hath no fury like a Nick Saban scorned.
Boise State at Air Force(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Taylen Green is a game-changer for the Broncos. He still makes a few ill-advised throws, but they are becoming fewer by the week. This is going to be a dangerous team down the stretch and into next year.
Minnesota at (16)Penn State(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Penn State was able to sell out to stop the run with Tanner Morgan missing this game due to a concussion suffered last week. Ibrahim still had a solid game, but the Minnesota offense couldn't move the ball consistently enough to give the defense some rest. The good Sean Clifford showed up for the Nittany Lions again. If I had known Morgan was out, I would have lowered the bet.
Texas A&M(-3.5) at South Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If you take away the opening kickoff and the first-drive turnover deep in their own territory, the Aggies were the better team. They dug themselves a hell of a hole and weren't good enough to get out. It's nice to have a great recruiting class, but don't talk trash until those recruits start performing, Jimbo. You should know better.
Central Florida(-4.5) at East Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Many defenses have tried to do what ECU did in this game and failed, sometimes in spectacular fashion. Holton Ahlers performed great in a matchup of dual-threat quarterbacks and Keaton Mitchell proved that one good back is better than three in a committee. This was a beatdown. UCF couldn't cover the receivers or stop the run...
(17)Kansas State at (8)TCU(3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was really looking forward to the Adrian Martinez vs. Max Duggan game, but Martinez left on the first drive and was unable to return. I've watched a lot of Will Howard, but the Will Howard we saw that came on in relief here has done a lot of work to become a better player. He led the Wildcats to three straight touchdown drives and an 18-point lead. TCU's speed was too much for the K-State defense, but I think the Wildcats can be happy knowing that Will Howard no longer deprives that offense of explosiveness. They can still be competitive if Martinez is forced to miss time. Do you still need proof that TCU is a different team this year? How about this: The Toadies have beaten four consecutive ranked teams for the first time in team history.
Colorado at Oregon State(-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
J.T. Shrout looked better than he did earlier in the season, but he's no Owen McCown. In all fairness, it wouldn't have mattered who was playing quarterback for the Ralphies in this one. That defense couldn't stop the run at all.
Pittsburgh at Louisville(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cardinals are a different team with Malik Cunningham on the field. It also helps when Kedon Slovis keeps making back-breaking mistakes.
Utah State at Wyoming(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Utah State may have been on their fourth quarterback, but you can't blame Bishop Davenport for this loss. He was enough of a game manager to keep the offense moving. The problem was the Utah State defense got punished by the Wyoming backs. Not just Titus Swen...all of them.
Washington(-7.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Washington defense reared its ugly head in the second half to blow this cover by that half. Oh...and Marshawn Lynch is still a national treasure! That sideline interview was one of the best I have ever seen.
San Diego State(-7.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was easy money. The Aztecs look pretty good when they have a quarterback that can hit receivers every once in a while. Speaking of, I think the Nate Cox experiment is finally over in Reno. Shane Illingworth has earned a start or two with his performance here.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I rebounded a touch from the 1-4 start to the week to finish at 25-27. That moves me down to 204-223 on the season. I'm used to October being my best month of the season. Not this year. It has been a tough month. I can thank Eastern Michigan, Indiana, and Penn State for that.
I missed both max bets because A&M dozed off for the first ten minutes and Northwestern finally wised up and switched quarterbacks. I fear that I lost a lot of points despite my acceptable overall record.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-1 (29-19) = 10
2. 11-7 (86-88) = -4
3. 8-12 (58-73) = -45
4. 3-5 (24-31) = -28
5. 0-2 (7-12) = -25
I'm dominating those ones, huh? Unfortunately, I'm losing the rest. I lost another 20 points this week giving me a total loss of 92 points on the season. That means my piggy bank which has been accumulating since 2016 is now empty and I'm down two points overall.
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