RADIO
Mike's CFB bettings picks against the spread for Week 6 (10-7-22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
Dish's feud with The Mouse got in the way of some of my football watching this week, but I improvised and still caught a majority of the action. There are no Thursday games this week, but that makes for a very entertaining Friday. I could get used to that! We do have one game on Wednesday, but I already picked that one last week and the line hasn't really moved.
What did we learn in Week 5? We learn a lot more when teams aren't playing against FCS schools. Oklahoma's defense is terrible. Learning the new scheme has not gone well for them. Nebraska should just hire Mickey Joseph right now. There were a couple of questionable decisions in the Indiana game, but the players clearly want to play for him. Just check out the post-game celebration. He's not a big name, but he is the right guy for the job.
We learned that Alabama's backup QB is better than your starter. Minnesota is lost without Ibrahim. Another two coaches got fired, and one was the most surprising so far. I think Wisconsin is playing a dangerous game unless there was something else going on that we don't know about. Oh, and college football injury reports, or lack thereof, are stunting the growth of the game. Most people need action to get and stay interested in the game. Not knowing Ibrahim was out until the second-half kickoff is annoying and unnecessary, and will eventually hurt the bottom line of the sport we all love.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 5 (10/7)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Nebraska(-3.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Say what now? This line has been yanked on some very popular sites which usually sets off my panic button. Not here. Rutgers has been awful for the entire season. We won't learn a lot about Nebraska here, but they are finally playing with a purpose after two years of wondering when Scott Frost will be fired. Nebraska by double digits!
Houston at Memphis(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. I've still seen it as high as -5 at some casinos, but most online sportsbooks have it at -3. Caesar's has it at -2.5 with less juice than some of the sites that have it at -3. I'm not super confident in this one, but I also don't see this dysfunctional Houston team winning in the Liberty Bowl. I'll take Memphis. If it goes above -3, then it gets dicey.
Colorado State at Nevada(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Toa Taua is back and the Rams have replaced their mascot with a lamb after getting blasted by Sacramento State. Nevada wins BIG!
UNLV at San Jose State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Bettors are panicked because of UNLV's lackluster showing against the Lobos at home last week. I'm not saying that's not a good reason, but this still feels high, especially since this line opened with UNLV favored. I'm 0-3 picking the Spartans this year, so I obviously don't have a great read on them. They did a great job against the run last week in Laramie, which has me really nervous about this one. I think UNLV keeps it within 3-4 points, but I'm not betting this one. Two max bets on a Friday is enough to get my blood pumping for the weekend.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 5. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
I go into most weeks feeling like I've had a bad week, but this is going to be a really bad one. Like I've-embarrassed-my-family-name bad. I had three losing streaks of five games or more, with one of them hitting nine. I'm really not looking forward to this, but...
Utah State at (19)BYU(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nukua ended up missing this game, which hindered the BYU offense some. Still, the Cougars' defense left something to be desired. For Utah State, it looks like this job should go to Cooper Legas. He didn't play a flawless game, but he got the offense to move the ball much better than Logan Bonner did in the first month.
Tulane at Houston(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Houston has done everything possible to beat themselves this year. Honestly, I thought Holgorsen would be the next coach to be let go after this one. They lost to a Tulane team with a third-string quarterback and their starting running back under center.
UTSA(-4.5) at Middle Tennessee State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This UTSA team is fun to watch. I'll keep saying it until you start watching! De'Corian Clark was good last year, but he has made some big strides already this year. The Roadrunners could put two receivers in the NFL next year!
San Diego State at Boise State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm done with the Aztecs. They were up 13-0 at the half, then allowed 35 unanswered in the second half. This was a game that they were in control of and they never came out of the locker room. Sam Vidlak might be the new starter for Boise. He looked strong against this defense.
(15)Washington(-2.5) at UCLA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Michael Penix had good numbers, but most of them were put up when this game was already salted away. UCLA didn't even score in the fourth quarter. The Washington defense was carved up by Zach Charbonnet and DTR.
New Mexico at UNLV(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was impressed with the job the Lobos defense did on Aidan Robbins. The offense looked solid as well. New Mexico is improving quickly and this game was much closer than the final tally indicates. The Rebels returned an interception for a touchdown with a minute left in the game to make it look a little more lopsided.
(4)Michigan(-10.5) at Iowa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
How Michigan's defense got bored enough to allow two touchdowns to Iowa, I will never know. They made me sweat this a little. I know Iowa's defense isn't the problem. This was a bit of a coming-out party for Blake Corum. Running for 133 yards on this defense deserves some attention.
(7)Kentucky at Mississippi(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a rough loss for Kentucky. I won either way, but wow...losing that way can really affect the entire season. The Wildcats got a big play to get into scoring position, then the touchdown pass to Zane Key was negated by an illegal motion penalty. They proceeded to fumble on the next play to give the game to Ole Miss. Merry Christmas in October, Rebels!
(18)Oklahoma(-6.5) at TCU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is absolutely no excuse for the defense to be this bad against opposing quarterbacks. First Adrian Martinez, now Max Duggan...a player that the defense has handled for the last four years. We never dominated Duggan, but he wasn't allowed to shred the defense either. TCU's team speed was a massive problem. The injury to Dillon Gabriel was unfortunate, but Oklahoma was losing by two touchdowns at that time anyway. Giving up 41 points in the first half is something I thought I wouldn't have to deal with again.
The secondary doesn't cover anyone. The defense only tackles when a pass is in the air. I have a hard time believing that it's just the scheme. Players aren't making fundamental plays. I'm not sure what the fix is, but I'm pretty sure that Oklahoma is going to lose five games for the first time since 2014. Right now, I hope that five is all we lose. Oklahoma hasn't had a losing season since 1998. That might be in jeopardy this year.
Purdue at (21)Minnesota(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was an ugly game. Aidan O'Connell ended up playing. Mohamed Ibrahim did not. That's as much of a reason for the Minnesota win as anything else. I put a lot of this on the Minnesota receivers. There were some dropped passes and none of the interceptions thrown by Tanner Morgan was really his fault. Would I have changed this had I known that Ibrahim was out and O'Connell was in? Probably, but such are injury reports in college football. Good luck to King Doerue in getting his starting job back. Devin Mockobee was huge for Purdue in this one, especially late in the game when the Boilermakers controlled the fourth quarter.
Texas Tech at (25)Kansas State(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
RIP, Texas Tech run defense. They were carved up by both Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn in this one. It was another productive day for Donovan Smith, but it's a tough feeling when the defense can't stop the run. The loss to Tulane wasn't a terrible one for K-State. I wonder what could have been had they used Martinez like they are now back in that game. They didn't really turn him loose until the Oklahoma game.
Georgia State at Army(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The outright win didn't surprise me all that much. I wish I would have put a higher point value on this since I ended up betting it anyway. This was a dominant performance by the Georgia State defense. The offense wasn't too shabby either.
Illinois at Wisconsin(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Was losing by 24 at home to a former coach enough to fire the current coach? Not in my mind, but the fact that Wisconsin hasn't had a serviceable quarterback since Russell Wilson in 2011 may have had something to do with it. Graham Mertz made some more unadvisable throws and the Illini defense was good enough to make him pay.
Louisville(-15.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yes, Malik Cunningham not being able to return to the game hurt Louisville, but they weren't going to cover this anyway. Phil Jurkovec had his best game of the year and Zay Flowers ran wild in the Louisville secondary. There were several complete failures of the Louisville defense at key times.
Navy at Air Force(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I figured this was high. It turns out that Navy alternating quarterbacks is the right move this year, but Air Force really could have made this worse. The Navy defense stepped up, but the Falcons missed on a couple of plays that could have blown this open.
Temple at Memphis(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Temple held tough for a half. They actually led 3-0 at intermission. Memphis finally wore them out in the second half and picking off E.J. Warner three times didn't hurt. It's not a good sign that Seth Henigan led the Tigers in rushing though.
Texas State at James Madison(-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Learn the names Latrele Palmer and Todd Centeio. They are going to come in handy come Fun Belt mid-week games and bowl season for DFS.
Oregon State at (12)Utah(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known that the Beavers would still be hung over from last week. They came out flat in this one, which is something you absolutely can't do against Utah. Cameron Rising had a huge day for the Utes here...one week after the Beavers locked down Caleb Williams.
Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I will never understand why this Eastern Michigan offense sputters at times with Samson Evans and Austin Smith, not to mention the stable of receivers they have. This game wasn't full of defensive lapses. It was the offense that couldn't get going in the first half, which led to a close game against UMass...you know...the team that has been covered by everyone else to this point. This wasn't even a huge spread!
Northern Illinois(-4.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
John Paddock went nuts for the Cardinals in the second half after Ball State couldn't handle Harrison Waylee in the first half. MACtion isn't just for the middle of the week. NIU opened it up with a double-overtime road loss to David Letterman U.
East Carolina(-9.5) at South Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Holton Ahlers destroyed the USF defense, throwing for 465 yards and six touchdowns before the offense took the fourth quarter off. This game wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicates...and it wasn't even really that close. The 20-point win is nice for ECU, but if they hadn't let off the gas, they might have won by double that.
(2)Alabama(-17.5) at (20)Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young left this game in the second quarter and the Piggies still got covered. That speaks volumes about Alabama's depth, but it's also an indictment of Arkansas' receiving corps. They didn't open the game up downfield at all like Treylon Burks was able to against the Tide last season.
Rutgers at (3)Ohio State(-39.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Rutgers had their first-ever lead on the Buckeyes in this one, but the good news ends there for Rutgers fans. TreVeyon Henderson missed this game so Miyan Williams ran for five touchdowns instead...and the Buckeyes still missed the cover by a half-point. This game was never in question. I'm glad the Buckeyes slowed down in the fourth for me to snag that one point.
(9)Oklahoma State at (16)Baylor(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That Oklahoma State defensive front was tough and Spencer Sanders showed that he can run a little in this one. The ball hawks in the OSU secondary came up big in this one. Blake Shapen did everything he could to get back in this game.
Northwestern at (11)Penn State(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a game that Penn State should have dominated in the deluge. I thought about backing off of this one, but I still thought the Nittany Lions' run game would be good enough for the cover. Too many turnovers doomed this line. Penn State couldn't get out of its own way. Their five turnovers were the most since the 2011 Outback Bowl.
(22)Wake Forest at (23)Florida State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a great rebound by Wake. Their run defense was as strong as it has been all season. I know they only won by ten, but the Demon Deacons controlled this entire game.
Iowa State(-3.5) at Kansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This didn't have the offensive fireworks that I was expecting. The Iowa State defense locked down Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks were still able to win on their running backs and defense. Three missed field goals for the Cyclones doomed their chances in this one. The two turnovers didn't help either.
Fresno State(-24.5) at Connecticut: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How about the outright win for UConn? That is cause for celebration, backup quarterback or not. Logan Fife was harassed and made some poor decisions in this game. The drop from Haener to Fife was much worse than most of us anticipated.
Michigan State at Maryland(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Terps aren't just a passing team. The three-headed monster at running back helped run this game out on the Spartans, but I still had to sweat this. Michigan State got too close for comfort a couple of times late in the game.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Everything that the Hokies could possibly do wrong, they did. I don't know why it surprises me anymore. I don't feel like Grant Wells is a good fit here. Maybe he's just pushing too hard. Whatever the cause or the reasoning, I'm staying away from the Hokies for a while. They're a mess.
Central Michigan at Toledo(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A massive second quarter fueled by Chippewa fumbilitis was too much for CMU to overcome. The Toledo defense showed up big in this one.
Bowling Green(-9.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Akron isn't an automatic win anymore. They didn't go quietly in this one. Last year, the Zips would have fallen apart after fumbling a punt inside the five and allowing a touchdown. This year's version still hung tough and almost pulled out the win.
Miami(OH) at Buffalo(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a game that Miami really should have won. They outgained the Bulls by 81 yards and held Cole Snyder to just 188 passing yards.
Ohio at Kent State(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Kent did not roll. Ohio trolled! The Bobcats' defense got destroyed again, allowing 240 rushing yards (on 40 carries!) to Marquez Cooper, and Collin Schlee threw for nearly 400 yards (246 of them to Dante Cephas). Ball security was a big problem for Kent. This was a line that they would have covered easily if they hadn't fumbled six times. Instead, they had to pull off the win in overtime.
(17)Texas A&M at Mississippi State(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I blame ESPN for this constant toxic slobbering over A&M so often that they convince the rest of us that this is a good team. Jimbo is the Jim Harbaugh of the SEC. He may eventually climb that mountain, but he's going to fail far more often on the way up.
Florida Atlantic(-3.5) at North Texas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Owls did a pretty good job on Roderic Burns, but they allowed 300 yards rushing and 118 yards in interception returns. All three receptions by Jyaire Shorter went for touchdowns and the Owls were buried early. They fought back some, but not being able to stop the North Texas ground game ruined their second half. the defense couldn't get off the field.
South Alabama(-8.5) at Louisiana: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a nice rebound game for Louisiana even though they still lost on a last-second field goal. South Alabama is a strong team.
California at Washington State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know...I'm a broken record, but Cal is still young. This Washington State defense is a strong unit despite what Oregon did to them at the end of the game last week. This game just proves that they were able to have a short memory. The Cougars are 4-1 for the first time since 2018 now and might be a force in the Pac-12 North. Of course, I said that about Washington last week...
Liberty(-3.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Old Dominion lost track of Hawaii transfer Dae Dae Hunter a few too many times in this one.
UTEP(-2.5) at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Chris Reynolds had another big game for the 49ers, but the defense got gouged again. Gavin Hardison only attempted 14 passes since the ground game was going so well for the Miners.
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was everything that I expected. Of course, Grayson McCall pulls out the win because that's just what he does. This was a valiant effort by the Eagles, but they didn't take control of this game when they could have.
LSU(-8.5) at Auburn: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a solid game for Robby Ashford. The interception in the fourth quarter thwarted a comeback attempt, but Auburn led this game 17-0 at one point. The defense is at least partially responsible. Jayden Daniels had a monumentally bad game and Auburn still lost. He completed just eight-of-20 passes for 80 yards. 80! Forget the fact that he didn't turn it over. If you can't throw the ball downfield and complete it, you're going to have issues in today's game.
Cincinnati(-9.5) at Tulsa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Snakebit by the half! This was a really good performance by the Cincinnati defense. Davis Brin only completed half his passes and threw two interceptions without a touchdown.
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
James Blackman and the special teams ran the Warhawks all the way back to Monroe.
Troy at Western Kentucky(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I underestimated the amount of fight in Troy. This may have been a bit of redemption for Jarret Doege. He transferred from Bowling Green to West Virginia after two years, then left for the high-flying Western Kentucky offense as a grad transfer. He didn't win the job there, then transfers to Troy...where he lost the job to Gunnar Watson. Watson was forced out of the game in the third quarter and Doege proceeded to throw two fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat the team he just left in August. You can't make this stuff up!
(1)Georgia(-28.5) at Missouri: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oh, what could have been for Missouri. They played well enough to win this game and likely should have won. The defense forced turnovers and stopped the run, but too much Stetson Bennett in the fourth quarter did the Tigers in. Did Georgia deserve to be stripped of their number one ranking after this? Absolutely! When Alabama goes on the road against a ranked team and wins with a backup quarterback, there's no question.
(10)North Carolina State at (5)Clemson(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was impressed with the Clemson secondary after last week, but I was also a bit dumbfounded by North Carolina State's unwillingness to test them. Clemson just doubled Thayer Thomas and dared Devin Leary to throw somewhere else. He never could with consistency.
West Virginia at Texas(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
West Virginia didn't even belong on the same field. Texas dominated them in every way possible. The only thing that we can hope for is that CJ Donaldson is okay. The injury didn't look that bad, so I hope we can see him on the field again soon.
Indiana at Nebraska(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The week off did wonders for Nebraska. All of the media firestorm around Scott Frost dating back to last season was a huge issue for this team. This is the first time Nebraska has looked like they were having fun for over a year now. Indiana losing their top two receivers was a problem, but the Nebraska defense did a great job of shutting down the run game in the second half. This is what we were used to seeing from the Nebraska defense last year.
I know Nebraska wants the big name...they always do. However, this should be in the time that they stick with what they have. Considering Trev Alberts was down there on the sidelines, we might see the Nebraska officials make the right decision this time. I will believe it when I see it though.
Virginia at Duke(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I guess you don't need to cover receivers when the offense has no earthly idea what it's doing...
San Jose State(-2.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Wyoming offense may as well be running with cement shoes. They would take a step forward and then proceed to move two back. San Jose State has some explosive receivers (thanks, Nevada!) that are starting to get comfortable with their new quarterback. The Spartans could be dangerous in the Mountain West.
UAB(-9.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
DeWayne McBride had a solid day, but UAB turnovers turned into an outright loss against Rice. That's a tough one to take.
Georgia Tech at (24)Pittsburgh(-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How does a team lose a back like Jahmyr Gibbs and get better? Tech's run game plowed through the Pitt defense. Louisville transfer Hassan Hall racked up 157 on his own and quarterback Jeff Sims piled on 81 more on the ground. I definitely didn't have Pitt's defense being gouged on this week's Bingo card...or Israel Abanikanda only netting ten carries.
Florida International at New Mexico State(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
So one week after the Aggies cover Hawaii despite being winless, they lose outright to FIU as a double-digit favorite. FIU isn't turning a corner. The Aggies are just all over the place defensively right now.
Colorado at Arizona(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a monster game for Jayden de Laura. 484 yards and six touchdowns? He didn't even do that in the Washington State offense! Does that mean the defensive coordinator needs to be fired? I understand that. However, I don't think Karl Dorrell should have been fired over this. Owen McCown showed promise for the Ralphies. Just what upgrade do they think they're going to get with so many jobs open?
Arizona State at (6)USC(-25.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This wasn't a jab at USC. They have the best offense in the college game and it isn't particularly close. The defense still needs work. This is a game where the Trojans had a chance to dominate defensively and they really didn't.
Stanford at (13)Oregon(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game wasn't as close as the final score indicates. Stanford was down 31-3 at the break. A furious effort by the Cardinal in the second half to get me the win fell short, but it never should have come that close. I don't think Stanford would consider firing David Shaw, but this year, who knows? This is a Stanford team that can't get out of their own way. They turn it over WAY too much. This won't be the last time they get blown out this year.
SMU at Central Florida(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Flipping to UCF was one of the only things that I did right this week. SMU kept it close for a half, but it always felt like they were one play away from losing control of this game. It came from Ryan O'Keefe early in the third quarter.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I owe you all an apology. When I have a week like this, I really don't do anyone any good and I will have to spend the rest of the season trying to dig myself out of his hole. I went a disappointing 21-37 this week to put my season total at 128-140. That's not insurmountable, but this ranks as one of my worst weeks in almost a decade of doing this. On the bright side, I'm making a killing on those one-point bets...
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-1 (20-12) = 8
2. 11-15 (54-60) = -12
3. 2-13 (37-39) = -6
4. 3-7 (12-22) = -40
5. 0-1 (5-7) = -10
I lost a total of 58 points this week, making it my second-biggest loss in any one week since 2016. I am now 60 points down on the season and my bank only has 30 points in it. Yikes. I will do better. I have to!
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