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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 13 (November 24, 2022) Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We have a huge 64 games this weekend that starts on Tuesday with some MACtion. Only the Egg Bowl is played on Thanksgiving. Friday this week gives us 14 games with 47 games happening on Saturday. It's the last full weekend of the season! Where did this year go?
What did we learn in Week 12? TCU has something special going on in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma defense finally got mad. So did the South Carolina offense. A couple of teams escaped with playoff hopes still alive. Tennessee did not.
Since we are being thankful, I want to take the opportunity to thank all of you loyal readers. I appreciate all of you and look forward to providing many more articles here at RotoBaller!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 13 (11/24)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
We only have the Egg Bowl for Thanksgiving again this year. There are a lot of Friday games, so stay tuned for that coming soon! We have a great weekend of college football action to be thankful for!
Mississippi State at (20)Mississippi(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has crashed thanks to Arkansas stomping the Rebels in Fayetteville. I like it a lot more here than at the -5.5 it opened at. Give me Ole Miss.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 12. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
I had another good start to the week. Let's hope Saturday didn't blow it. Oklahoma showed up, so I know that I missed the Bedlam pick. Where else did I go astray?
Bowling Green at Toledo(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not really that surprised that Bowling Green won outright. Let's just hope that someone takes them for a bowl. The Falcons have earned it after the way they started the season. Odieu Hiliare is still bulldozing the Toledo secondary!
Ohio(-3.5) at Ball State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm telling you...the Ohio defense is not nearly as bad as they were in September, but they are still being handicapped like it. I thought when Kurtis Rourke went down that this was busted, but CJ Harris held up nicely.
Eastern Michigan at Kent State(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew as soon as Austin Smith went down on the second play of the game that Easter Michigan was going to ruin me again. They may not have if Collin Schlee weren't hurt as well...
Miami(OH) at Northern Illinois(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
NIU was settled at quarterback, but leading rusher Harrison Waylee had just six carries. Jaiden Credle carried the load again, but the Huskies' defense had no answer for Aveon Smith.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I ended up going heavy on WMU and the points when I found out that there was going to be snow most of the game. I didn't change it here though, so I only get one point. Great job by the Central Michigan fans. They built the finest snowman you'll ever see in the stands in this one!
SMU at (21)Tulane(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I forgot that the SMU offense isn't as good as Houston made them look.
South Florida at Tulsa(-13.5): HIT
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Will Gerry Bohanon even get his job back next season? Byrum Brown had 22 consecutive completions in his first career start! Oh...and he ran for 76 yards. The USF defense still needs some work, but the offense is rounding into form.
San Diego State(-14.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the easiest pick of the entire season. This was never a game, nor should it have been.
Navy at (20)Central Florida(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win, but this spread was bogus. I knew John Rhys Plumlee would have problems running on that defense.
Illinois at (3)Michigan(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ugh...why did Illinois have to look so bad last week? I do believe that Michigan was saving Blake Corum for this week. His knee didn't look like it will be a long-term issue, but honestly, Michigan has bigger problems than that. Like not being able to throw the ball downfield.
That was a huge stand by the Michigan defense, but that last drive was full of questions. That wasn't pass interference on Witherspoon. Holding before the ball was thrown, maybe, but Bell interfered with him just as much. The catch by Johnson? Not a catch. It was only five yards and I think Jake Moody would have made it anyway. That guy is money. Still...the officiating on that last drive reeked of favoritism. I have seen very little of that this season, but the Big Ten(14) clearly wanted an undefeated Michigan facing Ohio State. Again, with the way Moody has kicked this season, it may not have mattered. Illinois were the dummies that didn't play to win. They played not to lose. They weren't the only team that did that, right Baylor?
(4)TCU(-2.5) at Baylor: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The cardiac Frogs were at it again, but Baylor still busted a minuscule spread. I was bound to be bitten by TCU sooner or later, I guess. When did Baylor stockpile all of these running backs? Reese is a freshman and Williams is a junior. They will have both of them again next year.
Louisiana at (19)Florida State(-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game was even worse than the final score looked. It was 49-3 at the end of three before Florida State pulled their starters on both sides of the ball.
Massachusetts at Texas A&M(-33.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have bet more on this. I should trust UMass a little more, but their first few years in FBS scarred me. I'm 8-2 when picking UMass this year. That's a lot of potential points missed for not betting more.
Florida(-14.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Believe it or not, Vanderbilt won back-to-back SEC games for the first time since 2018 and beat Florida in Nashville for the first time since 1988. All that they need to become bowl eligible is a win over rival Tennessee. That's a tough ask, but I won't count them out after what I've seen from them lately and with Hendon Hooker out.
Connecticut at Army(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I knew when Army blocked the punt for a touchdown early in the first quarter that they were going to cover this. Michie Stadium was berserk on Saturday!
Virginia Tech at Liberty(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a little bit of revenge for Liberty knocking off Tech a couple of years ago in Blacksburg. It may have taken 11 games, but Virginia Tech finally has their running back in Jalen Holston.
Wisconsin(-10.5) at Nebraska: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was another heartbreaker for Nebraska fans. Even though this was a one-score loss, it still felt a little different. They did lose control a little bit at the end of this game. The wind really helped Wisconsin because it took Casey Thompson and his deep game out of the equation. There's a lot to like about this for Nebraska, but moral victories never count when the fan base is stuck in 1997...
Northwestern at Purdue(-17.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Purdue didn't even score 18, so there's that. This might have been the best game Northwestern has played in North America this year...
Indiana at Michigan State(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Indiana really had no business winning this game. The Hoosiers only had 31 passing yards and 288 yards of offense. Sparty had 540. Special teams decided this game. Indiana had almost 200 yards in kick returns, including one for a touchdown by Jaylin Lucas, and Sparty missed two field goals.
Duke at Pittsburgh(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know why Abanikanda only had 17 carries. Rodney Hammond was going nowhere. Pitt still won, but they weren't going to cover this with the offense in neutral and Jordan Moore catching everything within a five-yard radius. Jalon Calhoun was the Duke receiver that got most of the attention this year, but Moore came up with a monster game in the loss here.
UTSA(-12.5) at Rice: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Roadrunners did most of their work on the ground, which is a bit unusual for them. They had four players with between six and eight carries. Frank Harris had all three rushing touchdowns and two more through the air. He is still the focal point of this offense.
(15)Kansas State(-7.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This had all the makings of a fast and furious Big 12(10) score-fest with 47 combined first-quarter points, but the Kansas State defense locked down the rest of the game.
Washington State(-3.5) at Arizona: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Arizona's passing attack made hay through the air again, but the Cougars' defense proved to be just a little too familiar with Jayden de Laura from last year. They picked him off four times and recovered two fumbles in this game as well. The Wazzu defense shined in this one.
Houston at East Carolina(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a disaster for me. The over was nowhere close as the Pirates only scored three points...at HOME! Where has this Houston defense been all season?
Georgia State at James Madison(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a furious comeback for the Dukes, who still deserve to be in a bowl game. Georgia State exploded for 34 first-half points to make sure the Dukes didn't cover.
(23)Oregon State(7.5) at Arizona State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Oregon State defense will get after you. It makes you wonder where this team would be if Chance Nolan were healthy. Ben Gulbranson has been a great game manager, but that passing game isn't much of a threat.
Boston College at (18)Notre Dame(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This game was too big for youngster Emmett Morehead. Playing in South Bend intimidated him. Benjamin Morrison picked off three passes for the Irish. My only question is: why did they keep throwing toward him?
Old Dominion at Appalachian State(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was counting this as a loss. App State was up 27-0 after three, but two fourth-quarter touchdowns saved this bet.
(1)Georgia(-22.5) at Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kentucky was nowhere near winning this game, but the defense did a great job on the Georgia offense. They just couldn't move the ball on their end either.
(2)Ohio State(-27.5) at Maryland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Buckeyes tested out TreVeyon Henderson for a bit and we saw hide nor hair of Miyan Williams, but Dallan Hayden won the game for the Buckeyes in the second half. They were nowhere near covering though. I should have put more on this one.
Miami(FL) at (9)Clemson(-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Miami really missed not having an experienced quarterback in this one. Jake Garcia was marginally more effective, but it was also in garbage time. The game was way out of hand before he got in there.
(11)Penn State(-19.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Penn State locked down the run game and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. The Rutgers offense couldn't move the ball at all. This was a defensive clinic.
(24)North Carolina State at Louisville(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Malik Cunningham was not fine and Brock Domann wasn't much of a replacement. Jahwar Jordan was the Cardinal that was a thorn in the Wolfpack's collective paw. He ran for 105 yards and a touchdown and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. Ben Finley looked serviceable for the pack, but they couldn't get traction on the Louisville defense.
Texas(-9.5) at Kansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So...yeah...Texas was mad. Jalon Daniels had a solid return, but Bijan Robinson racked up enough yards to run from Lawrence to Kansas City. This was domination by the Texas run game.
South Alabama(-7.5) at Southern Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That half got me. Southern Miss played well enough to win this game, but too many chunk plays in the passing game in the fourth quarter sunk the Eagles.
Louisiana-Monroe at Troy(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kimani Vidal was a monster for the Trojans and so was the defense. Monroe got busted in this one.
Louisiana Tech(-2.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I wouldn't have bet on Calvin Camp being the guy that trashed the Bulldogs, but luckily I didn't have to bet that part to win.
Florida Atlantic(-5.5) at Middle Tennessee State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FAU got exposed in this one. Chase Cunningham had his best game of the season and one that was in line with what he was doing last year.
(25)Cincinnati(-16.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Temple defense did a really good job in this one, but the Bearcats confused freshman E.J. Warner in this one. This is a game he would rather forget.
Iowa at Minnesota(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mohamed Ibrahim went for 263 yards on a really tough defense and still lost. If he only had a quarterback...
Florida International at UTEP(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have watched too many UTEP games to bet more on this. I wish I hadn't. Reynaldo Flores was back at running back in this one and UTEP went nuts with a backup quarterback. FIU is probably the worst four-win team out there.
Western Kentucky at Auburn(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
At this point, if Auburn doesn't at least give Carnell Williams an interview and a fair shot at this job, they're idiots. This team is changed and it's mostly because of his energy.
Arkansas State at Texas State(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bobcats were fortunate to escape with a win here.
Georgia Tech at (13)North Carolina(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I didn't expect an outright win for the Wreck, but they really flustered Drake Maye in this one. That's what happens when ESPN starts hyping up a freshman for Heisman. Shut up and let them play already!
Stanford at California(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is going to be a tough one to swallow for Stanford. Cal scored 21 of their 27 points in the final stanza to steal the Axe. In true wild fashion, Cal again scored on a wild play that had two fumbles. That swung the momentum to the Bears.
Marshall(-4.5) at Georgia Southern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It turns out that all Marshall needed was a little Cam Fancher in their lives.
(5)Tennessee(-21.5) at South Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This game was out of hand long before Hendon Hooker got hurt. The Cocks scored a touchdown on every first-half drive. Spencer Rattler had the game of his life. When the dust settled, the Gamecocks had an upset for the ages and should quash all the talk of two SEC teams making the playoff. A one-loss Ohio State or Michigan should still be above LSU unless one side gets blown out. I'm not talking 17 points...I'm talking 35 or more.
Texas Tech at Iowa State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Xavier Hutchinson made one of the best catches you'll ever see in a losing effort here. Tech had to work for their bowl eligibility in this one.
Boise State(-13.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Boise run defense got gashed again by Titus Swen. You know...the guy that nearly lost his job earlier this month. Taylen Green still pulled out the win for the Broncos, but I lost interest in this one early. My bet was sunk.
(14)Mississippi(-2.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ole Miss piled on 21 garbage points (of their 27 total) in the fourth quarter when they were down 42-6. This game was much worse for the Rebels than it looked. Raheim Sanders destroyed this defense for 232 yards and three touchdowns.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still don't know if Spencer Sanders was fully healthy. I definitely liked what I saw from the offense in the first quarter and the defense overall. Where has this been all season? The last game in which the defense looked this good was against Nebraska.
New Mexico State at Missouri(-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was just cardio for Missouri. And the offense finally got a chance to feel good about themselves. That hasn't happened much this year.
(7)USC(-2.5) at (16)UCLA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The defenses looked good for the first 15 minutes or so, then all offense broke loose. UCLA managed to blow a 14-point lead and ended up trading blows from behind until the end. This is what USC fans envisioned Caleb Williams to Jordan Addison looking like. It only took 11 weeks for it to come to fruition.
Syracuse at Wake Forest(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Syracuse hung around since Wake likes to give up points, but it was vintage Sam Hartman in this one. He threw four touchdowns without an interception and racked up 331 yards.
UAB at (6)LSU(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess we really can't consider this a statement for LSU, but most of the rest of the SEC played cupcakes and the Tigers played a pretty good UAB team. They didn't look it here. Malik Nabers has evolved into the go-to receiver that LSU needs.
Colorado at (17)Washington(-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Michael Penix had his worst passing day of the season with only 229 yards. That's because the Huskies ran for 280. Colorado is where passing offenses go to die...or to get the week off.
Colorado State at Air Force(-21.5): HIT
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Colorado State defense did a solid job in this one, but Air Force really isn't built to cover that type of spread. The Rams will be good at some point, but it has been a rough season in Fort Collins his year.
San Jose State at Utah State(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chevan Cordeiro did well in a losing effort, but the Spartans' inability to stop Calvin Tyler ended up deciding this game. This was everything you want in a Mountain West matchup to top off your college football Saturday.
(10)Utah(-2.5) at (12)Oregon: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I didn't feel like this would be a defensive battle, but that's what we got. It was a great game nonetheless, and that's all that we really wanted, right? We wanted to see if Oregon could win a game like this heading into the Civil War. We got our answer.
Fresno State(-22.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There wasn't much that Nevada could do right in this game, but that's nothing new. There was another Nate Cox sighting for the Pack. In this game, he was better than Shane Illingworth. The quarterback carousel continues for Nevada, but this isn't the carousel that you're used to. All of the horses are rusted and the saddles are broken. Each contains a different level of risk.
UNLV(-10.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
No moral victory here! Hawaii got the outright win behind Brayden Schager's best game for Hawaii. He was mostly efficient and didn't turn the ball over. That's what Hawaii has been trying to get from him all season long.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I finally got my head above water for a week, but I didn't gain much ground. I finished 32-29 with the Buffalo-Akron game marked as incomplete. That leaves me at 312-347 on the season. I have a lot of ground to make up and almost no time to do it.
I had high hopes after a good start to the week, but the middle of Saturday wasn't kind to me. TCU not covering for me for the first time in over a month was my only max-bet miss.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 7-2 (49-33) = 16
2. 10-13 (127-146) = -38
3. 11-10 (93-102) = -27
4. 2-3 (29-44) = -60
5. 2-1 (14-22) = -40
The three points I gained didn't help much considering I was a blasphemous 152 points down on the season coming into this. -149 doesn't look any better, really. My piggy bank is empty and I still owe it 59 points. I need a big rivalry week and bowl season to finish with a respectable mark.
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