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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 12 (November 17-18, 2022) Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
There are a few less games this week with the SEC partaking in their annual "cupcake Saturday" tradition. Some are still playing FBS teams. Some are playing Clarksville, Tennessee's own Austin Peay State University. I don't care who is on the other side of that, I'm not picking it. Even I have boundaries.
What did we learn in Week 11? TCU is better than everyone thinks, except for maybe Sonny Dykes and Max Duggan. Looking ahead is still a very real thing. Just ask UCLA. If no one shows up to a home game, what incentive do you have to play well? Maybe we were wrong about the Arkansas defense. Cowbells are still very annoying. There is a great chasm between the top and bottom of the Big Ten(14). There isn't much of a middle this year.
My 3-0 start on Tuesday quickly went by the wayside as I missed all of the Thursday and Friday games after a 4-2 start to the week with MACtion on Tuesday and Wednesday. It all rides on Saturday! I'm afraid to look...I know I missed the Oklahoma and Nebraska games that I listened to on the road on the way home.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 12 (11/17 - 11/18)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
SMU at (21)Tulane(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How much do I believe in the SMU defense? UCF provided a blueprint to ride the Wave last week, but I'm not sure SMU can execute it. Tanner Mordecai isn't that mobile and the SMU defense doesn't get a lot of takeaways. Still, I don't like that half. Enough that I'm willing to take the Ponies on the road. Give me SMU.
South Florida at Tulsa(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. USF looked good for a half last week against a SMU team that is much better than Tulsa. I'm not sure Tulsa is capable of blowing anyone out right now. Give me the Bulls.
San Diego State(-14.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Did you see New Mexico last week? How about SDSU? I'm not sure that Vegas saw either of them! Aztecs win BIG! I'm taking some points back in this one!
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 10. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
I was just hoping to keep my head above water this week, but I saw a handful of bad beats, so I'm not all that optimistic about it.
Eastern Michigan(-7.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I finally won an Eastern Michigan bet! Too bad it was only one point, but I figured for sure this was toast when D.J. Irons went down. I know Akron is 1-9, but this was a good showing.
Ohio(-1.5) at Miami(OH): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ohio proved without a doubt that they are the best team in the MAC. The improvement the defense has made over the last month or so is astounding.
Ball State at Toledo(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
One week after setting a career-high in rushing yards, Carson Steele breaks it. Now, about the quarterback...
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
NIU felt it slipping away and put in Justin Lynch. He channeled his older brother and brought the Huskies back for the win without completing a pass. I want to see if the Huskies are going to let Jaiden Credle run wild again or if they will switch back to Harrison Waylee with him healthy.
Buffalo at Central Michigan(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bert Emanuel Jr.'s 293 rushing yards were the most by a FBS quarterback since 2017...and he's a true freshman that split snaps with Daniel Richardson. Jase Bauer, we hardly knew ya.
Kent State(-2.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So much for Bowling Green's improvement. This is the kind of game that can set development back a couple of months. Kent needs to win out to go bowling, and they certainly looked like it's possible in this game.
Tulsa at Memphis(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It has been a long time since I have seen the Memphis defense shut down anyone. Tulsa is lost without Davis Brin. He clearly was not healthy enough to make an impact on this game. What good are talented receivers if they can't get the ball to them?
Georgia Southern at Louisiana(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Cajuns committed to stopping the run and didn't care how many yards Kyle Vantrease threw for. That strategy worked as the Cajuns dominated the ground on their side to open up the passing game.
East Carolina at Cincinnati(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was expecting a good game and I got it. Cincinnati was unable to get any traction on the ECU defense in the second half and was fortunate to win this game at all.
Colorado at (8)USC(-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Things were looking good for my Colorado bet until Travis Dye went down in the second quarter. That rallied the Trojans and they never looked back.
Fresno State(-9.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Boy, that sure looked like a fumble that would have ended the UNLV drive that ended up tying the game in the fourth quarter. There went my cover!
Indiana at (2)Ohio State(-39.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know why we are even surprised by the Ohio State offense anymore. They covered this and barely broke a sweat doing so.
Missouri at (6)Tennessee(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I talk up Missouri's defense and lower the bet because of it. They proceed to show me up by allowing Tennessee to set a school record for total yardage. This Tennessee offense is scary!
(7)LSU(-3.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I went a little too hog wild on this one once I found out K.J. Jefferson wasn't playing. Apparently, LSU didn't get the memo. They really should have lost this game, but Harold Perkins had other ideas. It's rare when a defensive player puts the team on their back, but that is exactly what Perkins did.
(20)Notre Dame(-16.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I wrote this one off with that last touchdown by the Irish just before halftime. I'm glad that I still keep the recording going when I switch games. I didn't think Navy had it in them to put in a fourth quarter like they did.
Purdue at (21)Illinois(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Aidan O'Connell is a good quarterback on an otherwise mediocre team with the possible exception of Devin Mockobee. As for Illinois...I just don't know. The defense hasn't tested well in the last couple of weeks. Maybe they just played some really bad offenses in October...
Vanderbilt at (24)Kentucky(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win from Vandy, especially on the road, but this is something that has been brewing for a while. Vanderbilt has made huge strides this year and may no longer be at the bottom of the SEC. Clark Lea has a good thing going there.
Oklahoma(-7.5) at West Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I guess by default Oklahoma is now the worst team in the conference. I won't argue that. We have the worst record through ten games since 1998 and may not make a bowl this year. The defense is still a sieve. That said, I think we win and cover if J.T. Daniels would have been left in the game. When they took him out, I knew we were in trouble.
Liberty(-13.5) at Connecticut: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That's what I get for betting against UConn. If Liberty were at full strength, it might have been a different story. The loss of Dae Dae Hunter was big, but honestly, the UConn offense earned this. The Huskies are now bowl eligible! Jim Mora Jr. might be the coach of the year!
Rutgers at Michigan State(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I got lucky with this one. Rutgers was able to punch one in inside of two minutes. Kyle Monangai, where have you been all season? I'm looking forward to watching him a couple more times this year.
Virginia Tech at Duke(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I finally back Tech and the offense falls asleep against a defense that is statistically in the bottom five of the ACC.
Pittsburgh(-9.5) at Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Pitt was up 14-0 before the offense took the field. Both of Virginia's first two plays from scrimmage were interception returns for touchdowns. You can't make up just how bad that offense has been this year.
SMU(-17.5) at South Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USF tied this at the half, so I was really worried. SMU came out swinging in the second half. USF is getting better, but they can't seem to put a full game together. Maybe having Gerry Bohanon for (hopefully) a full season will help next year, but the problems seem to be a little deeper than that. I can't help but feel that Brian Battie is being wasted on this team.
Louisiana-Monroe at Georgia State(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I wasn't expecting an outright win here. Not with Danny Grainger and James Thrash still on the field for the Panthers. The Warhawks keep their bowl dreams alive with two games left.
James Madison(-7.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still think Todd Centeio and James Madison have earned a shot at a bowl game. The Dukes will be better than a handful of teams that make the postseason in FBS.
Rice at Western Kentucky(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Rice is improving, but that Western Kentucky offense is still really good.
Massachusetts at Arkansas State(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have bet more on this. UMass has been so bad for so long that I didn't trust it. The Minutemen came really close to a FBS win with a furious fourth quarter. I think they get over the hump at some point, but it likely won't be this year with Texas A&M and Army on the schedule.
Temple at Houston(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We knew this was coming at some point. E.J. Warner is starting to get comfortable. He threw for 486 yards on that Houston defense (I use that term loosely). I'll call it now: Temple is going bowling in 2023! For now, moral victories still count.
Nebraska at (3)Michigan(-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ugh...that stupid half. I don't think Michigan covers this if Casey Thompson plays. His backups still couldn't pick Trey Palmer out of a lineup. How you can't find the most explosive player on your team as a quarterback is beyond me...
(9)Alabama(-11.5) at (11)Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Saban may not lose to assistants, but that doesn't mean that the games can't be entertaining. Alabama's defense got shown up a few times in this game, but they showed up when it really mattered: in the fourth quarter. The Tide blanked Ole Miss in the final stanza.
Louisville at (10)Clemson(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Malik Cunningham not being at full strength really hurt the Cardinals. The defense had trouble stopping the run and couldn't get the multiple turnovers they would have needed to pull the upset.
Maryland at (14)Penn State(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was a poor game for Sean Clifford (again), but Penn State's newfound rushing attack and dominant defense spelled the end for the Turtles.
Boston College at (16)North Carolina State(-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was off to a great start with two early touchdowns by the Pack, but Emmett Morehead had other ideas. Phil Jurkovec's time is up on Chestnut Hill. Morehad should have taken the job for good in this game. The poise he showed to lead the team back from down 14 shouldn't be ignored.
(22)Central Florida at (17)Tulane(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
John Rhys Plumlee didn't do much through the air, but he couldn't be stopped on the ground. The UCF defense jumped on a couple of timely fumbles and never looked back.
Arizona State at Washington State(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Another busted half. It should have been much worse. Wazzu put up 28 in the first half behind Nokia Watson's three touchdowns on the ground, but didn't score in the second half. If Arizona State had converted just one of those three two-point attempts, they would have pulled through for me.
Iowa State(-1.5) at Oklahoma State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pokes were stagnant and felt the season was on the line, so they called in Spencer Sanders in the second half even though he clearly isn't 100% yet. Still, Sanders at 70% is a lot better than most. Technically, this was a hit since the Pokes came back and won. However, I'll still take the miss since none of us knew Sanders would play when the betting windows closed.
Army at Troy(-8.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have known better given the state of the Troy offense. That defense is very good, but the offense doesn't move the ball consistently enough to rely on.
Wisconsin at Iowa(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In the battle for worst starting QB on a Power 5 team, Graham Mertz convincingly took the title in this one. Spencer Petras was nothing special, but he didn't make back-breaking mistakes either. Iowa is not offended by having to punt the ball. They know who they are, and that's not always a bad thing.
Northwestern at Minnesota(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Mohamed Ibrahim solidified his case for best back in college football right now. Minnesota can't throw the ball to save their souls. He runs against a stacked box on nearly every play and is still taking 150+ yards per game.
Miami(FL) at Georgia Tech(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hurricanes didn't put much on the shoulders of Jacurri Brown, but he convincingly handled what they did give him. Three of his 19 pass attempts went for touchdowns and he didn't turn the ball over. He also picked up 87 yards on the ground. That's a success against a solid D like the Bees.
New Mexico at Air Force(-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. New Mexico is a total disaster...
Appalachian State at Marshall(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cam Fancher proved me wrong. Marshall could, and did, throw to win.
Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I wish I could say this is the last time that a half-point screwed me this week, but it wasn't. At least a couple of these were pushes on betting sites...
Louisiana Tech at UTSA(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
At least I know that the Roadrunners won't fail me. Half of their bench players scored in this one too!
North Texas at UAB(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
DeWayne McBride ran for another 120 yards and didn't even lead the team in rushing! That's how well UAB was running the ball in this one. It was back to earth for Austin Aune.
South Carolina at Florida(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I deserve to look foolish for betting on Spencer Rattler...
Texas State at South Alabama(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Another loss, another one by a half. I knew better than to bet against South Alabama though. The Jags are cooking with gas right now.
(1)Georgia(-16.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Leaches hung around long enough to make me sweat this, but in the end, Georgia is just too good.
(25)Washington at (6)Oregon(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So...the Ducks lose a rivalry game at Autzen. We all saw that coming, yeah? What we didn't see coming? Washington leading the country in passing.
(19)Kansas State at Baylor(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Adrian Martinez leaves the game with an injury, and Will Howard comes in and torches the Bears. Same result, different opponent. Will Howard is looking like a special player, which should come as quite a shock if you've watched him play at all in the prior two seasons.
Kansas at Texas Tech(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Jayhawks toyed with us about Jalon Daniels, but they ultimately ended up holding him out again. Jason Bean still had a good game, as did Devin Neal. Tech put Tyler Shough back in, and he was a problem for the Jayhawks.
Wyoming(-8.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a game that the Rams should have won. The Colorado State defense has been a force all season. If the offense catches up, look out!
Florida Atlantic(-15.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know...if FIU had worn those sleek uniforms again, they may not have lost to their rival by 45 points. Just saying...
(4)TCU at (18)Texas(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This game wasn't as close as the score indicated. This TCU defense was dominant from the opening kickoff. Texas's defense stood strong for a while, but TCU finally wore them down by late in the third quarter.
(15)North Carolina at Wake Forest(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was a great game. The Tarheels looked like they were going to run off with this, then Sam Hartman caught fire in the second quarter. That wayward interception in the fourth quarter from Hartman has to sting after what happened against Louisville. Will that stick with him again? I have given the Tarheels defense some grief this year, but they really stepped up and made some plays in that fourth quarter.
Texas A&M at Auburn(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I know that Deion Sanders is the guy that Auburn fans want, but you don't need him! Carnell Williams is everything you want in a coach. This team has played hard for him. They rally behind his excitement. This was a great performance by the Auburn defense. A&M didn't even score until the fourth quarter.
Southern Mississippi at Coastal Carolina(-4.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This wasn't the fault of the CCU offense. They still moved the ball and still got the win. We are finally getting to see what Southern Miss sees in Trey Lowe. This was a great performance on the road, but he came up just a bit short.
(23)Florida State(-7.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have watched enough of Syracuse this year to be completely shocked by what the Florida State offense was able to do. Jordan Travis had more touchdown passes (three) than incompletions (two). The loss didn't shock me. Getting blown out in the Loud House sure did!
California at Oregon State(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That Cal offense was a total disaster. Oregon State dominated all three facets of this game.
Stanford at (13)Utah(-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Earlier in the season, I never would have guessed Utah could cover a spread like this. This might be the most complete game the Utes have played this season. That said, it's easy to look like that against the wreck that is Stanford.
Arizona at (12)UCLA(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Zach Charbonnet tramples Arizona and the Bruins still lose. This might be the best game that we have seen from Jayden de Laura. It's about time they remembered that Jacob Cowing transferred in!
Boise State(-20.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have trusted this more. I know how bad Nevada is, no matter who is starting at quarterback.
San Jose State(-2.5) at San Diego State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
What does it say for San Diego State's coaching staff that Jalen Mayden was a starting safety on this team and they thought Braxton Burmeister should be their starting quarterback? If the Aztecs started the season with Mayden under center, they might have nine wins by now...
Utah State(-10.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Moral victories still count for Timmy Chang and the Warriors. They also still bust my spreads...
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. Just when I think things can't get worse, I go 27-37 on the week. That puts my season total at 280-318. That pretty much ruins my chances of getting back to .500 with only two full weeks, championship week, and the bowls left.
Since I was ten down without the point bets, I knew this would be bad. Esepcially when I considered that I was 2-6 on four and five-point bets and was just 7-12 on the threes.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-4 (42-31) = 11
2. 14-15 (117-133) = -32
3. 7-12 (82-92) = -30
4. 1-4 (27-41) = -56
5. 1-2 (12-21) = -45
I was .500 or worse on every point wager this week. I lost another 34 points this week to put me a blasphemous 152 points down on the season. My piggy bank is empty and I owe it 62 points. It's hard to be optimistic right now, but I'll keep plugging along. This week will be better. It can't really get worse... Of course, I thought the same thing last week.
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