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We have a staggering 64 games in Week 11, with 11 of them happening before Saturday. Whatever voodoo witchcraft powers had to be involved to make this happen, thank you!
What did we learn in Week 10? There is more parity in the Big 12(10) than in any other conference. The tight end is making a comeback in the college game. Sometimes switching quarterbacks can make really bad offenses look good again. Sometimes it just takes a game against the Northwestern "defense."
I dug myself another hole before Saturday, but hopefully, I was able to get out of this one. On with the show!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 11 (11/11)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
East Carolina at Cincinnati(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The bottom has fallen out of this one. Cinci was favored by 10.5 when it opened. My issue is that I don't know if I trust ECU on the road. I'm taking the Bearcats for anything under a touchdown.
Colorado at (8)USC(-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is actually rising. Why? Yes, the USC offense is really good, but this seems like a lot. I'm taking the Ralphies, but I don't trust them.
Fresno State(-9.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is way too low! Did you guys see what Jake Haener did on the islands last week? Shutting down an average San Diego State offense is one thing. Stopping Frenso is completely different.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 10. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
I was just hoping to keep my head above water this week, but I saw a handful of bad beats, so I'm not all that optimistic about it.
Ball State at Kent State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Carson Steele ran wild on the Flashes and the Kent couldn't stop John Paddock either. It was an offensive clinic by the Cardinals. Well, as much of one as can be with the team only scoring 27 points...
Buffalo(-2.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sieh Bangura was out for Ohio, but Kurtis Rourke picked up the slack and then some.
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Daniel Richardson didn't lose his job, but he is certainly splitting it. It is working well for CMU right now. Having Daniel Richardson back doesn't hurt, even if he isn't at 100%.
Western Michigan at Bowling Green(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugh...that stupid half. This is a big win for Bowling Green, and it sure felt like they won by more than four points...
UTEP at Rice(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UTEP losing Gavin Hardison in this game hurt a lot, but I don't know that it would have affected the outcome of the game. T.J. McMahon picked them apart.
Appalachian State(-2.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The stable of running backs for the Mountaineers didn't do a whole lot because none of them ever got hot. Grayson McCall sure did though...
Massachusetts at Connecticut(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I had to sweat this one thanks to the play of Brady Olson. UMass finally has a quarterback that can help move the ball instead of dead weight. Meanwhile, this UConn team is standing on the cusp of bowl eligibility. They have made huge strides under Jim Mora Jr.
Duke(-9.5) at Boston College: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was ready to write this off as a loss until Emmett Morehead got comfortable in this offense in the second half. He played well enough to keep the job, but I don't see BC moving off of Jurkovic. They will hold him out until he is completely healed, however.
(23)Oregon State at Washington(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hosed by two halves before Saturday. That's not a good sign. Was it the Oregon State defense that finally held Michael Penix under 300 yards (he still wound up with 298) or was it the gale-force winds? I'll go with the latter.
Air Force(-7.5) vs. Army at Arlington, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a good old-fashioned service academy game. I'm glad I bet the under on this to break even.
(2)Ohio State(-38.5) at Northwestern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a really nice performance by a beleaguered Northwestern defense. Before we go calling Ohio State a bunch of posers for only scoring 21 points, we at least have to acknowledge that the Buckeyes have scored at least 20 points in an FBS-record 70 consecutive games...and the 70th game was in the snow.
Texas Tech at (7)TCU(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
TCU comes from behind in the fourth quarter again. TCU wins again. The cardiac Toads are taking the Big 12(10) by storm thanks to Max Duggan and the world-class sprinters on that team.
(17)North Carolina(-7.5) at Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Virginia offense looked better, but most offenses look better against the Tarheels. We will see if it can carry past this week.
(19)Tulane(-7.5) at Tulsa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Green Wave fans have visions of Shaun King dancing in their heads. This team is a veteran squad and solid on both sides of the ball.
Kentucky(-1.5) at Missouri: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
One of these days, the Missouri offense will catch up. The defense is fine and then some...
Florida at Texas A&M(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
A&M had a flu outbreak that claimed Conner Weigman. I ghosted this bet when Weigman wasn't out there warming up, but I didn't get back here to change it, so I take the L.
Minnesota(-15.5) at Nebraska: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nebraska did a great job smothering Mohamed Ibrahim. Sure, he topped 100 yards for the 18th consecutive game, but his longest rush was just 11 yards. Nebraska sold out to stop the run, and in retro fashion, Tanner Morgan couldn't make them pay for it before he got hurt. Athan Kaliakmanis wasn't much better for the Gophers. Nebraska turned to Logan Smothers, who was somewhat more successful than Chubba Purdy, but they really missed Casey Thompson in this one.
Iowa at Purdue(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Spencer Petras is proof that Iowa just needs a guy who doesn't turn the ball over to win games. The defense is that good.
Maryland at Wisconsin(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
More poor weather bogs down an otherwise solid offense. This slog heavily favored the Badgers.
Western Kentucky(-15.5) at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was snowed by Charlotte's good showing last week as well. They were nowhere near good here...
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Georgia Tech didn't have Jordan Sims back and still beat the Hokies on the road.
South Florida(-3.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It wasn't a bad game for Katravis Marsh, but it certainly was for the USF defense. E.J. Warner threw for 344 and Edward Saydee went nuts with 265 rushing yards on the Bulls.
Marshall(-2.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I tout the Monarchs and they get shut out. That's par for the season...
Baylor at Oklahoma(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Craig Williams destroyed the Sooners on the ground. That's right...the Bears didn't even really have to use Richard Reese. The silver lining is that we didn't allow 50 points, but the offense can't score enough to keep up with what the defense gives up. The game shouldn't have been this close.
Georgia State at Southern Mississippi(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Panthers figured out how to stop Gore and the Eagles sunk like the Titanic.
Middle Tennessee State(-2.5) at Louisiana Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yes, the Bulldogs missed Parker McNeil. The offense is back!
(1)Tennessee at (3)Georgia(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Vols finally did me dirty. The offense could get nothing going against the Bulldog defense. This didn't feel like a 14-point game. It felt much worse!
(8)Oregon(-31.5) at Colorado: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bo Nix scored another five touchdowns. Are we even surprised anymore?
(15)Penn State(-13.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Indiana is in the running for the worst team in the Big Ten(14) right now.
Michigan State at (16)Illinois(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Of all the teams on the schedule for the Illini, this is the one team I didn't see busting that defense. Another great game from Chase Brown was wasted here.
(18)Oklahoma State at Kansas(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Neither Sanders nor Daniels played. Jason Bean is by far the better backup, but we knew that already. The Pokes are derailed and Kansas is going bowling! They didn't waste the great start after all!
(20)Syracuse at Pittsburgh(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Syracuse defense got back on track in this one. They bordered on dominant.
(25)Central Florida(-3.5) at Memphis: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mikey Keene is not a huge step down for UCF. Memphis has now lost four straight for the first time since 2013. It kind of gives you an appreciation for how good they have been recently.
Washington State(-4.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I expected the Washington State win. I did not expect the Washington State blowout.
West Virginia at Iowa State(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Just when I think J.T. Daniels can't get any worse, he runs into a good defense...
New Mexico at Utah State(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
New Mexico is the poor man's Iowa: Bad offense...well...the Lobos have a bad defense too. Nevermind...
UTSA at UAB(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This might have been the best game of the week, but you sure had to jump through some hoops to find it. The nation's leading rusher was doing the nation's leading rusher things. The bad news is that Frank Harris and the UTSA offense are special.
Liberty at Arkansas(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's about time that we give that Liberty defense some respect. They have only allowed 113 points in the last five games. I expected Liberty to hang around, but I didn't expect them to win outright.
Navy at Cincinnati(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew that line was way too high. I also knew that Navy had no real chance to win this game.
South Alabama(-3.5) at Georgia Southern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That La'Damian Webb is something, isn't he? People easily forget how he was supposed to be the next big thing at Florida State. He is finally showing off all that talent.
Florida International at North Texas(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That North Texas offense is a finely-tuned machine right now. The difference is that this year they have a defense to help the offense out.
Troy(-3.5) at Louisiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took a 16-point fourth quarter for the Trojans to pull this out, but they still came through.
Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Warhawks got the win but didn't cover. That's right...they won by one point to blow this spread.
(6)Alabama(-13.5) at (10)LSU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was another spot where I didn't expect the outright win, but I knew the line was out of whack. Brian Kelly is already a folk hero in Red Stick and the guy has only been there for 10 months...
(24)Texas(-2.5) at Kansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
You can put Bijan Robinson carving up the K-State defense as one of the things that I didn't expect to see. This was also a much better road start for Quinn Ewers. There's a lot to be excited about in Austin in the near future.
BYU at Boise State(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is the Boise defense that showed up earlier in the season. The only difference is that the offense can hang around now. Jaren Hall looked pretty healthy here, didn't he?
UNLV at San Diego State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is by far the best game that the UNLV defense has played this season.
Houston at SMU(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the scores of football games. These two combined for 140 points in regulation, a new FBS record. Tanner Mordecai threw for a school-record nine touchdown passes and added another on the ground just because he could. I feel sorry for you if you missed this one. What a game!!
(4)Clemson(-3.5) at Notre Dame: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I did expect a Clemson loss coming from somewhere because the team is slowly slipping back into old habits. However, I didn't think this would be the place.
(5)Michigan(-25.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rutgers had a big 3rd-and-14 conversion called back by penalty and they completely fell apart afterward. This is a game in which they were leading at the half!
Arizona at (14)Utah(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I get the feeling that Utah could have won this game even if Cam Rising wasn't playing. This was all on the Utah defense.
Auburn at Mississippi State(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This had the looks of a laugher and a win for me at the half. Then Auburn rallied. Did you get ahold of Cadillac Williams on the Auburn sidelines? Tell me that guy doesn't love his job, even if it isn't permanent.
South Carolina(-6.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
South Carolina came out and made a statement here. This is one of the better games that you'll see Spencer Rattler play.
James Madison at Louisville(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Don't get caught up in the hype. This is a solid James Madison team that Louisville just dropped the hammer on. They are a different team with a healthy Malik Cunningham running the show.
Florida State(-7.5) at Miami(FL): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Most fans have reasonable expectations when it comes to new coaches and new coaching staffs. However, they are less understanding when their team gets blown out in rivalry games. I do wonder how long that leash is for Mario Cristobal after many poor performances this year.
(21)Wake Forest(-3.5) at (22)North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As good as Devin Leary has been for the Wolfpack, he may not have a job to come back to next year with the way MJ Morris is playing...
California at (9)USC(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That USC defense is winning me a lot of bets. It's like someone cheating to stack the deck to shoot the moon in Pitch without the 2. USC spent all that money for the best offense they could lure out there, but they completely ignored the defense.
(12)UCLA(-10.5) at Arizona State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
No Charbonnet, no problem...until it came time for UCLA to salt the game away. Trenton Bourguet led a nice comeback effort that fell just short.
Colorado State at San Jose State(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tory Horton can do a lot of good things when he has a decent quarterback throwing him the ball. The Rams aren't an automatic cover anymore.
Hawaii at Fresno State(-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jake Haener certainly turned some heads back toward him with this performance.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I hit half of my bets, going 30-30 on the week. I didn't lose any ground, but I didn't make up any either. I still sit at a disappointing 253-281 on the season.
I missed eight of my 11 four and five-point bets. I know I lost some more points this week...
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-5 (38-27) = 11
2. 12-14 (103-118) = -30
3. 11-4 (75-80) = -15
4. 1-3 (26-37) = -44
5. 2-4 (11-19) = -40
I did well in the mid-range, but the missed bets at the top hurt. I lost another two points this week to put me a blasphemous 118 points down on the season. My piggy bank is empty and I owe it 28 points. It's hard to be optimistic right now, but I'll keep plugging along. This week will be better. It can't really get worse...
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