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We have our biggest betting week of the year so far in Week 4, and Saturday will be one of the largest betting days of the year in terms of number of games to bet on. We have 53 of those puppies today. If you're looking beyond the obvious touts, I'll pick all 53 of them. Don't worry. I keep track of how I do.Week 3 was mostly a disaster, but I'm still 71-76 on the season. It could be worse.
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience. I've been waiting to bring this college football betting series over to RotoBaller since I started here back in February, so let's get to this!
Due to the lack of accurate spreads on FCS vs. FBS games, I won't make official picks on those. They aren't on the board at most Vegas casinos anyway (if you absolutely INSIST on betting these, you can come into the premium chat at Rotoballer and I will try to answer). Why wont I bet those? Ask Washington, Colorado State, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Tulsa, Florida State, Arizona, Texas State, and Ohio. Those ten notches are now on FCS bedposts. A special shoutout goes to Vandy and Colorado State, who didn't just lose. They got smoked by more than 20 points!
I need to rebound from a rough week 3. I had a lot of low bets last week, which means I didn't have confidence in a lot of those games. I'm digging deeper this week to make sure I get out of the hole. And lets face it, after three weeks we know a lot more than we did after two weeks. It's a process.
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(2)Georgia(-35.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yikes. The Bulldogs didn't cover this against South Carolina, but the Gamecocks are still better than Vandy, especially with Re'Mahn Davis out. Give me Georgia, but I'm lowering the bet in case they get bored.
(12)Notre Dame vs. (18)Wisconsin(-6.5) at Chicago
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Interesting. I was expecting the Irish to be favored so I could hammer the Wisconsin side. Now I'm really not sure. The Irish have been living dangerously, but I don't think the Badgers are a touchdown better, especially in what is essentially a road game. I'm not sure the Irish win, but I'm fairly certain they wont lose by a touchdown. Give me Notre Dame and the points.
LSU(-2.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I get it. The Tigers are super pissed about K.J. Costello setting records against them last year. That said, what has LSU done to deserve being favored? Besides, those cowbells are loud! Max Johnson dealt with noise in L.A., but this is a whole new level. I still like the Bulldogs outright.
Missouri(-1.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If Phil Jurkovec was still under center, then maybe. Boston College can't throw well with Dennis Grosel and Pat Garwo isn't enough to keep the Eagles in this. Missouri by double digits.
Florida International at Central Michigan(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yuck. I was hoping the line wouldn't be that high, but FIU almost lost to a Texas State team that flamed out against Incarnate Word. Give me the Chippewas at home.
Bowling Green at Minnesota(-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, I suppose the Gophers almost covered this in Boulder. It should be easy money against a lesser team at home, right? Give me Goldy.
Ohio at Northwestern(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really don't think Northwestern is more than two touchdowns better than anyone right now. Give me the Bobcats, but there's no way I would bet this.
SMU at TCU(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this seems high for a rivalry. Beating Cal gets you this much respect? I don't think so. I'll say the Ponies keep it within a touchdown. The Iron Skillet is at stake!
Texas Tech at Texas(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This opened at -13.5 and it's anywhere from 7 to 10.5 now, so shop around. Texas is getting a lot of grief for losing to a good Arkansas team in Fayetteville. I'm good with Texas for anything under 10 right now. Texas is 10-2 against Tech since Michael Crabtree stole the 2008 meeting. Both of those losses came in Austin, for what it's worth.
Miami(OH) at Army(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. The Redhawks defense has played well this year with the exception of the Cincinnati game, but when was the last time they tried to stop an option? Exactly. Give me Army.
Boise State(-9.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How's this for getting some national exposure? This is normally a game that would start at 9pm eastern. They moved it to noon! This feels like a trap for Boise. That was a rough loss to Oklahoma State and the Aggies pulled off a big win against Air Force. This feels like too many. I'll take the Aggies to keep it within single digits.
Massachusetts at (17)Coastal Carolina(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, that's a ton of points. CCU's offense hasn't looked capable of covering something like this, but UMass is a special kind of bad. Give me the mullets.
San Jose State at Western Michigan(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line opened even, and I understand why. The Spartans were a comedy of errors on the islands. Even if half those drops are caught, the Spartans win (and cover) easily. I'll take SJSU, especially since the Broncos wont have Tim Lester on the sidelines.
Toledo(-4.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rockets just got steamrolled on their own field by Colorado State. This line feels backwards. Ball State has a good quarterback and very good receivers. I'll take the Letterman's straight up!
Texas State at Eastern Michigan(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Grab this before it goes over 7 (and it will). Give me the Eagles.
Washington State at Utah(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high, especially with a budding quarterback controversy for the Utes. Yeah, the Cougs will be reeling after blowing a 14 point lead at home to USC, but that's entirely different. Utah isn't close to the same team they were last year. Give me the Cougars, unless they do something stupid like start Jarrett Guarantano.
Colorado State at (5)Iowa(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I learned my lesson last week. It will be a methodical beatdown, and Iowa will end up covering by a few points. Give me the Hawkeyes.
(7)Texas A&M(-4.5) vs. (16)Arkansas at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Honestly, Arkansas has looked like the better team. I still don't trust Zach Calzada. This is going to be an ugly game. Give me Arkansas. They may not win, but this is going to stay really close.
(9)Clemson(-10.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is down to 10 in most places and it should be. This Clemson offense is a mess right now. The defense is a very good unit, but even if they shut out the Wolfpack, I'm not sure Clemson covers this. Give me NC State.
(14)Iowa State(-7.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Whatever. I'm not scared of this Baylor defense and you shouldn't be either. Give me the Cyclones.
Rutgers at (19)Michigan(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Rutgers defense has looked sound, but Noah Vedral isn't going to beat Michigan. It's one thing to stop a good back like Sean Tucker when he doesn't really have a backup. It's quite another to get pounded mercilessly by two backs that are almost equally good. I have to think Michigan wears them down enough to eventually cover this.
UTSA at Memphis(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did Memphis pay the refs again? I think we have a right to know. If not, I like UTSA outright.
Louisville(-1.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know the consensus is that the Seminoles have to snap out of this at some point. What signs have we seen of that happening? We sure didn't see it against Wake. This feels low. Louisville is going to give up their share of points, but they're going to score a lot too.
Illinois at Purdue(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Illinois defense has looked the part even if the offense is a wreck. Purdue wins, but probably not by this much. Give me the Illini.
Kent State at Maryland(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is jumping and I don't like it. Maryland has the offensive talent to score a ton of points, but forgive me if I don't trust that defense. I really don't like the half. Still, I can't go against Maryland at home. I'm not a believer in the Kent offense.
Wyoming(-30.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Wyoming leaves Xazavian Valladay in long enough, he might set the rushing record. Give me Wyoming.
Georgia State at (23)Auburn(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This one is climbing too, but I'm not sure I trust Auburn. The Panthers have only scored 47 points in three games, so give me Auburn, I guess. I wont be betting this.
Kansas at Duke(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This should be a good one at Cameron Indoor, but that seems like a lot of points to beat a top five school by..... What? It's football? Oh. That's far less exciting. Not for Mataeo Durant. He has another shot at a career day. Give me Duke.
Arkansas State at Tulsa(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels like an overcorrection since Tulsa looked good at the Shoe for about three quarters and Ark State got sandblasted by a Washington team that looked horrible up until last week. Give me Tulsa, but there's no way I would bet this.
(24)UCLA(-4.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Let's see.....how good is Stanford? The Vanderbilt game didn't answer many questions. I know that Fresno is a good team and it still took everything Jake Haener had to knock off the Bruins. I have to stick with UCLA here.
Buffalo(-13.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Make no mistake about it. This is a really bad Old Dominion team. Buffalo by around double this!
Louisiana(-13.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still like the Cajuns enough here, but if it goes above 14, I like it a lot less. It's already at 14 in most places.
Tennessee at (11)Florida(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tennessee is heading in the right direction, but they aren't there yet. If this weren't at home and the Vols were a little better I would say that Florida might have a letdown after that tough loss to Bama. Neither of those are true. Give me Florida.
Nebraska at (20)Michigan State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Too low. Hanging with an overrated Oklahoma team is not like going into Miami and spanking the Hurricanes as a touchdown dog. If this was in Lincoln maybe, but not in East Lansing. Spartans by at least a touchdown.
(25)Kansas State at Oklahoma State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, I hope those of you in the Little Apple enjoyed being ranked for a week. Give me the Cowboys.
Kentucky(-4.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I really wish I hadn't watch Kentucky dick around and almost lose to UT-Chattanooga last week. If I hadn't, I'd go all in on this. I'm still a believer in that offense. Give me Kentucky at a little less than all in.
North Texas at Louisiana Tech(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
All right, La. Tech. You win. You got me. Now you better win!
Navy at Houston(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'll take Houston, but one of these games Navy is going to come around. I'll lower the bet in case it's here.
Southern Mississippi at (1)Alabama(-45.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is exactly the kind of line that Bama never covers. Give me Southern Miss.
West Virginia at (4)Oklahoma(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too many. I need to see this offense perform somewhere near their potential before I bet on a line like this. The Mountaineers took out a solid Virginia Tech team last week. If Oklahoma isn't careful, they're next. At this point, an outright loss is more probable than the Sooners covering this line.
Akron at (10)Ohio State(-48.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
C.J. Stroud isn't playing. Big whoop. The Buckeyes could put 41-year-old Steve Bellisari back under center and still cover this. Akron might be worse than UConn! What? Bet this? Even I'm not that crazy....
(21)North Carolina(-12.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So, is the Wreck defense that good or is the Clemson offense really that bad? I'm afraid they might be. Give me the Tarheels. They finally ran the ball like they are capable of last week.
Florida Atlantic at Air Force(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Owls are heading from sea level to nearly a mile high and from 85 degrees to 45. That's too much to overcome. Give me Air Force.
UAB at Tulane(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels backwards. Give me the Blazers straight up.
Indiana(-9.5) at Western Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Indiana should be able to cover this, but this wouldn't be the first time that the Hilltoppers sniped someone in Owensboro. I'm lowering the bet. I don't trust the Hoosier defense right now.
Troy(-23.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yuck. Stay away from this one. Give me Troy, I guess.
Hawaii(-17.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Eh.....the Aggies might not score. Give me Hawaii.
New Mexico(-1.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jacob Cowing is probably the best player on the field and he's at home. Give me the Miners.
California at Washington(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Did Washington just oversleep on the beginning of the season? It's not like Cal has been good either. Give me the Huskies at home.
South Florida at (15)BYU(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
See also: Florida Atlantic. The difference is that USF is much worse than FAU and it might be colder in Provo than Colorado Springs being it's two hours later. Give me the Cougars.
Arizona at (3)Oregon(-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, the Mildcats lost to Northern Arizona. Give me Duck U.
Oregon State at USC(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So much for a quarterback controversy. Jaxson Dart is having meniscus surgery and will miss the rest of the season, so Kedon Slovis's job is safe, at least for 2021. This still feels low. This game isn't in Corvallis. Give me the Trojans.
Colorado at Arizona State(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado was atrocious last week and that offense is one of the worst power five units right now. So why isn't the bet higher? The same reason the spread isn't. Vegas knows the same thing that I do. Arizona State is very talented, but they are a sloppy, sloppy team. I'm taking them, but I likely wont touch this.
I may be a bit shy because of the disaster at the four spot last week. I only have two five-pointers again and only went with four fours this time. I went really heavy on the threes with 19 of those. I have 12 one point bets, which means there's still a lot of uncertainty on the low end. I have 21 two-pointers, making that my most popular betting line once again. Good luck out there! Here's looking for a better week, though I'm not off to a good start with Appalachian State deliberately not scoring the touchdown that would have covered last night....
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