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Mike Marteny recaps the last great college football season with the bowl picks and final results against the spread from all 793 FBS vs. FBS games in the 2023 college football season.
The last great regular season of college football is over. We have crowned the last true champion. Now it will be whoever can get hot at the end of the season and avoid major injury. That doesn't crown a true champion. College football will lose part of what makes it great. Before we get to doomsday, let's recap the last great college football season.
I was below .500 heading into bowl season and I think I had a rough go of it in the bowls. It's really hard to keep track of all of the opt-outs, but I tried the best that I could.
Let's check out my picks' results against the spread for bowl season, and see where I ended the last great college football season. That way you know if you should listen to me next year or not.
CFB Betting Picks - 2023 Bowl Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the bad along with the good? Here are the results from this season so far. I am still updating the past year's results and adding them to the sheet. My first year of using the points system (2015) was a good one. This year hasn't been quite as good. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Army (-2.5) vs. Navy at Foxborough, MA: HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
Despite being dominated for much of the game, Navy still had a chance to win near the end of the game. So it goes in a game that is always close.
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Ohio (-2.5) at Conway, SC: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
An offense that had struggled for much of the year found a rhythm with Rickey Hunt and Parker Navarro. Makes perfect sense...
Cricket Celebration Bowl: Howard vs. Florida A&M (-6.5) at Atlanta, GA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Howard didn't get the outright win, but they stuck with the Rattlers. That's a win against the spread!
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State (-2.5) vs. Louisiana at New Orleans, LA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jacksonville State proved that they belonged in a bowl in their first FBS season with a thrilling overtime win over the Cajuns in a de facto road game.
Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State (-4.5) at Orlando, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was one of the sloppiest bowl games in history thanks to a three-hour downpour on an already saturated field at the Bounce House.
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State (-1.5) at Albuquerque, NM: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
No tattoo for Jerry Kill this year. In fact, he would rather forget this game as soon as possible.
Starco Brands L.A. Bowl: UCLA (-2.5) vs. Boise State at Inglewood, CA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ethan Garbers claimed the starting job for next year in this one. TJ Harden proved that the running back position is fine. Nothing to see here. Chip Kelly still knows offense.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California (-1.5) at Shreveport, LA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Tech's defense shut down Jaydn Ott and you don't really need receivers if you don't intend to throw the ball anyway, right Tech? This was a clinic from Texas Tech and one must wonder where this was during the regular season.
Famous Toastery Bowl: Western Kentucky (-4.5) vs. Old Dominion at Charlotte, NC: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh, what could have been for the Monarchs. They were up 28-0 17 minutes into the game and wound up losing in overtime.
Scooters Coffee Frisco Bowl: UTSA (-7.5) vs. Marshall at Frisco, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I told you that Frank Harris wasn't losing this game...except Frank Harris didn't even play because of injury. His team had his back to send him out in style.
Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: South Florida vs. Syracuse (-4.5) at Boca Raton, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I ended up hammering this on game day even though I didn't change my bet here. If Byrum Brown sticks around, South Florida could make the playoff if they improve the defense. The Bulls really couldn't have played a better game here. This was total domination.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Central Florida (-4.5) at Tampa, FL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Georgia Tech needs to send a thank you card to Nebraska for taking Jeff Sims...
76 Birmingham Bowl: Troy (-2.5) vs. Duke at Birmingham, AL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Duke defense didn't transfer out. It was not the swan song that Kimani Vidal was hoping for. Honestly, he deserved better.
Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois (-2.5) at Montgomery, AL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rocky Lombardi ended his seven-year career with a bowl win, but once again, the half saved me. The Red Wolves pitching a second-half shutout saved my hide, too.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison (-2.5) vs. Air Force at Fort Worth, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I almost flipped on this when it was announced that Jordan McCloud was still playing. The only reason that I didn't is because of what happens to a team when stars announce they are transferring. Just look at Western Kentucky and Austin Reed last year in the bowl.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Georgia State (-6.5) at Utah State at Boise, ID: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I outsmarted myself in this one. I underestimated Darren Grainger again. I should have learned that lesson a while ago.
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan at South Alabama (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A home bowl game against an overmatched team. I'm an idiot for not maxing this out. The possible quarterback controversy scared me off, but the Jags turned in the best bowl game of any team by hanging 59 points on the guys from Ypsilanti.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (-6.5) vs. Northwestern at Las Vegas, NV: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The single-game parlay of the under and Northwestern moneyline helped me come out ahead in bowl season. I hit the Northwestern money line harder than I was planning on, but it worked out.
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State (-5.5) at Honolulu, HI: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Many backup quarterbacks were starting in bowl season. Ethan Vasko fared better than most with 199 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in the upset win. He was also the de facto starting running back for the Chanticleers with 17 carries for 50 yards...
Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (-3.5) at Detroit, MI: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A big game for Darius Taylor and no Terion Stewart doomed the Falcons.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Texas State (-3.5) vs. Rice at Dallas, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The best efforts of Dean Connors couldn't keep the Bobcats out of the end zone. This is the kind of game that can advance the North Texas football program. Just take a look at some of the transfers they got for next year!
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV at Phoenix, AZ: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Devin Neal did play, but it was Jason Bean who stole the show in his final collegiate game. This performance and a strong performance at the Hula Bowl have the buzz mill going that Bean will be the first Kansas quarterback ever to be drafted into the NFL. What a journey it was for Bean. He absolutely deserves his shot!
GoBowling.com Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (-10.5) vs. Tulane at Annapolis, MD: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Michael Pratt opt-out turned me to Tech. I'm glad it did. This was rough for the Wave.
Duke's Mayo Bowl: North Carolina vs. West Virginia (-6.5) at Charlotte, NC: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was the easiest money in the history of money and I didn't max it out...on here, anyway. I made some money from the casino on this one. Enough to make sure that I didn't lose money in bowl season.
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: (15) Louisville (-6.5) vs. USC at San Diego, CA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm glad I chickened out on this one a little bit. Something called a Miller Moss (who was in the same freshman class as Jaxson Dart at USC) ripped apart a Louisville defense that had been solid most of the year.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (-1.5) at Houston, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm going to miss the Vegas love-fest for Jimbo Fisher inflating A&M lines. It made me quite a bit of money over the last few years... Oh...and Ollie Gordon is still that dude.
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: (24) SMU (-10.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Warm weather teams + cold weather outdoor bowls = disaster. I forgot basic math when I bet this.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) (-1.5) vs. Rutgers at Bronx, NY: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was Miami's fifth consecutive bowl loss and they have lost 11 of 12 since 2008. The only win was against West Virginia in 2016...in a game played in Florida. Miami is money in bowl games if you bet against them, which I do.
Pop Tarts Bowl: (18) North Carolina State vs. (25) Kansas State (-2.5) at Orlando, FL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I thought about moving on this when the public was strongly on K-State. Avery Johnson gives the Wildcats a chance at winning the wide-open Big 12 in 2024. Johnson still isn't an efficient passer, but a full offseason running with the starters should help that.
Valero Alamo Bowl: (12) Arizona (-2.5) vs. (14) Oklahoma at San Antonio, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There was a reason I didn't want to face Arizona. Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan have claimed they are staying in the desert. This was a strong first start for Jackson Arnold, but Arizona's in-game adjustments from the defense fooled him into critical turnovers at times. Maybe if Arnold had started a game or two during the regular season, it might have been different, but who knows? He kept Oklahoma in this game for three quarters. Not bad for a guy in his first start. Arizona was one of the 10 best teams after September this year.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: (22) Clemson (-5.5) vs. Kentucky at Jacksonville, FL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Barion Brown was electric in this game for Kentucky, but the defense allowing 28 fourth-quarter points snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This is particularly alarming because Mike Stoops is a defensive guy. Clemson's offense was average at best during the season and below average for the first three quarters. Kentucky has another strong transfer class, but this is going to be a tough one to get over.
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl: (19) Oregon State vs. (16) Notre Dame (-6.5) at El Paso, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If, as most expect, this is the end of Oregon State's football relevance, this game marks the beginning of the end. There was no effort. Even the guy who scored the only touchdown for the Beavers transferred out while the window was open. The window is most definitely closed for Oregon State.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Iowa State (-9.5) at Memphis: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rocco Becht looked really good for the Cyclones, but Seth Henigan was almost as good on the other side. The Memphis defense held Abu Sama to just four yards in 12 carries. Before the first quarter was over, Memphis already had three touchdowns. Iowa State never recovered.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: (7) Ohio State (-1.5) vs. (9) Missouri at Jerry World: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not entirely sure that Kyle McCord would have made that much of a difference for the Buckeyes. Missouri was a team on a mission in this one. Marvin Harrison Jr. would have, but the delaying of the decision was all for show. How many of you really thought he would play?
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: (11) Mississippi vs. (10) Penn State (-3.5) at Atlanta, GA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should have maxed this out, too. Mississippi is a good team on both sides of the ball. After seeing their transfer class on the defensive side of the ball, they could be a contender in the SEC next year.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Auburn (-6.5) vs. Maryland at Nashville, TN: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I greatly underestimated just how bad Auburn's offense is. If Payton Thorne is still the starter when the 2024 season begins, they should probably just fire Hugh Freeze then. We know who and what Thorne is. Hank Brown looked a lot better in this game than Thorne did.
Capital One Orange Bowl: (6) Georgia (-16.5) vs. (5) Florida State at Miami, FL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I forgot just how few Florida State players care enough to play in a bowl game. I ended up betting Georgia in real life but forgot to change it here. Georgia proved that they deserved a shot at a third title.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Toledo vs. Wyoming (-3.5) at Tucson, AZ: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was all over Toledo until Craig Bohl announced his retirement. The Cowboys sent him out with a win, but not a cover.
ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin vs. (13) LSU (-9.5) at Tampa, FL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
LSU's defense allowed 143 receiving yards to Will Pauling. His previous career high was 96. Garrett Nussmeier looked good running the offense. Think he can play defense? LSU needs someone who can...
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: (23) Liberty vs. (8) Oregon (-17.5) at Glendale, AZ: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game did absolutely nothing for Bo Nix and his NFL prospects. Most scouts have already made up their minds. The fans definitely have. Crucifying him for mistakes at Auburn is a little unfair at this point. Did Oregon tailor their offense to fit him? To some extent, yes. Go watch Bo Nix in his last year at Auburn and watch any tape from him this year. He's not the same player.
The coaches at Oregon helped turn him into a pro. Bo Nix playing in this game was a thank you to his coaches and the team that he respects so much that he just wanted one more game with them. That's what I miss most about the way college football used to be. Nix gained nothing by playing in this game from a professional standpoint. He did it because he loved his team.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: (17) Iowa vs. (21) Tennessee (-7.5) at Orlando, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nico Iamaleava. Remember that name. He was outstanding in his first career start against one of the best defenses in college this year. It kind of makes you question the sanity of Josh Heupel that Joe Milton was still starting in November...
Prudential Rose Bowl: (4) Alabama vs. (1) Michigan (-1.5) at Pasadena, CA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Tommy Rees -- widely regarded by talking heads, peers, and fans alike as one of the best offensive minds in the world -- comes up with that on the last play of the game. Really? It's bad enough that he sat on the ball on Alabama's last drive in regulation, allowing Michigan great field position to tie and send it to overtime, but that's what he comes up with on fourth and a trip to the title game? Nick Saban should have fired Rees before he retired.
One of my greatest pet peeves when watching a game is watching a team not only quit trying to score but quit trying to move the ball in an effort to punt and play defense. Just because your defense has been good all game means NOTHING on a final drive. The defense can't play like it has all game. You have to defend the deep pass at all costs and it screws up even the best of defenses.
I keep hoping against hope that coaches will realize this and go for the win. You don't have to take big risks, but running into the teeth of the defense three times and punting does nothing. Throw a screen. Throw a slant. Do something that's not expected. Even if the clock stops, it doesn't matter that much. Once upon a time, Mack Brown had the stones to do this and it stopped Nebraska from winning another national championship. I never thought I would say this, but someone needs to be like Mack again!
Allstate Sugar Bowl: (3) Texas (-4.5) vs. (2) Washington: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Washington nearly lost this because Dillon Johnson got hurt on the last offensive play for the Huskies and they were forced to use a timeout when they could have run the clock out for a win.
CFP National Championship: (1) Michigan (-4.5) vs. (2) Washington at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Michigan is the only team besides Utah that was able to frustrate Michael Penix Jr. the way they did. There's no dynasty here. Allegations were made. Investigations are ongoing. Jim Harbaugh bailed (for the freaking Chargers!). Sherrone Moore is the right hire, but unfortunately, he and the players left over will be the ones punished for the transgressions of this season. They may strip Michigan of the title, but it's the same as USC's "vacated" title after the 2004 season. Everyone remembers who won that game.
College Football Betting Season Results
I went a solid 24-20 in the bowl games, which puts me at 391-402 over the 793 FBS vs. FBS games this season. That's 49.31%, which falls short of the goal that I set for myself. I really wanted a winning record in the last great college football season, but so it goes. At least I gained points on the season. Here are the point totals for the bowls.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-0 (25-43) = -18
2. 6-3 (141-153) = -24
3. 10-6 (138-131) = 21
4. 6-8 (59-53) = 24
5. 1-3 (28-22) = 30
I only gained one point in the bowls this year, but it's better than a loss. This is the first year where I lost the ones and twos and gained everywhere else. I've been underwater on max bets a few times. I ended up +33 on the year, which helps make up for the abysmal 2022 season. I will be updating my spreadsheet throughout the offseason with totals from previous seasons. I started this in 2014, but I can't find all of the articles from that season. I will go as far back as 2015.
Until next year, enjoy the offseason! I will update you all on the transfer portal sometime in the coming week or two and again before the season starts. Until then, you'll find me grinding college basketball DFS and maybe pinch-hitting in baseball over the summer.
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