RADIO
It was another crazy week of upsets. Iowa gets blown out on their own field by two quarterbacks that have had trouble with consistency. There were crazy finishes in Chapel Hill, Red Stick, and San Jose to name a few. I got some right. I got some wrong. And I've got some beefs with officials.
After what I would deem well officiated games for most of the season so far, we had a plethora of pass interference penalties where the ball didn't even land in the field of play. Bring back the uncatchable pass stipulation! There's few things I hate more than a QB just throwing it up to see if they can get a penalty. It's the equivalent of flopping in the NBA. It ultimately hurts the game. The other gripe is with a lot of these roughing the passer penalties. This isn't a video game! These players can't just stop in their tracks! Just throw a red jersey on them and not allow them to be hit at all if that's what you think is a penalty!
We have nine of the 53 games this weekend before Saturday. That makes for some exciting mid-week football! I'll get those covered before we get in depth into the carnage of last week. There are 54 total games this week, but Arkansas is the first SEC team to go slumming this week taking on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Honestly, they need the break.
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Tulane at (21)SMU(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the half, but I sure do like SMU. I'll stay on the Pony Express and just lower the bet.
Florida Atlantic(-6.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yeah, neither defense is great, but this seems low. The Charlotte defense in a lot worse and N'Kosi Perry has done a lot of damage to better defenses. Give me the Owls.
Louisiana(-18.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is still rising, presumably because James Blackman is still out for the Red Wolves. I have questions about the Louisiana defense, but I have more questions about the Red Wolves stopping this stable of backs and Levi Lewis. I'll take the Cajuns.
San Jose State(-3.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Expect another ugly, ugly game. That's what the Spartans like. However, if Nick Starkel is back for this one, I may hammer the SJSU side. Vegas clearly doesn't expect him to play with the line like this. Honestly, if Starkel is out again, I wouldn't be shocked if UNLV won outright. I hate making these picks with stipulations, but the gap between Starkel and Nick Nash is so big that I have to. With Starkel, give me the Spartans with 3 confidence points. If not, UNLV for 1.
Middle Tennessee State(-14.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't care how high the spread is. I'm betting against UConn.
Memphis(-1.5) at Central Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Who knows something I don't? The youngsters on this Memphis offense are starting to make some noise and UCF is without both Dillon Gabriel and Jaylon Robinson. I like Memphis by at least a touchdown, even in Orlando.
Colorado State(-3.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm a believer in Colorado State. This team has looked really good of late. I like them for anything under a touchdown.
Washington(-17.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yes, Washington is getting better. No, I don't think they can cover this. Colorado has more talent in the passing game than Washington does. It's really hard for me to get past just how awful Arizona looked in the second half against the Ralphies, but they were doing fine for a half in that game. Washington doesn't make enough big plays to make Arizona panic. I'll take the Wildcats at home not to get covered.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 7 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I feel like I had a pretty solid week. I put about 3/4 of my betting for the week on Ohio State, so I came out well in real life. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 6. I picked 51 games and all 51 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Appalachian State(-4.5) at Louisiana: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Camerun Peoples was out, Daetrich Harrington ultimately didn't play, and really, none of their teammates really showed up either. Louisiana dominated every facet of this game.
Navy at Memphis(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the best defensive performance of the season for Memphis so far. Their run defense showed up when they didn't have to worry about getting beaten deep.
Georgia Southern at South Alabama(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jake Bentley "only" threw for 389 in this one. That actually helped Georgia Southern's average passing yards allowed per game. Bentley and the Jags also let up. They only scored ten second half points after erupting for 31 in the first 30 minutes.
Marshall(-10.5) at North Texas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Marshall did what they should in this one. It happens from time to time.
Clemson(-13.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Orange had a couple of chances to steal this one, but the Clemson defense held when they absolutely had to. How good is Sean Tucker? He still ran for 157 yards on one of the best run defenses in the country.
California at (9)Oregon(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason I advised against betting this. Travis Dye is just fine, thank you but the rest of the offense is an adventure....and not in a good way. The Ducks do not look like a top ten team right now.
(25)San Diego State(-9.5) at San Jose State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is one of the worst games I have watched all season, and I watched UConn-Vanderbilt. We're not all about negativity here. San Jose State did an excellent job locking up the stable of backs that the Aztecs have. Unfortunately for them, they still couldn't hang on in double overtime.
Central Florida at (3)Cincinnati(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati's starting quarterback, may as well have been in the stands for this one. Jerome Ford trampled the Knights for 189 yards and four touchdowns. Another methodical beatdown will likely have the Bearcats number 2 in the first CFP polls released this week.
(10)Michigan State(-4.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was an excellent performance by the Hoosier defense in this one. Holding Kenneth Walker III to 84 rushing yards is a great performance. Jack Tuttle did a solid job in place of Michael Penix, but ultimately the Spartans defense made the bigger plays.
(12)Oklahoma State at (25)Texas(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Texas defense was finally worn down by Jaylen Warren in the fourth quarter. The Longhorns blow another lead, once again because they can't stop the run. Stop me if you've heard this before.....
Auburn at (17)Arkansas(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bo Nix from the LSU game showed up. He only missed on five passes and threw for nearly 300 yards in this one. Auburn was one of the team aided by those pass interference penalties where the ball wasn't anywhere near the field of play, but they would have won anyway. Bo Nix was dropping dimes in this one.
(20)Florida(-11.5) at LSU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't think LSU would win outright, but I also didn't think Florida would allow a school-record 287 rushing yards to Tyrion Davis-Price. Sorry Clyde Edwards-Helaire, you've been replaced. Don't hate the player! Hate the Florida defense. Or hate Ed Orgeron. LSU sure does, considering they fired him after a win. I guess allowing the most points in series history gets to the administration after a while.....
(21)Texas A&M(-8.5) at Missouri: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Easy money. I'm pretty sure there are about a half dozen high school teams in Missouri that could run for 200 on this defense. I'm more than a little surprised that A&M only had 283 yards rushing.
Nebraska(-3.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Just when I think Nebraska can't look any worse, they do. Cam Taylor-Britt was the only Nebraska player that had a good game. Austin Allen did too. Those passes that were a couple of feet over his head weren't his fault. After the Cornhuskers locked up the potent Michigan and Michigan State running attacks, a fifth-stringer goes for 127 on them. Tanner Morgan, a guy who is about a 50% career passer, completes 20 of 24 passes. They played down to Minnesota just like they did against Illinois. If Trev Alberts weren't the A.D. at Nebraska, Scott Frost would be looking for a new job after this one. Nebraska has lost all five games by eight points or less.
Rutgers(-1.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Wildcats aren't nearly as bad as Nebraska made them look. Ryan Hilinski has a good grasp on this offense now and it shows. Integrating a quarterback wh0 has transferred twice, leading rushing Andrew Clair who is a transfer from Bowling Green, and leading receiver Stephon Robinson, a Kansas transfer, took a little longer than expected. Now the Wildcats can reap the rewards.
Tulsa(-8.5) at South Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew another Tulsa screwing (patent pending) was coming when I typed this up last week. This was a great effort by South Florida, but they came up just short. Timmy McClain is going to be a good one in a year or so.
Ohio at Buffalo(-7.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This Buffalo defense allowed a NCAA record 99-yard rushing touchdown to Ohio quarterback Armani Rogers. Yet the Bulls were bailed out by a penalty to win the game after they lost on a missed field goal. Did you miss MACtion as much as I did?
THE LONGEST QB RUN IN FBS HISTORY 🤯
Ohio's Armani Rogers takes it 99 yards for 6️⃣ pic.twitter.com/TQbQSgSplT
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 16, 2021
Duke at Virginia(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the worst game of Duke's season so far. That's saying a lot considering they were the first power five team that Charlotte ever beat earlier this season. The Virginia defense did a bang-up job on Mataeo Durant. The receivers dominated that "defense." Game, set, match, and money in the bank.
Ball State(-1.5) at Eastern Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Lettermans busted my double-digit win prediction, but the offense still pulled through. If you haven't watched Ball State receivers Yo'Heinz Tyler and Justin Hall yet, do yourself a favor and check them out. They're fun to watch.
Akron at Miami(OH)(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Blake Hester wasn't the reason the Zips didn't get covered. Switching to quarterback Zach Gibson did it with 291 yards and three passing touchdowns.
Troy(-7.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was an entertaining game at least. Kimani Vidal is a solid back, but the Troy line doesn't always hold up.
(11)Kentucky at (1)Georgia(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'd like to thank the Kentucky offense for punching it in with four seconds left to bust the spread. Georgia still absolutely dominated this game. There is no doubt who is number 1 right now.
Purdue at (2)Iowa(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Purdue owns Iowa. Spencer Petras threw four interceptions. Purdue beat them with dueling inconsistent quarterbacks. There's falling on your face, then there's Iowa. This was a spectacular failure. Iowa was winning games by not turning the ball over. They gave it away four times. They didn't allow big plays. David Bell was a monster with 11 catches for 240 yards. This is going to be tough for Iowa to come back from.
(19)BYU at Baylor(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Baylor run game did the work here. Abram Smith had a huge game and Trestan Ebner did Trestan Ebner things. The most important thing for the Bears here is that they proved that Gerry Bohanon doesn't have to carry this team. The Baylor run defense was impressive as well. Just an overall strong game by the Bears.
Western Kentucky(-12.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was right about the Hilltoppers winning by 20....kind of. They won by 23. I was wrong about Bailey Zappe throwing for 500 yards. He was "held" to 397, but he threw his five touchdowns, then rested his arm. Can you blame him?
UAB(-15.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's a good thing Southern Miss got a win against Grambling. Otherwise they would go winless this year.
Miami(FL) at North Carolina(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tyler Van Dyke was mistake-prone most of the game, but the Miami defense and Jaylan Knighton kept them in it even after Cam'Ron Harris went down. What can we say about North Carolina? Same Howell is a gutty player and terrific runner. Maybe they should have him play defense too. He does everything else....
Pittsburgh(-5.5) at Virginia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was domination on the defensive side by Pitt. The emergence of Israel Abanikanda makes the Panthers a dangerous team. They have veterans everywhere but running back, but if Israel keeps running like this, the rest of the vets will lead them.......somewhere warm in late December or early January.
Toledo(-4.5) at Central Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Chippewas flipped back to Daniel Richardson and it paid off. Lew Nichols III showed that he might take over as the best back in the MAC. It has been a free-for-all since Jaret Patterson left for the NFL.
Bowling Green at Northern Illinois(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bowling Green is improving, and the Huskies broke in another back. Because they were bored, I guess. Jay Ducker ran for 210 yards in the win (but not by enough points!).
Kent State at Western Michigan(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I pick Kent and they give up 64 points, including 41 in the second half alone! Name a Western Michigan player and chances are they had a career game in this one.
Arizona at Colorado(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Enjoy it, Colorado. Not everything will be this easy. An interesting development in this one was the rapport between Brendon Lewis and Brenden Rice. If Lewis can actually improve on this game, the Ralphies may be able to rally enough to salvage the season. Of course, it's Arizona, so don't get too excited. The Wildcats now have the nation's longest losing streak by a mile with UConn and UMass both winning in the last couple of weeks.
Fresno State(-3.5) at Wyoming: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really didn't think the Fresno defense was capable of shutting out anyone, especially without a strong game from Jake Haener and Jalen Cropper. I've never seen Cropper drop more than one pass. This was a forgettable game for him.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina(-18.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vanderbilt looked like they were going to get blown off the field. Not only did that not happen, but they almost swiped a SEC win. Almost. It might be coming soon. This was a spirited performance by the Commodores.
Texas Tech(-17.5) at Kansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If you looked at the stats alone you would swear this was a close game. Henry Colombi only threw for 124 yards. Most Texas Tech quarterbacks do that in a quarter! It was a feel-good game for many Red Raiders. That's the biggest takeaway for Tech.
Rice at UTSA(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Roadrunners defense not only pitched a shutout, but they scored two defensive touchdowns. My Roadrunners are finally going to ranked! Maybe that will get them some TV time! I manage to find their games, but you guys deserve to see what is still fun about college football as well.
(5)Alabama(-17.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nothing to see here. Just Alabama obliterating the unfortunate team that had to play them after a loss.
Liberty(-32.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Liberty didn't even score 33 points. On top of that, they allowed as many points in the third quarter to Monroe as they scored in the entire game to lose outright to a damn awful Monroe team. What is Liberty? I really don't know, besides impossible to bet on.
Colorado State(-10.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rams offense is all fun to watch and stuff, but how about the defense allowing just 76 yards of offense in this one? 68 of those were gained by New Mexico running back Aaron Dumas!
Utah State(-7.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was wrong about Deven Thompkins being the best player on the field. It is clearly UNLV running back Charles Williams. I'm sorry, Mr. Williams. It wont happen again.
TCU at (4)Oklahoma(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Caleb Williams love fest is intoxicating. This guy is good. Really good. So is Kennedy Brooks. However, lost in that lovefest is how poorly the Oklahoma defense played at times in this one. Max Duggan threw for 346 and four touchdowns. Both were easily career bests. Quentin Johnston is a good receiver, but not 185 yards on seven receptions and three touchdowns good. This a week after Xavier Worthy torched our secondary in Dallas. I love the lovefest, but it is dangerously overshadowing the defensive issues that Alex Grinch and company aren't fixing.
(13)Mississippi(-2.5) at Tennessee:MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a great effort by Tennessee, but they came up just short. I think they should get the points anyway for inundating the ESPN broadcast with incessant chants of "lets go" Lane Kiffin. Hey, who can blame them? He left them high and dry in the middle of the night.
(22)North Carolina State(-2.5) at Boston College: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Eagles hung around for a half, but they imploded in the third quarter. That was the worst quarter of football I've seen from Boston College this season. This catch by Devin Carter was the highlight of the night for the Wolfpack. It could be the highlight of the season!
ELITE concentration on this TD snag by Devin Carter 👏 pic.twitter.com/lcz8bxQF5c
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 17, 2021
Iowa State(-6.5) at Kansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Once again, it took Brock Purdy a couple of games to settle in. That's what is going to prevent a truly special season for the Cyclones. Well, that and the Oklahoma teams.
Stanford(-1.5) at Washington State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was an exciting win for the Cougars. Every time I watch Jayden de Laura, I really have to wonder what the coaching staff was thinking making him split time with Jarrett Guarantano. Those days are over and this is his team. Stanford is finally showing what they're made of. This isn't the team that rolled over to start the year. They're young and getting better.
Army at Wisconsin(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wisconsin led 13-0 at the end of three, but they wound up lucky to win this. These teams are more alike than most think. The only difference is that one team owns that they can't pass the ball.
UCLA at Washington(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was one of the better games that Washington has played this year and you can't really blame the loss on Dylan Morris. The defense didn't get all of the stops they needed to and the Huskies couldn't really run the ball.
Louisiana Tech(-6.5) at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not even mad! Go on with your bad selves, UTEP! I love to see it. Jacob Cowing, Deion Hankins, and Gavin Hardison are all solid players.
Air Force at Boise State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Falcons really flustered Hank Bachmeier in this one, especially in the fourth quarter. Again, Boise's inability to consistently run the ball was a major issue.
(18)Arizona State at Utah(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have been more nervous when this line evened out. Arizona State looked the part in the first half, but that was an impressive showing by the Utah defense in the second half.
Hawaii at Nevada(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Carson Strong should be more known nationally than he is. It was another huge performance for him. Hawaii RB Dae Dae Hunter wowed everyone by racking up 174 yards on just eight carries!
College Football Betting Season Results:
I went 28-23 overall, which is a pretty solid week. I'm getting closer to back to zero at 181-187 on the season. It's a long road back, but being back around 49% is a good feeling as well. I know I made some points this week, so let's check that out! Only my one and two point bets fell under, besides that wayward 5 I wasted on San Diego State.
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-6 (29-36) = -7
2. 10-11 (69-78) = -18
3. 9-4 (59-39) = 60
4. 5-0 (14-22) = -32
5. 1-2 (10-12) = -10
I ended up gaining a solid 25 points on the week. I'll take it after three consecutive losing weeks in September. I have lost 7 points on the season, but I am still up 21 points over four and a half seasons. We have another smaller week with 54 games this weekend, but Arkansas is slumming with UAPB. I have 44 more picks to make for Saturday, so stay tuned!
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