College Football Betting Expert Picks Week Seven (10/17/2020)

October 15, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and recommendations for Week 7. Every week, Nick Federline reviews some of the best available bets for the college football slate.

Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban contracted COVID-19, and it might not even be the biggest story in college football. This 2020 football season has brought so many unexpected turns of events that hall of fame coaches instructing their players over Zoom barely even registers.

Week Six brought a minor bump in the road, with a 1-2 record. Alabama got an unexpected scare before pulling away late in the second half from Ole Miss. Similarly, Notre Dame could not break loose of Florida State as the Seminoles covered the big spread behind a strong performance from quarterback Jordan Travis. Luckily in Provo, Utah, the UTSA Roadrunners gave the Cougars a scare before falling by a touchdown. The season-long record is now 9-6.

Week Seven gives us our last week of football before the Big Ten Conference starts play. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

South Florida at Temple (-10)

O/U: 54.5

Head Coach Jeff Scott spent the past five seasons as the co-offensive coordinator at Clemson before taking his first head coaching job with the South Florida Bulls. The 2020 season is off to an ugly start, with three losses by at least 20 points that followed a season-opening win over FCS-level The Citadel. Coach Scott is hoping to rejuvenate a once-proud program as he overhauled the staff and has hopes of developing a Clemson-like winning culture in Tampa. While the bumps and bruises of a young team will be felt throughout a low expectations year, Coach Scott hopes that his youth movement and young coaching staff, which is the youngest staff in the American Athletic Conference at an average age of 36.4, will pay dividends in the form of wins in the years to come.

The Temple Owls experienced significant turnover of their own this season when star defensive end Quincy Roche decided to transfer to Miami (FL). Roche is one of 8 starters from the Owls' 2019 defense who do not return this year. Despite this turnover, Coach Rod Carey feels confident that his defense can make enough stops and that his explosive offense will pace the team to a strong season. The offense is led by redshirt senior and third-year starting quarterback Anthony Russo. Russo threw for 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions a season ago, and has high hopes for a strong senior campaign, when he lines up behind a sterling offensive line with 4 seniors. Temple will hope to make the Russo-to-Branden Mack connection early and often, as Mack had 7 catches and a touchdown in the opening loss to Navy. 

When in doubt, experience wins out. With the continuity of eight offensive starters back for a senior quarterback, the Temple Owls should expect to put up a flurry of points on a team that has allowed 52, 28 and 44 points in their three losses. Coach Jeff Scott is making inroads on the recruiting trail, but the talent is not yet on campus and the process will take a few years to rebuild the South Florida Bulls into an AAC contender.

Pick: Temple -10

Western Kentucky at Alabama-Birmingham (UAB) (-13.5)

O/U: 44.5

This Conference-USA matchup is a homecoming of sorts for Western Kentucky Head Coach Tyson Helton, who spent six seasons as the quarterbacks and running backs coach at UAB. Helton's Hilltoppers are off to a slow 1-3 start this season, with former Maryland quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome at the helm. Pigrome is an above-average runner and underrated passer who gets to play behind four multi-season starting offensive linemen. The difficulty that Western Kentucky has had this season surrounds a failure to capitalize in big moments. In the team's three losses, they've converted less than one-third of their 3rd down opportunities, while allowing their opponents to convert at a clip closer to 50%. Pigrome's efficiency (6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far in 2020) and the ability to turn long drives into touchdowns rather than field goals will be crucial for the Hilltoppers if they hope to pull off the upset.

The UAB Blazers go as far as their star running back Spencer Brown will carry them. Brown has gained over 100-yards rushing in three of the team's four games so far in 2020, and is the 2nd highest active rusher in the NCAA with over 3,500 yards. Longtime starting quarterback Tyler Johnston III is still expected to miss the game due to a non-throwing shoulder injury, opening the door once more for redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero. Head Coach Bill Clark has opened up the playbook each game a bit more for the young freshman, before he threw for three touchdowns (and three interceptions) against UTSA. Coach Clark showed faith in his young quarterback and the playbook should once again be wide open for Lucero to operate. 

This matchup presents a must-win for Western Kentucky if the Hilltoppers hope to stay alive in the conference championship game hunt. With so much on the line, expect Western Kentucky to take more risks which will hopefully show up on the scoreboard. With each passing week, UAB has given the passing game more responsibilities, while leaning on the running game and Spencer Brown. If Lucero can eliminate the turnovers from the last game against UTSA, this offense should easily top its 30.5 average points per game this season.

Pick: Over 44.5

Boston College at Virginia Tech (-12)

O/U: 62

Boston College is off to an impressive 3-1 start under first-year Head Coach Jeff Hafley. Hafley has relied heavily on his Notre Dame transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who has thrown for 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this year. Jurkovec's top two targets - wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight tend Hunter Long - came up big in last week's 1-point overtime win over Pitt and will have to be a priority for the Hokies to hone in on. Boston College's defense has been a "bend, don't break" defense all season that has notched at least one interception in each game this season. The strong defensive backfield will hope to take advantage of the uneven Hokie quarterback play in 2020.

The Virginia Tech Hokies got pummeled last week in Chapel Hill by North Carolina. The defense had no solution for the Tar Heels' running game in the 56-45 loss. While the defense is in shambles, the offense has been churning at a prolific pace behind running back Khalil Herbert, a Kansas transfer, and his 10.4 yards per carry. At quarterback, junior Hendon Hooker missed the first two games after recovering from COVID-19, but returned in the loss to North Carolina. Hooker's performance was a mixed bag, with two touchdowns, but a meager 53.8% completion percentage.

Year in, year out, the Virginia Tech Hokies garner nationwide media attention and hype. For many years under Coach Frank Beamer, this hype was justified and warranted. Now, under Coach Justin Fuente, the hype is far less warranted, with only one ten-win season to his name. Boston College, meanwhile, has found a rhythm under arguably its best quarterback since Matt Ryan, and should cause problems for the Hokie defense all afternoon.

Pick: Boston College +12