College Football Betting Expert Picks for Week Sixteen (12/19/2020)

December 17, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for Week 16. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

After a tumultuous season, conference championship weekend has finally arrived.

Last week's picks were a bit of a mixed bag. Illinois' offensive play-calling was underwhelming down the stretch in a game that cost coach Lovie Smith his job. Toledo made things closer than they needed to, but were able to cover the first-half spread with a final-minute touchdown. Lastly, the Army-Navy game went under the points total for the 15th of the last 16 years, as Army cruised to a 15-0 win. The 2-2 week moves the season-long record to 30-13.

For your conference championship weekend, here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football weekend.

FRIDAY: Oregon at Southern California (USC) (-3)

O/U: 64

The Oregon Ducks weren't even supposed to be in this Pac-12 Conference Championship game. When Washington had issues stemming from COVID-19, they stepped down from the game. This opened the door for Oregon to take their place. Coach Mario Cristobal's Ducks had a disappointing abbreviated 3-2 season, including a loss to their in-state rival Oregon State. The 2-game recent losing streak is due to the dismal defensive performance in containing Oregon State, and an anemic offensive output at Cal. The Ducks will need sophomore quarterback Tyler Shough to continue keeping control of the football while also taking chances down the field. In the team's wins over Stanford, Washington State, and UCLA, Shough had a combined 9 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Star running back CJ Verdell has only touched the ball an average of eight times in the two losses due to a nagging undisclosed injury, and will have to be an important cog of the offense if Oregon hopes to pull off the upset.

USC sports a 5-0 record, but has not received the same College Football Playoff chatter as 5-0 Ohio State. The Trojans are powered by their talented passing attack led by sophomore quarterback Kedon Slovis, who should be a 2021 Heisman frontrunner. Slovis' task of moving the ball is made easy by his trio of talented future NFL receivers - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Vaughns, and Drake London. For USC to win their first Pac-12 championship since 2017, they will need the defense to show up with more force than last week's 43-38 win over UCLA. Dating back to 1990, USC is 10-3 in games that have been played on Fridays.

Both teams are used to success, with this being both USC and Oregon's fourth respective Pac-12 Championship appearance of the last decade. USC holds a 38-21-2 record in head-to-head matchups, and will hope to expand their series lead. The game can be viewed at 8:00pm ET on Friday night on FOX.

Pick: USC -3

Clemson at Notre Dame (+10.5)

O/U: 59.5

Its not often that two top-5 programs get the opportunity for a rematch in the same season, but fans are fortunate enough for another Clemson-Notre Dame showdown this Saturday. Clemson was without star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, due to COVID-19, in the first loss, but true freshman DJ Uiagalelei played outstanding in South Bend and was not the cause of the Tigers' loss. The real reason for the loss was the Clemson defense's inability to stop the Irish rushing attack. Since that game, Clemson has locked in with convincing wins over Pitt and Virginia Tech to close out the season. Coach Dabo Swinney's team will be aiming for its sixth straight ACC title in a matchup that should shape up to be its toughest ACC title game in recent memory. Clemson is in unfamiliar "must-win" territory, as there has never been a two-loss team granted a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish, aided by their participation as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, are knocking on the doorsteps of their second College Football Playoff appearance in the last three years. Coach Brian Kelly's team is not in the same "win or sit out the Playoff" predicament that Clemson is likely in, but the Fighting Irish will want to avoid giving the Committee any reason to leave them out. Star quarterback Ian Book continues to be the engine leading this team, behind arguably the best offensive line in football and a stalwart rushing attack led by Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree. At receiver, Book has huge targets in Michael "Baby Gronk" Mayer and Northwestern graduate transfer Ben Skowronek, who both caused Clemson's defensive backs a lot of issues in the first game. 

The November 7th double overtime thriller between these teams was a candidate for game of the year, alongside the BYU-Coastal Carolina classic. Notre Dame had an opportunity to close out the game, but Book fumbled at the goal line allowing Clemson to stay in the game. These two teams are very evenly matched, and should put on another exciting game in a different location this time. The rematch will be played at 4:00pm ET in Charlotte, North Carolina, and can be watched on ABC.

Pick: Notre Dame +10.5

Louisiana-Lafayette at Coastal Carolina (-3.5)

O/U: 55

The Ragin' Cajuns kicked 2020 off with a dominant road upset of Iowa State, who is now playing in the Big 12 Championship game. Aside from a narrow 30-27 home loss in early October to the Chanticleers, the Ragin' Cajuns have played a perfect schedule and sport a 9-1 overall record. Head coach Billy Napier has an enviable rushing attack at his disposal, with Elijah Mitchell (6.2 yards per carry), Trey Ragas (5.7 ypc) and Chris Smith (5.6 ypc) all logging significant carries at an efficient clip. Second-year starting quarterback Levi Lewis has maintained his success from the 2019 junior season on his way to 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 2020, to go along with 310 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. 2020 marks the third consecutive season that the Ragin' Cajuns will represent the Sun Belt's West Division in the conference championship game.

Coastal Carolina has been the best story in college football's 2020 season. The Chanticleers program joined the FBS ranks in 2017, and had yet to sport a winning season until this year's breakout 11-0 start. Still, even with wins over two ranked opponents (Louisiana-Lafayette and BYU), and quality wins over Appalachian State, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern, the Chants still aren't receiving much national respect. Coach Jamey Chadwell's team has melded a strong offense and an opportunistic defense to their first postseason opportunity and with their eyes on a possible January 1 bowl game. Freshman quarterback Grayson McCall thundered out of the gate on his way to an impressive season with 23 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. His top weapons on offense have been CJ Marable, a do-it-all running back with 19 touchdowns, tight end Isaiah Likely, who has broken off his share of big plays with 20.7 yards per catch, and receiver Jaivon Helligh who leads the passing attack with 52 catches and 10 touchdowns.

This game may be the best conference championship matchup this weekend, and is must-see television. The Chants will hope that their defense, led by Butkus Award semifinalist Tarron Jackson's 8.5 sacks, and safety Alex Spillum's 3 interceptions, can force some Ragin' Cajun mistakes to lead to points. For Louisiana, Coach Napier will seek to reclaim his team's stranglehold over the conference and improve his coaching resume that has had him in discussions for the various southeastern Power Five jobs that open up. The game will be played on Saturday at 3:30pm ET on ESPN.

Pick: Over 55

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