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Nick's picks, bets, and analysis for February 10 in NCAA College Basketball. Nick identifies some high-profile matchups and various spots to bet on during Saturday's college basketball slate.
Every year, the college basketball schedule reaches a point where teams are deep into conference play, and young athletes (18-21 years old) have to juggle the demands of school, travel, and life itself.
Short rest and unusual travel can wear down teams to the point where they're barely functioning.
This creates wild swings in performance, both positive and negative, which can present opportunities for savvy bettors who know where to look. Welcome to Spot SZN!
Arizona (-3 KenPom) at Colorado
10:00 PM @ CU Events Center, Boulder CO (ESPN)
I've been waiting for this spot for ages, and it just got even better. Arizona is coming off a triple-overtime win AT UTAH on Thursday night and has to travel TO BOULDER, COLORADO just two days later. If you know anything about geography, there are few travel situations more brutal than this. Meanwhile, Colorado is fresh off a home win over Arizona State and has been preparing for a rematch with the number eight-ranked Wildcats for weeks. They also recently appeared on Joe Lunardi's "First Four Out" list for the NCAA Tournament, giving them plenty of motivation to show up with their best performance to date.
I've written about the Buffaloes a few times here, most recently as a value pick to win the Pac-12. They're extremely talented but have shown inconsistency throughout the season. One such lapse came in a three-loss stretch that began with a 47-point defeat to these very same Arizona Wildcats. Top to bottom, Tad Boyle's Buffaloes will have several matchup advantages, especially on the wing, while maintaining enough size to hold Arizona's post players at bay.
Matchup
The spot is one factor, but we also need to consider how these teams match up against each other. Both are balanced on both sides of the ball, good rebounders, and prefer inside scoring to three-point shooting. I mentioned it earlier in the year, but Colorado's lack of multiple ball handlers was an issue, and they were prone to turnovers. However, they've taken better care of the ball since losing to Arizona in January. Meanwhile, Tommy Lloyd's Wildcats haven't been the turnover-forcing unit their numbers might suggest.
On paper, rebounding shouldn't be a major advantage for either side. However, Arizona dominated the paint in their previous matchup, winning the rebounding battle 45-25 and shooting 56% from the floor compared to their opponent's 36%. This was easily the Buffaloes' worst performance of the season in all phases, so I expect them to be fully focused in this bounce-back game.
The Bet
KenPom has this line at Arizona -3, which makes Colorado very appealing. These types of spots are becoming more and more priced into the market, so I expect the spread to open closer to a pick 'em. Either way, I'm comfortable backing the team from Boulder up to -2 in a phenomenal spot with potential matchup advantages. Go Buffs!
*edit I played Colorado +1.5 and still would back them up to -2
Toledo at Appalachian State (-7 KenPom)
1:00 PM @ Holmes Center, Boone NC
I love this MAC-Sunbelt conference crossover matchup with its intriguing team differences. The Toledo Rockets sit at 15-8 and second place in the MAC, while the App State Mountaineers are 19-5 and in sole possession of first place in the Sunbelt. Handicapping matchups between two mid-major conferences with similar talent profiles is always fun.
The reason I'm backing the home team in this matchup boils down to one player: Justin Abson. He's App State's answer to KC Ndefo from Saint Peter's magical run a few years ago. Abson is an insane shot blocker and post defender, averaging nearly three blocks per game with lines of eight, seven, four, and three in his last four games. The Toledo Rockets shoot a large portion of their shots around the rim, making this a clash of strengths in the paint.
The difference in shot selection comes from the fact that most of Toledo's inside shots come from undersized guards and Javan Simmons. If you watched the game between App State and James Madison a few weeks ago, you know this isn't an advantage for the visitors. Abson dominated the paint. Combine that with Toledo's lack of three-point shooting and a bounce-back spot for the Mountaineers, and I see this game as an excellent matchup spot for the home team. I'm comfortable laying up to -8 at home.
Other Matchups To Watch
As of this writing, Saturday spreads haven't been released. Based on KenPom projections, here are a few games I'm eyeing:
Florida +4 over Auburn
Bounce back home spot for Florida who’s facing an Auburn team off massive win over rival Alabama. Florida has the size to hang down low and their guards have been playing well as of late. Home dog szn
Kentucky -3 over Gonzaga
Defense is still a massive question mark for the Wildcats, but they are infinitely more talented than Gonzaga in this matchup despite how close the metrics have these teams. Kentucky can score with anyone, and a few stops should lead to a comfortable 5-10 point victory here.
Kansas -3 over Baylor
Baylor has looked good in a few recent wins while Kansas is coming off a loss to in-state rival Kansas State. A good home spot for the Jayhawks where the Bears could struggle mightily with turnovers and an off-night shooting. I doubt this line is under 4, but would feel comfortable backing the Jayhawks up to -6.
Akron +5 over James Madison
Another huge MAC-Sunbelt crossover game. Akron thrives scoring in the post, where JMU has been susceptible the last few weeks. I’ll play the Zips down to +3.
Follow me @DrRoddy_ on Twitter/X for all of my official college basketball bets. Best of luck if you tail. Let’s find some winners!
