X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Which Cody Bellinger Will We Get In 2022?

cody bellinger fantasy baseball draft sleepers MLB injury news

Is Cody Bellinger a 2022 fantasy baseball draft sleeper and ADP value? He went from MVP to fantasy baseball bust. Jon determines his 2022 fantasy draft value.

Cody Bellinger had one of the better seasons you will ever see in 2019 at the ripe age of 24 years old. In 660 plate appearances, he smashed 47 homers and drove in 115 runs while scoring 121 times and posting an elite slash line of .305/.406/.629. He was just 24 years old at the time and he was setting up to be one of the game's best hitters for years to come.

Nobody really expected him to repeat that insane performance, but nobody expected him to fall flat either - and it turns out that largely is what he has done.

With back-to-back disappointing seasons following up an MVP campaign, what can we reasonably expect from the talented slugger in 2022?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

A Big Fall

I've combined his 2020 and 2021 stats for comparison's sake, here's what it looks like:

Year PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG K% BB%
2019 661 121 47 115 15 .305 .401 .629 16.3% 14.3%
20-21 593 72 22 66 9 .195 .277 .365 22.9% 10.2%

You can see substantial declines everywhere. That OBP the last two seasons is really striking, coming down more than 120 points from that 2019 total. So what's been going on with Bellinger? Was 2019 just a total mirage? Has he been very unlucky since then? Has he been playing hurt? There's probably at least a little bit of truth to all of these, but let's do our best to narrow it down.

 

Swing Data

Let's check on some more advanced stats here.

Swing% - The percent of pitches you see that you swing at
Cont% - The percent of the time you make contact (fair or foul) on your swings
Chase% - The percent of pitches outside of the strike zone that you swing at
Brl% - The percent of balls in play that is classified as "barrels"; the most productive category of batted balls
Solid% - The percent of balls in play that is classified as "solid contact"; the second-most productive category of batted balls

Year Swing% Cont% Chase% Brl% Solid%
2019 44.6% 78.2% 23.7% 13.0% 6.6%
20-21 49.9% 74.9% 29.6% 8.1% 7.8%

We see Bellinger swinging more, chasing more (those go hand-in-hand), and making less contact. When he has made contact, it's been much less forceful contact as evidenced by the five-point drop in barrel rate. Keep in mind that a 74.9% contact rate is not a horrible mark, the league average in 2021 was 76%. You can still have an awesome fantasy season with a below-average contact rate provided you are making the most out of the times when you are making contact. Bellinger has not been doing that.

Let's take one step further to view how the pitches he has put in play line up.

 

BIP Data

Year Avg Velo Max Velo GB% LD%% FB%
2019 90.9 110.6 32.3% 29.9% 30.3%
20-21 89.1 110.6 35.2% 25.3% 29.6%

The differences here aren't very stark. You can see a slight decline in average exit velocity, and just a slight trade between GB% and LD% (in the direction you don't want to see).

What this table does not show is that his max exit velocity in 2021 was just 107.4. This is 10 or more miles per hour below the elite names in the league, so just seeing that makes it not so surprising that Bellinger has not been an elite source of homers. Max exit velocity can only tell us so much, but it does, in this case, suggest that Bellinger was not swinging the bat with the same force as he had been in past seasons.

 

The Shoulder Injury

Predicting the future often requires a lot of speculation, so let's put those glasses on now. Bellinger had surgery on his right shoulder in November of 2020. That shoulder had been dislocated "several" times that year, which did not keep him off the field very much but did seemingly affect his performance. The Dodgers opted to get it taken care of after the season when the recovery time would allow him to not miss any of the 2021 season. He did indeed not miss any time at the beginning of the year due to the shoulder, but even his manager admitted that he thought it was majorly affecting his performance.

It seems perfectly reasonable that not having a 100% healthy front shoulder would do a number on your ability to swing a bat when the goal is hitting baseballs thrown by Major League pitchers. I mean, that's a hard enough thing to do when everything is working right.

 

What About 2022?

Like it or not, fantasy baseball is largely about guesswork. What we have here is a guy that was among the best hitters in the game in 2019 at a very young age, who fell completely flat the next two seasons. That does not make a ton of sense. Maybe the shoulder stuff was just noise, just a cop-out excuse the Dodgers used, but it seems more likely to me that it really did factor in. We have to pick a side here, and I would much rather be on the side of putting too much blame on a bum shoulder than not enough blame on it.

So that leaves us with a 26-year-old former MVP on the league's best offense that is currently being drafted outside of the top- 100 picks. That upside at that pick seems to justify the risk. By selecting Bellinger, you are betting on his shoulder being better in 2022 than in 2021, which is quite likely but not a guarantee. I would imagine that six months off and a year and a half removed from the surgery should set him up pretty well for the 2022 season.

Bellinger will be one of the most interesting players to watch in Spring Training to see how hard he is hitting the ball. If we see him come out and pop a few balls at 113 miles per hour, we'll be able to feel pretty confident about his health. For now, I'm drafting Bellinger and hoping for the best.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF