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Several NFL head coaches are on the hot seat and could be fired midseason, including Urban Meyer in Jacksonville and Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. What is the fantasy football fallout in these situations?
The first NFL head coach who didn't make it through the 2021 season was Jon Gruden, although not at all for reasons anyone would have anticipated (except Keyshawn Johnson). The Gruden story alludes to a larger problem within the league and society as a whole but this piece isn't meant to serve as a platform to engage in that dialogue.
The fact is that each year there are likely to be multiple coaches who are fired or resign before the season ends, usually due to poor performance. According to Pro Football Reference.com, there have been 87 coaches fired midseason over the past 51 years, which equates to 1.7 per season. Gruden's case was an exception, as the Raiders started out 3-0 before losing the past two weeks, but his termination had nothing to do with on-field issues. Some other coaches have plenty of reason to worry and it has nothing to do with their inboxes.
As we enter Week 6 of the regular season, let's evaluate the coaches with the hottest seats in the NFL right now, including some surprising names.
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Jacksonville Jaguars - Urban Meyer
This one couldn't be more obvious. There was speculation after Week 2 that Meyer would quit simply because he couldn't bear losing back-to-back games, something that he hadn't experienced in his time as a college coach. Then surfaced a viral video of him having a leisurely time at a nightclub following another loss, which would be acceptable if not for the fact he was spending quality time with a female whose name wasn't Mrs. Meyer.
There's plenty more fuel that has been added to the fire, including his decision not to fly back with the team after their last loss. Add in questionable playcalling decisions and the fact they have yet to win and the proverbial hot seat is practically engulfed in flames. Keep in mind this is still just five weeks into the season. The only positive on Meyer's resume at this point is that he won't be the first coach canned.
Urban Meyer reading this tweet pic.twitter.com/71QkvZfZc8
— dannyPfizer (@dannyjesus) October 12, 2021
Fantasy Fallout: The Jags were 1-15 last year and owned the No. 1 pick for a reason - they stink. The selection of Trevor Lawrence alone should have made this team good enough to win a couple of games but they somehow look worse. There's nowhere to go but up obviously, but a removal of the grand distraction he has caused along with some actual structure and guidance for a young team should push Lawrence's development along and make their most talented disappointments like Laviska Shenault Jr. fantasy relevant. That said, there is still not much to love about this offense outside of James Robinson now that he's actually getting the ball again.
Chicago Bears - Matt Nagy
Things are cooling down considerably in the Windy City and not just because fall is... falling? The Bears kicked off the season getting smoked by the Rams 34-14 in prime time, barely squeaked by the Bengals in Week 2, then lost by 20 to the Browns to land at 1-2 with a total of 40 points scored in three games. Then Nagy took the effort to retrieve a shovel and began digging his own grave deeper by announcing that Andy Dalton would be the starting quarterback as soon as he was healthy. This did not sit well with Bears fans or anyone who has ever watched football in any capacity.
Fortunately, Dalton hasn't returned to the field and playcalling duties were reluctantly handed over to Bill Lazor again. Lo and behold, the Bears began scoring points. Not a lot, mind you, but they at least cracked 20 in their past two games, both victories. The transition to a rookie quarterback and loss of David Montgomery to injury will excuse any offensive struggles over the next few weeks, so Nagy has a temporary reprieve.
Weekly Villain Power Rankings:
5.) Matt Nagy 📉
4.) Kyrie Irving 📈
3.) Politics (-)
2.) Urban Meyer 📈
1.) Jon Gruden 📈Just Missed The Cut:
- Amazon drivers who place packages against the front screen door
- Flo From Progressive— Shooter McGavin (@ShooterMcGavin_) October 11, 2021
The upcoming schedule is a fearsome one with Green Bay, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh over the next four weeks. If they can pull out at least one win heading into the Week 10 bye, the Bears will be 4-5 and primed to get their leading rusher back to complement a more seasoned Fields. If they go 0-4 over that stretch or fall flat coming off the bye, Nagy's seat warms up considerably as their playoff hopes will start dwindling.
Fantasy Fallout: If Nagy gets the axe in-season, it would likely come after a road contest to Green Bay in Week 14. By then, their potential playoff path would be clearly delineated and two of their next four games would be with division rivals Minnesota. In that case, it would be all Fields the rest of the way and the reins would be let loose for him to make plays with his arm and legs.
The Seahawks and Giants are the other two teams on the Bears' fantasy playoff schedule, so we could see more postseason heroics from David Montgomery and Allen Robinson as we did a year ago. Don't forget, in Weeks 14-16 of 2020, A-Rob averaged 7.7 receptions and 103 yards per game. Fields would be an intriguing streamer too, so don't bail yet if you have space to stash him. It appears Nagy and GM Ryan Pace may survive 2021 but don't underestimate his ability to shoot himself in the foot.
Minnesota Vikings - Mike Zimmer
If not for a last-second victory over Carolina in Week 5, Zimmer might have been facing angry mobs outside the new Metrodome (fine, U.S. Bank Stadium *sigh). Captain Kirk Cousins put together a 40-yard drive to set up a 54-yard field goal with three seconds left to lead the Vikings over... the Lions??
Had Detroit snapped their winless streak and dropped Minnesota to 1-4, the fanbase would be calling for Zimmer's head. It's already ugly and could get worse if they lose to Carolina before the bye week because they'll have four consecutive games against teams with winning records including the Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers, and Packers. They've alternated between good offense and good defense, never syncing the two together at the same time. Having a healthy Dalvin Cook back after Week 6 will help but it's not as if Alexander Mattison has been a slouch, rushing for more than 110 yards twice in the past three games.
As a former defensive coordinator for 14 years before taking over as Minnesota's head coach the past eight years, Zimmer's calling card is a formidable front seven. The team was bottom-five in both rushing and passing defense last year and currently sit at 17th in total yards allowed. The one positive is a sack total of 17 that is second-highest in the NFL. The issue has been inconsistency and the team not finding ways to win close games often enough. Zimmer has an overall winning record as the chief in Minnesota at 66-50-1 but could be wearing out his welcome with another losing season.
Fantasy Fallout: I put the chances of Zimmer getting fired at just under 25% but it would have been closer to 50% had they lost to Detroit. They could still do so in Week 13 but that's a ways off. Nothing much will change in the Twin Cities because new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will retain father Gary Kubiak's offense in place. Dalvin Cook is a stud when healthy, no questions asked. Same goes for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
Sometimes a fired coach can leave a lame duck QB in his wake. In this case, Kirk Cousins has been solid and still has one year left on his contract. If anything, he might get even more fired up with a new coach around.
OH? #skol pic.twitter.com/N8f7KOPsrp
— Syd Casper (@CasperSyd) October 10, 2021
Miami Dolphins - Brian Flores
In his second year as head coach, Flores took the upstart Dolphins to the brink of a wild card berth. If not for a Week 17 shellacking at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, Miami would have been in the postseason for the first time since 2016. A more experienced Tua Tagovailoa, additional weapons at receiver, and a veteran-laden defense made them favorites to contend for a playoff spot once in 2021.
Instead, Dolfans have been treated to a 1-4 record that could easily be 0-5 if not for a late fumble by Damien Harris to secure a one-point victory over New England. It's easy to point to injuries, especially with their starting QB out the last three weeks and multiple receivers missing Week 5, but that can't excuse their defense. With no major players missing extended time yet, a defense that ranked sixth in points allowed and forced the most turnovers last year is now ranked 30th in points allowed and is bottom-10 in both rushing and passing yards allowed. Their six turnovers are middle of the pack and nine sacks is tied for sixth-fewest.
A defensive-minded coach and former pupil of Bill Belichick isn't supposed to allow such failures on defense but it's clear something has gone wrong with this team. While Twitter gossip isn't the ideal source for information, there is some smoke rising about Flores losing the locker room (according to whoever runs the Twitter account for the gym that Tua works out at). Well, it sure looks like the team quit after getting blown out by Tampa in Week 5.
— Jeremy Klump (@NUTTYxPROFESSOR) October 11, 2021
Fantasy Fallout: Admittedly, there is a small chance Flores doesn't make it through the season but the team may have some hard decisions to make before it's all said and done. There seems to be a disconnect between coach and quarterback that may extend to the front office. The Deshaun Watson rumors persist and it sounds as if the team isn't tied to Tua beyond 2021 if he doesn't have a good showing. That could mean another chance for Flores or he could be gone too. It would take an extended losing streak to get Flores fired but losing to Jacksonville in Week 6 would turn the temperature up in a hurry.
Sadly, an interim head coach doesn't hold much more promise for the offense, which is what we care about in fantasy. The defense could easily return to last year's form but the receiving corps is constantly banged up and Tagovailoa simply hasn't had enough time to develop as a pro passer. Outside of Myles Gaskin and Mike Gesicki in PPR leagues, this team is still one to mostly avoid.
The Safe Zone
There are a few coaches with worse records and less experience than the ones mentioned above who are not in jeopardy of losing their jobs. That would be nearly every member of the rookie coaching class, with the exception of Meyer. It's extremely rare for a first-year head coach to not last at least through one full season.
Since the year 2000, an NFL head coach has been fired after his first season 10 times since the year 2000, but never midseason. In that respect, Meyer could wind up being a trendsetter.
To end on a positive, rookie head coach Brandon Staley is 4-1 and the Chargers look like a legitimate contender to win their division. At least someone is safe.
Update.
Through 5 games, here are the W-L records for each NFL rookie head coach:
Dan Campbell: 0-5
Urban Meyer: 0-5
Robert Saleh: 1-4
David Culley: 1-4
Arthur Smith: 2-3
Nick Sirianni: 2-3Brandon Staley: 4-1#BoltUp https://t.co/1Bfw1dxJhQ
— Veiled⚡ (@LightningVeiled) October 11, 2021
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