Year-In-Review: Indians Pitching Staff

December 4, 2020

Mike Schwarzenbach evaluates the 2020 fantasy baseball season for the Cleveland Indians starting pitching rotation to determine their outlook for next season.

What a wild and wacky MLB season that was. Between the rule changes, schedule adjustments, and constant fear the whole thing could come crashing down, 2020 certainly presented a unique set of challenges to our national past time.

One of the biggest challenges within the game, however, was hitting the Cleveland Indians pitching staff. The Tribe led baseball in most major pitching categories including FIP, SIERA, strikeouts, SwStr%, and WAR. In fact, according to FanGraphs WAR, the Cleveland pitching staff was worth 11.2 WAR over the 60 game season. Minnesota was a distant second at 9.9.

This is just a long way of saying that Indians pitchers were really good this season. Whether it was Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, MLB saves leader Brad Hand, or late-season sensation Triston McKenzie, there was no shortage of fantasy production coming out of Northeast Ohio. But was this dominance a result of the pandemic-shortened season or would a larger sample-size pull Cleveland back to the pack? Let's break down what made Cleveland so special in a truly unique season.

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Historical Trends

Maybe it's coaching, maybe it's organizational philosophy, or maybe there's something in the wind coming off Lake Erie, but the Indians have had one of the most dominant pitching staffs in the Majors well before their exceptional 2020 campaign.

The chart below details the Indians' ranks in strikeouts, FIP, SIERA, and Swinging Strike rate. The Tribe is top-10 in all categories across all four seasons, proving 2020 was no small-sample fluke.

The natural reaction is to credit pitching coach Carl Willis, who has been with the team since 2018 but has a long history with the organization (including a stint as pitching coach from 2003-2009 when Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia came up through the organization and won back-to-back Cy Young awards).

Giving all the credit to Willis, however, would be like giving Santa Claus all the credit on Christmas morning. Sure, the big man brings plenty of socks and underwear, but the PlayStation 5 that is the Cleveland pitching staff is the result of organizational philosophy led by Manager Terry Francona, President of Baseball operations Chris Antonetti, and General Manager Mike Chernoff, all of whom have been in Cleveland since at least 2013.

Given the organizational leadership, it's reasonable to believe the team is doing something correctly that other teams are not. This offers optimism that Bieber can continue to pitch at an ace level, McKenzie could get even better, and any pitcher who goes to Cleveland should be given a second-look from fantasy managers as the Indians just may know something the rest of us don't.

Starting a Trend

Cleveland's pitching success starts in the rotation. Indians starters are consistently at or near the top of the MLB-leaderboard in innings pitched. The 2020 rotation led the Majors in innings pitched by over 25 innings and while they had just one complete game, Cleveland led baseball in complete games from 2017-2019. Clearly, Francona is not afraid to let his starters work.

In addition to pitching deeper into the game than every other pitching staff, Cleveland starters dominated just about every major pitching category.

The headliner is obviously Bieber who was the best starter in fantasy by most ranking metrics. You can read a more in-depth review of Bieber's greatness here, but the short version is The Biebs was virtually unhittable during his Cy Young-campaign. Bieber led the Majors in ERA, FIP, K%, and was top-10 in just about every skill-based pitching metric. He's a bonafide ace and worthy of a first-round pick in 2021 fantasy drafts.

The success of the starters goes well beyond Beiber. Carlos Carrasco continued his inspirational return from Leukemia to post his lowest ERA since 2014. Carrasco has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league averaging more than 10 K/9 every season since 2016. At age 33, Cookie is showing no signs of slowing down as his average fastball velocity was exactly the same as it was in 2019.

Digging deeper, Cleveland got great work out of Zach Plesac who pitched to a 2.28 ERA. Luck may be involved to some degree as his FIP was a full run higher at 3.39, but Plesac came up through the Indians' organization and improved his swinging-strike rate 4.8 percent over his rookie year. This was a dominant pitcher in 2018 at Triple-A with a K% over 30%. Bet on Plesac having another strong 2021.

Aaron Civale is another 25-year old starter who came up through the Indians' system. Unlike Plesac, he struggled in 74.1 innings this season seeing his ERA skyrocket over four. However, there are some encouraging signs like an xFIP of 3.92 along with a year-over-year improvement in his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate. Write off 2020 struggles to a .333 BABIP and 15% HR/FB rate, both well above MLB average.

Finally, we have the 23-year-old McKenzie who hadn't pitched above Double-A prior to 2020. Despite a lack of experience, McKenzie flashed at the Big League level with a 3.24 ERA in 33.1 innings. He struck out 43 batters in those innings and posted a strong 12.4% SwStr%. A look at his minor league track record shows this is a talented pitching prospect who will be one of my favorite breakout pitchers to target in 2021 drafts.

The Pen Is Mightier

As filthy as the starters were, the bullpen was no slouch either. Cleveland ranked top-five in bullpen ERA, WHIP, and K%. Hand led the Majors with 16 saves and pitched to a microscopic 0.77 WHIP with a solid 2.05 ERA. Reliever stats, however, are unreliable over a 162-game season due to small sample size so his 60-game stat line should be taken with a grain of salt.

Cleveland already declined Hand's $10 million option for 2021 making the 30-year old a free agent. This should pave the way for James Karinchak or Nick Writgren to take over the closer role.

Karinchak was one of the top prospects in the Indians' farm system and was otherworldly in his first taste of the Majors. The right-hander led all qualified relievers in strikeout-rate and expected batting average against while piling up 53 strikeouts in just 27 innings. Karinchak was a must-roster player this season due to his dominance in ratios and strikeouts. He should be a top-15 reliever moving forward even if he doesn't record a save (unlikely).

Conclusion

Just about every pitcher on the Cleveland roster who pitched significant innings was fantasy relevant. How to value each pitcher in 2021 drafts will ultimately come down to where average draft position settles, but Cleveland should have all five projected starters get drafted in fantasy.

Bieber will be one of the top-three pitchers drafted and Carrasco should settle in as a top-25 starter. The real value will come down to where fantasy managers can draft the likes of Civale, Plesac, and McKenzie, all of whom are young arms who came up through the Cleveland pitching factory.

Finally, if the team lands any pitching prospects when/if they trade Francisco Lindor, maybe add that player to your dynasty roster.

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